CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/01/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161969
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: January 11, 1957

APProved for Release: 2019/12/04 C03161969,
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3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2)
11 January 1957
Copy No. 131
fpxuATTH. 70-
EVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TO!' SECRET
for Release: 2019/12/04 C03161969
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLA:;;:3.
I DECLAFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
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Alw Aipb.
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CONTENTS
1. OPPOSITION STRENGTH WORRIES GOMULKA REGIME
(page 3).
2. SHOWDOWN IN ALGERIA MAY BE NEAR
(page 5).
3. ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER ADAMANT ON GULF OF AQABA
AND GAZA ISSUES (page 6).
4. USSR PROMISES TO CONSIDER FURTHER AID TO EGYPT
(page 7).
5. YUGOSLAVS OFFER SUPPORT TO YEMEN
(page 9).
6. JAPANESE MAY ENGAGE IN SAUDI ARABIAN OIL DEVELOP-
MENT (page 10).
70 THE NEW BRITISH PRIME MINISTER
(page 11).
ANNEX-- Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee (page 12).
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1. OPPOSITION STRENGTH WORRIES GOMULKA REGIME
The Gomulka regime is
disconcerted by
the extent to which the pro-Soviet "Natolin"
elements within the Polish United Workers'
(Communist) Party (PZPR) have succeeded
in fomenting opposition during the campaign
for the parliamentary elections of 20 Janu-
ary.
Natolin elements have taken advantage of
the chauvinist feelings of the population to stimulate antiminor-
ity, particularly anti-Semitic, sentiment. The increasing
frequency and severity of incidents have placed the regime at
a political disadvantage by forcing it to defend the minorities.
A whispering campaign is also being conducted to defame re-
gime leaders by charging them with Nazi collaboration or
Stalinist associations.
The movement to urge voters to scratch
from the single electoral list the names of regime leaders,
PZPR candidates and prominent figures in favor of local can-
didates has gained momentum. Voters are also being encour-
aged to believe that since the election results will be rigged
anyway they might as well abstain.
As a result of these tactics, party leaders
are reportedly now afraid that a number of central committee
members will not be elected and that in many regions party
members will be defeated by nonparty candidates.
Comment The regime press has charged the opposi-
tion with attempting to sabotage the elec-
tions, and politburo member Morawski complained publicly
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on 2 January that those "negativists" within the party who
oppose Poland's independent road to socialism "do not shrink
from unworthy methods of struggle in order to maintain their
position:'
The press has also charged, in a thinly
veiled reference to Poland's Communist neighbors, that "all
those abroad" who are hostile to changes in Poland would not
fail to take advantage of opportunities to "blacken Poland as
an unenlightened backward country not deserving independence:'
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2. SHOWDOWN IN ALGERIA MAY BE NEAR
a
major showdown among the rebels, the
European settlers and the French admin-
istration may occur shortly before or
during the UN discussion of the Algerian
problem late this month. The American
consul general in Algiers believes it is
likely to involve considerable bloodshed.
The rebels, who recently accelerated
their terrorist attacks, have called for an "immense national
manifestation" through a week-long general strike to coincide
with the UN debate. a general Mos-
lem "insurrectional' strike may start on 12 January.
Simultaneously, tension is reported mount-
ing at an alarming rate among European Algerians who fear
abandonment by France. Indications are that French extrem-
ists are preparing to counter further Moslem unrest with a
substantial show of their own force and that they maybe supported
by at least some elements of the French military which has
largely taken over administrative operations in Algeria. This
danger is pointed up by the arrest in late December of a French
general charged with plotting to overthrow Minister Robert
Lacoste and establish an Algerian republic controlled by the
settlers.
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3. ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER ADAMANT ON GULF OF
AQABA AND GAZA ISSUES
Israeli prime minister Ben-Gurion
told Ambassador Lawson on 8 January
that while Israel "has no territorial am-
bitions anywhere in Sinai," it "has to
have" the Gulf of Aqaba waterway. Ben-
urion said, o more will we be subject to Nazi.% whims
or charity. If he tries to re-establish the blockade, then
we shall have to start shooting'
The prime minister reiterated that he
cannot permit Egypt to regain authority in the Gaza strip
and that he believes a UN force there could not control
Egyptian fedayeen activity. He hinted that he would like
to see Israeli police control maintained under UN supervi-
sion if this would satisfy world opinion.
Comment The Israeli cabinet reportedly met on
10 January to consider its position on
further withdrawal from Sinai. Israel's demands regard-
ing Gaza and Aqaba will probably be supported by Britain
and France. The British UN delegate told Ambassador
Lodge on 9 January that "we would be worse off than before
29 October" if no changes are made in the Gaza and Aqaba
situations.
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4. USSR PROMISES TO CONSIDER FURTHER AID TO EGYPT
the USSR will not confine
itself to the military assistance which
it has already promise u to give Egypt
but "will look into" continuing to give it
in the future,
He added that the USSR will also look into giv-
ing future economic assistance.
41e USSR may not be able to give economic aid to
Egypt immediately because of the long-range nature of Soviet
planning and Moscow's economic aid programs to the Hungar-
ians "and others!'
Comment Egypt provided Mos-
cow with arms data to serve as a guide
in estimating the extent of Egypt's future military require-
ments. Although no new contracts are currently being dis-
cussed, Shepilov's statements suggest the USSR is consider-
ing the long-range underwriting of Egypt's military establish-
ment.
Although of benefit to Egypt, Soviet eco-
nomic support has thus far been negligible in terms of the
USSR's resources. The USSR has been delivering some wheat
and refined petroleum products, but these are presumably to
be paid for in cotton under trade agreements previously signed.
Wheat deliveries impose no strain on the USSR, since the 1956
grain crop exceeded all previous records by about 20,000,000
tons. The Egyptian need for petroleum products will decline
with the reopening of the Suez Canal.
The USSR hopes that Egypt will lead Arab
resistance to current American policy in the Middle East. For
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this reason, the Soviet Union probably intends to offer in-
creased military and economic assistance to Egypt. In
terms of purely economic capabilities, the Soviet Union
could readily undertake even the maximum Egyptian de-
mand--the construction of the Aswan High Dam.
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YUGOSLAVS OFFER SUPPORT TO YEMEN
Belgrade was fully prepared to support
Yemen both in and out of the United
Nations,
Comment Support for Yemen in its quarrels with
the British Protectorate of Aden would
be consistent with the main aims of Tito's policy in the Near
East: increasing his prestige among, and support from, the
uncommitted nations of the Arab-Asian area. This policy
has strained his Western relationships, particularly with
Britain, but Tito may also feel that its similarity with Soviet
policy in the area can be used to advantage in his dealing with
Moscow on other matters.
Yugoslav officials have privately claimed
to American officials that their country would act as a mod-
erating influence in the Near East, particularly with Nasr,
but Belgrade's public stand has completely supported those
Arab nations which it claims are suffering from Western "co-
lonialism:' The Yugoslays shipped some military materiel of
their own manufacture earlier this year to Egypt and Syria,
and their ships have transported Soviet bloc military goods,
most recently to Syria.
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6. JAPANESE MAY ENGAGE IN SAUDI ARABIAN
OIL DEVELOPMENT
Comment
A Saudi Arabian oil concession to the
Japanese would be the first to a non-
American organization. Japanese interest in such a deal
is probably great as Japan imports about 96 percent of its
crude oil requirements, largely from Saudi Arabia and Ku-
wait.
There are now no assigned oil develop-
ment concessions in the western half of Saudi Arabia. The
American-owned Arabian-American Oil Company has surren-
dered concession rights in part of this unassigned area.
King Saud has reportedly accepted an
invitation to visit Japan in May.
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7. THE NEW BRITISH PRIME MINISTER
The 62-year-old British chancellor of
the exchequer, Harold Macmillan, who
became prime minister on 10 January,
is a forceful initiator of progressive
domestic policies and a champion of closer relations with
the Continent. In view of his intimate association with the
Suez intervention, however, Macmillan will inherit most
of Eden's difficulties in trying to restore confidence in a
Conservative British government.
The new prime minister is given the
main credit for having persuaded the Conservative Party
to endorse the government's decision to withdraw its forces
from Egypt. Macmillan also probably reaped political ad-
vantage from the fairly widespread resentment within the
party at R. A. Butler--the "heir apparent"--for his "fence
sitting," especially during Eden's absence in Jamaica. The
speed with which Macmillan took measures to prevent a
serious financial crisis after Suez received a favorable pub-
lic reception.
Macmillan's first action was to announce
that he would not call an early general election. The gov-
ernment's first chance to assess initial public reaction to the
change in leadership, therefore, will come in three pending
by-elections in marginal constituencies.
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ANNEX
Watch Report 336, 10 January 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against the continental US or its possessions in the
immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against US forces abroad, US allies or areas periph-
eral to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East
is improbable in the immediate future.*
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