NID: ROMANIA: NEW REGIME UNDER FIRE, STILL HAS LEAD

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826844
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: January 11, 1990

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826844
Of--""-Th`refig
Special Analysis
ROMANIA: New Regime Under Fire, Still has Lead
The National Satiation Front (ESN) is taking pains to avoid the kind
of economic hardship that would make for unrest before the national
election, set for April, and appears well-situated to get through the
winter. The Front remains the favorite to win the election, though the
skepticism of students and workers might still improve the chances of the
nascent, poorly organized opposition parties, pa,ticularly if the rote is
delayed.
The new regime is giving high priority to avoiding shortages of
essential goods and services that could spark %side unrest. It has taken
steps to ensure an adequate supply of food and energy, including
halting all agricultural exports, which are worth more than SI billion
For its longer term economic needs. Romania is moving to improve
its relations with the West. The FSN has rescinded Ceausescu's
earlier renunciation of most-favored-nation trttcle status with the US
has stated its interest in establishing relations with the EC
Unless the decrepit local distribution system breaks down completely,
the FSN is in an excellent position to get through the winter without
major unrest. The Soviet decision to continue iupplying energy %ill
help, and roughly half of Romania's energy will continue to come
from the Middle East. Bucharest has enough fc-reign exchange to pay
for several months of such imports.
Population Still Wary
The FSN is under fire even as it moces to guar.mtee the freedom to
organize political parties. minority rights. and Crecdom of assembly
and travel and to restore economic activity anc security. The Front's
ellbrts to portray itself' as embodying national consensus have failed
to mollify a population that is suspicious it mews to entrench itself.
Many Romanians disbelieve Front claims that it meauto_b_e_aniv_an_
umbrella organization uniting prodemocracy gtoups.
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�rmrilreret�_
Romanian Political Mrties and Organizations:
The Emerging and the Moribund
The National Peasant Party, a dominant party until forced to disband in 1947. is the best
organized of the oppositicn groups and claims to have thousands of supporters. Its program
includes return to traditional Christian values, democracy. nationalism�"true patriotism
like President Reagan's--and social justice. It favors a return to private farming.
The National Liberal Part. a major force in Romania until 1946. has called for a liberalized
economy, educational reform. and a return to a constitutional monarchy under ex-King
Michael. The Liberals stat tcd publishing the first opposition newspaper. Libeadul. on
Monday. A representative has said they are in contact with the National Peasant Par* to
present a common list of candidates.
Thc Romanian Democratic Party models itself on Western social democratic parties and calls
for free elections in the sec.:�nd half of the year, free trade unions, and continued membership
in the Warsaw Pact.
The Romanian Ecological :Movement supports the National Salvation Front (FSN) program
but maintains its right to criticize it.
The Hungarian Democratic Forum. created to represent 2 million ethnic Hungarians�
Romania's largest ethnic minority�emphasizes support of the FSN's democratic values. It
has announced it will probably field candidates under the FSN.
The Democratic Forum of Romanian Germans reportedly has organized in almost all towns
with ethnic Germans. Romania's 230,000 ethnic Germans probably cannot sustain an
independent political par*.
The 3.8 million-member Communist Party has virtually disintegrated in the face of the
anti-Ccausescu revolt. Eve!' if it tries to come back with a new name and rhetoric, it may not
survive. A small group of Communists on 30 December called for an emergency congress to
dissolve the party and transfer its assets to the FSN. but the FSN is distancing itself from the
Communists. indicating it does not want their assets.
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ICS 2709/90
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icie
Students. widely regarded as the moral force that overthrew
Ccaus.:scu. are particularly vocal critics. In Bucharest Sunday more
than 2.000 students protested the presence of Communist holdovers
and unknown figures in the transitional government, demanded
educational reforms, and threatened new mass protests. Students
dismissed the six student representati��cs on the II-member FSN
Executive Council last week as puppets, and thousands of students
reporwdly have demonstrated recently in Braila and Galati.
southeastern cities.
Waillitig on Election Timing
At least six new political panics�none yet registered�and other
opposition groups appear to agree that the national election should be
postponed. They claim an carly election will unfairly help the Front,
which Almost totally controls the mass media. The groups also cite
lack of such resources as tele hones v ewriters, and office space: as
slowin3 their efforts.
The FSN has indicated some flexibility on election timing but still
appears committed to an early date. Spokesman Silviu Brucan has
said tit: FSN would consider a formal request for postponement and
has prc�posed roundtable talks with opposition parties. President
Ilieseu has said the election may be delayed a month. but Prime
Ministi:r Rom n i � sticking with the FSN's original commitment.
Opposition groups probably cannot seriously challenge the FSN by
April. In addition to its organizational and logistic advantages, the
Front can take credit for restoring stability and improving food and
energy supplies. The opposition parties' chances may improve if the
election is delayed and they can win better access to the media.
Nevertheless, unless their inexperienced leaders can build broad
alliancts and produce coherent programs, or the FSN abuses its
power ..nough to alienate ordinary Romanian c steps are not
likely to he enough.
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11 January 1990
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826844