NID: USSR: BALTS TO MARK 1939 ANNIVERSARY TOMORROW

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826766
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: August 22, 1989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826766
Special Analysis
USSR:
Balls To Mark 1939 Anniversary Tomorrow
Nationalists in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are planning
demonstrations tomorrow to mark the 50th anniversary of Me
Molotov-von Ribbentrop pact. Although Moscow reportedly intends
to renounce the treaty', party officials are trying to play down its
significance, fearful that radical nationalists in the Baltic and other
non-Russian republics will exploit the renunciation in their drive for
independence. Pragmatic Baltic leaders are trying to dampen local
expectations about what they regard as a largely symbolic issue.
Popular fronts and independence groups are organizing a human
chain that will link the three Baltic capitals for 15 minutes tomorrow
evening. More than 600,000 demonstrators are expected to be on
hand to cover the some 600 kilometers from Tallinn through Riga to
Vilnius. Lithuanian nationalist groups are sponsoring mass meetings
tonight and tomorrow afternoon, while the Latvian National
Independence Movement today concludes in Riga a two-day
international conference�attended by US and West German
Government officials�on national self-determination
Both Baltic nationalists and symp:i:hetic republic party officials want
to keep pressure on Moscow to denounce the 1939 pact and its secret
protocols, which they believe led to the Soviet takeover of the region
in July 1940. The popular fronts have organized massive petition
drives calling for nullifying the pact and withdrawing the "occupation
forces." Last week a Lithuanian legislative commission declared the
pact and the Soviet takeover illegal, and the Estonian party leader
denounced the treaty and called for its abrogation.
Moscow Gets Cold Feet
The Baits are frustrated by what they regard as Moscow's
foot-dragging. The Congress of People's Deputies commission formed
in May to investigate the pact was expected to have published its
findings earlier this month. By late last month the commission had
finished its draft report, which reportedly recommends that Moscow
admit the secret protocols exist and nullify the pact
however, President Gorbachev reportedly has delayed
announcing the findings until after tomorrow's anniversary.
Politburo member and international affairs chief Yakovlev, who
chaired the commission, said last week in Pravda that the report
would be submitted to the Congress this fall.
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�T0P-Soczet_
Stalin and Hitler Divvy Up Eastern Europe
A treaty of mutual nonaggression between the USSR and Germany was signed in Moscow on
23 August 1939 by Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov and German Foreign Minister von
Ribbentrop. Additional secret protocols defined the Soviet and German spheres of influence:
� A secret agreement accompanying the original treaty assigned Estonia, Latvia, and
Moldavia (then part of Romania) to the USSR.
� Two protocols signed on 28 September 1939 demarcated the border between the
USSR and Germany after the collapse of Poland, confirmed the Soviet occupation
of the western Ukraine and Belorussia, and assigned Lithuania to the Soviet sphere of
influence.
The original versions of the Molotov-von Ribbentrop pact and the secret protocols
apparently do not exist, but copy of them are in archives in the West. In June President
Gorbachev said no authentic copy could be found in Soviet repositories. Since last year
Baltic periodicals have been printing Western versions of the secret agreements, including a
photocopy of the 23 August 1939 protocol supplied to the Lithuanian party newspaper by the
West German Foreign Ministry. The party journal Arguments and Facts recently became the
first central publication to print the protocols.
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The delay in publishing the report probably reflects stiffening
opposition among leaders in Moscow to Baltic nationalism. They also
probably are worried about the consequences of rcnouncin thc act.
Yakovlev's lengthy Pravda interview and a statement by party
international affairs department chief Falin in kresti3w yesterday,
have argued that, while Germany and the USSR admittedly
cooperated to divide up Eastern Europe. the pact has no bearing on
the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states in 1940 and that any
discussion of their current legal status must consider today's political
realities. Foreign Ministry officials reportedly oppose releasing the
report because of fears about reactions in Belorussia, the Ukraine,
and Moldavia. Moscow also may be concerned about exacerbating
tensions in the wake of last week's strikes by Russian workers in
Estonia.
Outlook
Moscow's renunciation of the Molotov�von Ribbentrop pact will
help the Baltic nationalist movements by supporting their argument
for independence. The most radical groups will push for republic
referendums on secession from the USSR or the convening of popular
congresses to declare independence. Others ma call on Moscow to
renegotiate the status of the Baltic republicsLJ
More pragmatic nationalists, however, realize that the victory will be
largely symbolic and are trying to dampen local expectations. They do
not want to jeopardize a long-term strategy for achieving sovereignty
by a quixotic demand for immediate independence. The Lithuanian
popular front chairman last week urged people not to overestimate
the importance of tomorrow's anniversary because annulment of the
pact will not change Lithuania's legal status. Lithuanian and Estonian
party officials also have recently cautioned that the Baltic republics
will have to work within the exist in Soviet system to achieve
autonomy.
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