NID: CZECHOSLOVAKIA: THE NEXT DOMINO

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826784
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: November 13, 1989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826784
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CZECHOSLOVAKIA: The Next Domino
Czechoslovakia's hardline regime has been badly shaken by
developments in East Germany and Bulgaria, and its demise is probably
only a matter of time and circumstance.
There is evidence that the ruling elite is demoralized.
part 3 General Sccrctary Jakes tried to tender his resignation last
Wednesday at a secret presidium meeting convened to discuss East
German developments.
Disscnt is also beginning to creep into the power structure. Vasil
Mohorita. head of the official Socialist Youth Union and member of
the party Central Committee's Secretariat, has publicly criticized the
slow pace of domestic change and argued for a more open youth
organization that would permit more diversity of opinion.
Comment: The attempt to resign by Jakes probably reflects his
recognition that he and his allies cannot cope with the reforms
sweeping the region. The regime's demoralization has been reinforced
by Bulgarian leader Zhivkov's abrupt departure from power, leaving
Czeenoslovakia and Romania the only Warsaw Pact states that have
failed to join the reform process.
If thcy can persuade a disheartened Jakes to stay on, Prague's
hardliners can cling to power for the next several months because
internal party opposition and social pressures for change remain
unfocused. Jakes and his allies, however, probably cannot cling to
power beyond the party congress scheduled for next May�they
almoit certainly would step aside in favor of younger party leaders at
that point.
Change could occur more rapidly if moderate forces within the party
begin to take their cue from events in surrounding countries or if
popu ar political activism expands significantly beyond the roughly
10.0(0 people who have been willing to take to the streets in recent
demcnstrations. Leadership changes could be set in motion as early
as nect month at the Central Committee plenum set for 9-10
Dece:nber: there have been rumors some members of the old guard
will step down.
5
TC'S 2963/89
13 Novembt.r 1989
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826784