NID: USSR: BALTIC NATIONALISTS PRESS AHEAD

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826754
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: July 31, 1989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826754
Special Analysis
USSR: Baltic Nationalists Press Ahead
Baltic nationalists and republic party sympathizers in Lithuania and
Estonia are testing the limits of President Gorbacher's reform campaign
and moving to institutionalize republic sovereignty. By putting into
place daring reform programs and cutting organizational ties to
Moscow, they hope to establish de facto independence as a prelude to a
push for outright separation. Moscow will not allow the Baltic republics
to secede but is prepared to grant them wide latitude in shaping local
autonomy.
Frustrated with the slow pace of perestroyka. Baltic officials,
especially in Lithuania and Estonia. are pressing ahead with radical
plans for economic and political reform. On Thursday the Supreme
Soviet approved plans to institute republic self-financing in all three
Baltic republics in January 1990�a year ahead of schedule�and to
allow Lithuania and Estonia to proceed with controversial proposals
for economic independence. At the same time, the Lithuanian
legislature approved draft electoral laws that go beyond Gorbachev's
political reform scheme in radically restructuring the republic state
system.
Baltic organizations arc now separating from Moscow. In Lithuania
the party has called a congress this fall to consider breaking with the
So % jet Communist Party. the Komsomol is severing tics to Moscow,
and a group of militia officials has even suggested the republic's
Internal-Affairs Ministry be independent. Officials in Lithuania
and Estonia are also building their own international relations.
Lithuania's party chief visited Warsaw last month and signed a
bilateral cultural cooperation program with Polish leader Jaruzelski;
the Estonian premier headed a delegation to Malaysia, which
reportedly refused Estonia's request for official status, to discuss joint
venture opportunities.
Growing cooperation between nationalistic party organizations and
popular-front activists is accelerating the pace of Baltic assertiveness.
The top republic party leaders. reformists Gorbachev appointed last
year, arc ousting orthodox officials, publicly supporting many
popular-front positions, and putting key moderates in leadership
posts. They are acting out of political necessity�opinion polls give
the local party organizations less than 10 percent of the vote in free
elections�but also are increasingly confident about showing
nationalist sympathies. Popular-front leaders in Estonia and
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continued
"Tobrece.L.
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USSR: Moscow's Indulgence
Moscow is prepared to accommodate many Baltic nationalist
demands in order to help local party organizations gain legitimacy. to
use the more advanced Baltic economics to support economic reform
programs, and to bolster President Gorbachev's campaign of political
decentralization. Gorbachev last month told Baltic deputies to the
national Congress that he was ready to give them a great deal short of
secession, although he also has indirectly warned them against taking
measures that would harm local minorities, including ethnic
Russians.
Moscow
told the Estonians they could not have a separate foreign policy,
army, or currency but were otherwise free to act. Even in those
areas, however, Moscow has shown signs of compromise. In June
Lithuanian party chief Brazauskas reportedly implied Gorbachev had
approved a republic convertible currency for foreign transactions.
Gorbachev
had ruled out using military force against Estonian nationalists.
-Trp-, see.L_
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Lithuania were recently made deputy premiers and given leading
roles in implementing republic economic autonomy. Events are
moving more slowly in Latvia. where only 54 percent of the
population is Latvian. largely because the orthodox. Russian-
dominated party organization has cooperated much less with
nationalists in the popular front.
Exploiting Perestroyka
Party nationalists and popular-front members in Lithuania and
Estonia ultimately want complete statehood but for now arc willing
to work within the system. A Lithuanian popular-front
will work toward full
independence from the USSR within the law.
the Lithuanian party chief said last month that all
ithuanians share the goal of full independence but that economic
autonomy and firm relations with the West are needed first.
By using legal and political channels. the Baltic republics are
exploiting Gorbachev's program to decentralize power and create a
state governed by law, not men. Republic party chiefs meet regularly
with central leaders, especially Gorbachev and party ideology chief
Medvedev. who seem to understand that in the Baltics party officials
must display nationalist leanings if they are to have political
influence. Under Gorbachev, the Politburo has seriously criticized
the Baltic nationalists only when they have publicly promoted
secession, making them confident that Moscow will not Ilse force
against them if they stay within the law.
How Far Will Moscow Let It Go?
Gorbachev is concerned nonetheless that an orthodox backlash to
Baltic developments could undermine his entire reform program.
The unrest in the Caucasus and Central Asia also may compel him
to take a firmer line on Baltic autonomy. For now the Lithuanians
and Estonians will avoid the direct confrontation with Moscow a
declaration of independence would bring and will focus instead on
the hard bargaining needed to win Moscow's annroval for their
radical reform programs
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17:01-13) Met--
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The CPSU and Hopes for the Future
In May, a poll by party and academic organizations asked 2,000 Soviets: hich
organization's activities are linked to your hopes for an improvement in the state of in
the coututy!Thc response:
To 'Set
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31 July 1989
Congress of People's Deputies
Party as a whole
Pan y Politburo
Party Central Committee
68 percent
45 percent
32 percent
30 percent
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