CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/12/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169438
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: December 9, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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/1/71/07/03/007A
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18� Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
TO SECRET
9 December 1956
Copy No. 112
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CONTENTS
1. HUNGARIAN REGIME DECLARES MARTIAL LAW TO
COMBAT WORKERS (page 3).
2. JORDANIAN CHIEF OF STAFF SEES NO AGGRESSIVE
ISRAELI DESIGN AT PRESENT (page 5).
3. YUGOSLAV ATTITUDE TOWARD HUNGARY
(page 6).
4. NEW DELHI ORDERS PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN AGAINST
PAKISTAN (page 7).
5. GUATEMALAN REVOLT AND PRESIDENT'S ASSASSIN TION
REPORTEDLY PLANNED FOR 20 DECEMBE (page 8).
6. LAOTIAN PREMIER PUSHES COALITION WITH PATHET LAO
(page 9).
7. CHINESE COMMUNIST RAILWAY OPPOSITE TAIWAN COM-
PLETED (page 10).
8. LIBERIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS AUTHORIZATION FOR DIPLO-
MATIC RELATIONS WITH COMMUNISTS page 11).
9 Dec 56
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1. HUNGARIAN REGIME DECLARES MARTIAL LAW TO
COMBAT WORKERS
Warned by the workers that its policies
could lead to renewed fighting and another
"national tragedy" the Hungarian regime
on 9 December declared a state of mar-
tial law throughout the country. Simul-
taneously, it ordered the dissolution of
the Central Budapest Workers' Council--
the leading force of the opposition--and
all district workers' councils, which
allegedly have engaged in "counterrevolu-
tionary" activities. The regime also ordered all citizens own-
ing "unlicensed arms" to surrender them to police authorities
by the evening of 11 December or face "summary jurisdiction."
These drastic moves will probably lead to
new outbreaks of violence and fresh waves of refugees. This in
turn might lead to the dismissal of Premier Kadar and a severe
tightening of Soviet control over the Hungarian government and
people. The Kada,r regime has met with a succession of fail-
ures in its five-week attempt to restore civil and economic or-
der; its authority is based almost entirely on the presence of
Soviet troops.
The workers' councils, on the other hand,
apparently have the support of the vast majority of the general
population. Virtually all production workers except those in
certain public service industries will probably go on strike.
According to press sources, the Central Workers' Council of
Budapest had issued a call for a 48-hour general strike on
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8 December, even before the government decreed martial
law, in protest over the arrests of council representatives,
workers, students and intellectuals.
Normal telecommunication contact be-
tween Budapest and the West was severed, presumably by
the regime, during the morning (Budapest time) of 9 Decem-
ber,
0
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L JORDANIAN CHIEF OF STAFF SEES NO AGGRESSIVE
ISRAELI DESIGN AT PRESENT
Jordanian chief of staff Nuwar told a
UN truce officer on 3 December he does
not believe Israel has aggressive de-
signs on Jordan at present. Nuwar said
he does believe there is a scheme afoot
"to put pressure on Syria;' but he appears
to have a generally relaxed attitude.
The UN officer told the American consu-
late general in Jerusalem that UN teams
ire making daily inspections of the Israeli frontier opposite
Syria and similar tours every other day of the frontier op-
posite Jordan, and that these inspections continue to indicate
there are no unusual Israeli troop concentrations in the area.
The American army attach d in Tel Aviv
now estimates Israeli active strength at 80,000, including
paramilitary units. This is approximately the normal level
at which Israel maintained its active duty force prior to the
mobilization for the attack on Egypt.
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3., YUGOSLAV ATTITUDE TOWARD HUNGARY
In a conversation with Western ambassa-
dors on 5 December, Tito said he was in
the midst of negotiations with the Soviet
Union on Hungary and asked for more
faith in Yugoslav policy. Tito advised
the West to keep hands off at this time
because Western efforts to help would
only be harmful.
Tito said that the Hungarians were being
punished for having defeated the Soviet army. The Soviet
leaders had a real fear of war, particularly after the rebels
had demonstrated their power. Under these circumstances
the Yugoslays could not have supported a solution involving
Hungarian neutrality. He added that the Yugoslays would
continue to support greater liberty for the Hungarians, but
that "socialism" must be preserved.
On 7 December, Yugoslav vice president
Kardelj told the National Assembly that Yugoslavia had ac-
cepted the second Soviet intervention in the hope that it would
lead to a Hungarian regime, including Nagy elementsattuned
to the desires of the working masses. Such an orientation,
he said, could have been accomplished through the workers'
councils, which represented true socialist tendencies. He
said the Kadar government had displayed other tendencies, as
illustrated by the violation of the agreement on Nagy, and he
clearly implied that the Yugoslays might eventually drop all
support for Kadar as well as their acquiescence in the Soviet
intervention.
Comment Belgrade apparently intended the withdrawal
of its ambassador to Budapest to put pressure
on the Soviet Union over Hungary, and it is continuing the ex-
change of notes with the Kadar government over the Nagy ab-
duction.
9 Dec 56
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4.. NEW DELHI ORDERS PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN
AGAINST PAKISTAN
The Indian message charges that
Pakistani prime minister Suhrawardy in a 2 December
speech had defended the British-French invasion of Egypt
and had justified Pakistan's membership in the Baghdad
pact on the basis of the danger of an attack by India.
� Comment Pakistan and India have for some time
been engaged in an open struggle for in-
fluence in the Middle East. The Indian Foreign Ministry ap-
parently decided to use Suhrawardy's speech as the occasion
for an all-out campaign to discredit Pakistan among its
Moslem neighbors.
New Delhi has also recently indicated
it is increasingly concerned about a possible Pakistani at-
tack in Kashmirl but there is no evidence to support such
concern. It appears likely that the Indian campaigns against
Pakistan both at home and in the Middle East are intended
as propaganda preparation for Prime Minister Nehru's visit
to the United States and Pakistan's presentation of the Kashmir
Issue to the United Nations in January.
9 Dec 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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5.. GUATEMALAN REVOLT AND PRESIDENT'S ASSASSINATION
REPORTEDLY PLANNED FOR 20 DECEMBER
A Guatemalan exile, is
ready to enter Guateilictld 11 UM actiVador
to kill President Castillo' Armas,
The as-
sassination attempt is to coincide with a revolt now set for about
20 December. Exiled Guatemalan colonel Elfego Monzon, re-
portedly to become chief of a military junta if the revolt suc-
ceeds, said on 4 December that $1,000,000 worth of weapons
are presently cached in Guatemala near the Mexican border.
Comment Leaders in the current plotting belong to
a faction which has opposed co-operation
with the Communists. Nevertheless, there probably are some
pro-Communists working with them.
Activities among the Guatemalan exiles in
Costa Rica and Mexico since mid-November suggest that an
effort to oust the Castillo regime is planned for the near future.
Castillo's assassination is probably the only way in which the
exiles might seize the government. Even then, however, it is
probable that army associates of Castillo. -would retain power.
The majority of active officers are loyal to Castillo. The exiles
have probably overestimated the strength of local opposition to
Castillo.
9 Dec 56
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6, LAOTIAN PREMIER PUSHES COALITION WITH PATHET LAO
Laotian premier Souvanna Phouma
is determined to push ahead with his
plan for a coalition government with the
Pathet Lao. Despite the cabinet's earlier rejection of his coal-
ition proposal, Souvanna considers it the "only answer" to the
Pathet problem and plans to ask assembly approval on 10 or
11 December. Souvanna has indicated he is willing to risk
loss of American aid to achieve this goal and has threatened to
resign if rebuffed by the assembly.
Crown Prince Savang seems confident
that the assembly will reject coalition and that Souvanna will
be forced to step down. Savang has also referred to acute dis-
content in the Laotian army over Souvanna's concessions to the
Pathet Lao and has hinted at the possibility of a coup.
.. the Pa nets nave been vigorously courting sup-
port among the assembly deputies. Tending to offset this strong
influence is the assembly's fear that admission of the Pathets
into the cabinet may compromise Western support of Laos.
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7, CHINESE COMMUNIST RAILWAY OPPOSITE
TAIWAN COMPLETED
Tracklaying on the railway running
across Fukien Province to the coastal
port of Amoy opposite Taiwan was
completed on 7 December, according
to a Peiping announcement.
The railway will
probably not be in full operation, how-
ever, until some time early next year.
The line will greatly increase the
Chinese Communists capability to deliver military supplies
to the Taiwan Straits area. Completion of the railroad also
enhances the value of Amoy as a commercial port, but use
of the harbor by merchant vessels would require the neutrali-
zation of Nationalist artillery positions on Quemoy and Little
Quemoy Islands
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8. LIBERIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS AUTHORIZATION FOR
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH COMMUNISTS
President Tubman, in his annual
message to the Liberian legislature
on 30 November, recommended
authorization for the progressive
establishment, "as resources permit;' of diplomatic rela-
tions with a number of countries, including the USSR and
Communist China. Tubman indicated that financial prob-
lems arising from Liberia's development program would
not permit the opening of all the new diplomatic posts at
once, "not even in the immediate future:'
Tubman subsequently informed the
American embassy that he did not want the Communists in
Liberia and that he will proceed carefully. The embassy
believes Tubman will not exchange missions with the USSR
in the near future.
Comment In a joint communiqu�ith the USSR
last January, Tubman agreed in prin-
ciple to an exchange of diplomatic representatives subject
to the legislature's approval and appropriation of the neces-
sary funds. Although Tubman apparently still hopes to
defer indefinitely the actual establishment of diplomatic
ties, he will probably be under increasing pressure to com-
plete the arrangements, especially if the Gold Coast, Liberia's
chief rival for prestige in West Africa, enters into formal re-
lations with the USSR after it gains independence next March.
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