CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/03/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179153
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: March 16, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
TOP SECRET
16 March 1956 3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS ea
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: IXO 10
AUTH; HR 70-2
DATE' 144 1'1;3�
Copy No, 1 (I
oft qt
fiEvIEWER*
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
717
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CONTENTS
1. USSR POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AN ATOMIC-POWERED
(page 3).
2. JAPANESE-SOVIET NEGOTIATIONS SEEN REACHING
TURNING POINT (Secret Noforn) (page 4),
3. SHAH DISCOURAGED OVER AMERICAN AID OFFER
(page 5).
4. NASR REVIEWS NEAR EAST PROBLEMS
(page 6).
5. POLISH pE_ORLE' PRIVATELY REJOICE AT DEATH OF
BIERUT (page 7).
6. PRO-PATHET ASSEMBLYMAN EXPLOITS LAOTIAN
POLITICAL CRISIS (page 8).
7. PROMINENT SINGAPORE CHINESE MAY VISIT PEIPING
(page 9).
16 Mar 56
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 10)
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1. USSR POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AN ATOMIC-
POWERED SUBMARINE
Comment
On 12 February Pravda announced
that a Soviet shipyard had begun prep-
arations to construct an atomic-powered icebreaker sched-
uled in the Sixth Five-Year Plan. Production of such a
vessel would involve approximately the same technological
skills necessary to produce an atomic-powered submarine.
Soviet delegates to the Geneva "Atoms
for Peace" conference in 1955 provided sufficient evidence
of Soviet progress in the development of industrial and re-
search reactors to indicate that a Soviet reactor suitable
for submarine propulsion could be in an advanced state of
development.
In view of the tremendously increased
effectiveness of nuclear-powered submarine over conven-
tional units, it appears likely that when experimentation is
completed, a production program of nuclear-powered sub-
marines will supplant at least a part of the present large-
scale "W"- and "Z"-class submarine programs.
(Concurred in by ORR and OSI)
16 Mar 56
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2. JAPANESE-SOVIET NEGOTIATIONS SEEN REACHING
TURNING POINT
The Japanese Foreign Ministry re-
portedly believes that the next meet-
ing of the Japanese and Soviet nego-
tiators at London, on 17 March, will
be a turning point at which Tokyo must
decide whether to accept Moscow's pro-
posals or recess the talks indefinitely.
General agreement has been reached on
all major issues except that of territory, and Soviet dele-
gate Malik has asserted that if Japan will be satisfied with
the unconditional return of Shikotan and the Habomai Islands,
the unresolved question of naval navigation of the Japan Sea
will "settle itself."
Malik emphatically asserted on 10 Feb-
ruary and again on 9 March that the question of the return
of Sakhalin and the Kurils is closed as far as the USSR is
concerned. However, in mid-February the Soviet chief of
mission in Tokyo, who has served as an intermediary for
informal approaches to Japan, hinted that "under certain
circumstances"--probably a reference to US return of the
Ryukyu and Bonin Islands�the USSR might make further con-
cessions in the Southern Kurils.
Reports indicate that the Japanese may
base their final decision on the results of their talks with
Secretary. Dulles on 18 and 19 March. This suggests that
Tokyo may seek an American commitment to return the
Ryukyu and Bonin Islands in order to bolster Japan's bid for
the return of the Southern Kurils.
16 Mar 56
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3. SHAH DISCOUFLAGED OVER AMERICAN AID OFFER
The Shah considers an AmerIcan aid
offer to Iran of $20,000,000 for budget
assistance unacceptable,
He re-
portedly says he must cancel plans for
improving the Iranian army and for ex-
panding badly needed social services.
The Shah stated that when he visits the
Soviet Union later this year, he will be unable to counter
Soviet allegations that the West is "leading him down the
garden path." He asked, "What can I tell my people if the
Russians offer gifts?"
He also told an American embassy offi-
cial that the United States probably would not give sufficient
aid "until you have a Nasr where I sit."
Comment The Shah has been expecting a large
increase in American aid since Iran
joined the Baghdad pact in October 1955. During his re-
cent trip to India, he told American officials that he hoped
for $75,000,000 a year for the next three years�
Iran might ask an additional $35,000,000 grant
to meet even larger budget deficits than expected.
The Shah's discouragement may lead to
a slackening of his efforts toward financial reform and may
bring increasing neutralist pressure to accent any proffered
aid from the Soviet bloc�
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4. NASR REVIEWS NEAR EAST PROBLEMS
In the course of a general review of
pressing Near Eastern problems,
Egyptian prime minister Nasr told
Ambassador Byroade he did not be-
lieve there will be war between Isi7ael and the Arab states.
Nasr categorically stated, on his word as a soldier, that
Egypt would not start a war, and said he believed Arab
strength would keep the Israelis from starting one.
Nasr said he has reliable reports that
Israel is receiving considerable materiel, other than air-
craft, from Europe. He also quoted Israeli sources re-
garding extensive Israeli recruiting activity in Europe,
Latin America and South Africa. He said that if Israel
obtained pilots by this means, Egypt might have little
alternative to recruiting similar "volunteers" from out-
side the Arab world.
The prime minister saw little prospect
for immediate action on the Johnston plan for Jordan valley
development. The principal obstacle, in his view, is Syria,
where extreme nationalism and army meddling in politics
have created a dangerous situation. Nasr said he felt strongly
that something should be done about Syria, but was at a loss
to say what.
Comment Nasr's comments appear to be closely
tailored for Western consumption. His
"no war" statement in particular is probably designed to
counter the publicized British accusation that recent Arab
actions have increased the danger of war. While the Egyp-
tian air force is short of pilots, the statement regarding the
possibility of recruiting foreign "volunteers" for the air
force is probably designed to encourage the West to place
restrictions on Israeli recruiting.
16 Mar 56
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5. POLISH PEOPLE PRIVATELY REJOICE AT DEATH
OF BIERUT
The Polish people, most of whom are
rejoicing privately over the death of
First Secretary Bierut of the Polish
United Workers (Communist) Party,
are mystified over the suddenness of
his death and suspect that it was due
to unnatural causes, according to the
American embassy in Warsaw. They
note that although Bierut allegedly had
been ill since late February, no public mention or indica-
tion of his illness was made until his death on 12 March.
Comment
The Polish reaction toward Bierut's
death is symptomatic of the widespread
hatred of the Communist regime, despite its adoption of
more moderate policies since Stalin's death and its effort
to instill popular confidence in its action.
16 Mar 56
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6. PRO-PATHET ASSEMBLYMAN EXPLOITS LAOTIAN
POLITICAL CRISIS
16 Mar 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
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7. PROMINENT SINGAPORE CHINESE MAY VISIT PEIPING
A Chinese Communist "team" arrived
in Singapore on 11 March to invite the
president, vice president, and six
other leading members of the local Chi-
nese Chamber of Commerce to make an expense-paid tour
of Communist China,
?eiping's emissaries
apparently were anxious that such a delegation be in China
next month at the same time Singapore's Chief Minister
Marshall is in London negotiating for the colony's political
independence.
influential mem-
bers of the local Chinese Chamber of Commerce are di-
vided on whether to accept the invitation, and that the Brit-
ish governor, who has been informed, has not yet commented.
Comment
British authorities in Singapore and Malaya
heretofore have not permitted Chinese trav-
eling to Communist China to return. By inducing "respectable"
businessmen to visit China at this time, Peiping could reason-
ably hope to embarrass the British as well as enhance Peiping's
rapidly growing prestige among the local Chinese.
16 Mar 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 15 March)
Israel, accord-
ing to the Arab Legion,
began plowing portions
of "long-disputed land"
between the Jordan and
Yarmuk Rivers on the
morning of 14 March.
The area is probably
the Naharayim area
where the Yarmuk
flows into the Jordan,
an area in dispute be-
tween Jordan and
Israel since the 1949
armistice. Israel
probably hopes to bol-
ster its claim to the
land by rotting it to
use
All Israeli ar-
my units south of
Beersheba, except
one reinforced com-
pany within the El Auja
demilitarized zone,
and units at Eilat, on
the Gulf of Aqaba,were
withdrawn to the Beer-
sheba defense line dur-
ing the night of 7
March,
Israel may fee
that such a withdrawal
16 Mar 56
THE FRONTIERS OF ISRAEL SHOWN HERE APE
THOSE TEMPORARILY ESTABLISHED BY THL
GENERAL ARMISIICE SCREEN,- NTS Bi GlEN
ISRAEL AND THE SEVERAL ARAN STATES
FINAL INTERNATIONAL STAT.. 01- U ROSA-
LEM HAS NOT YET BEEN DLO.. BY 1HE
Tel Aviv
Jaffa
GAZA
STRIP
NEUTRAL
ZONE
SHY
El Kuntilla
SINAI
15 MARCH 1956
Current Intelligence Bulletin
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is necessary to support Israel's demand for UN investiga-
tion of Egyptian troop concentrations near the Israel border
which Israel claims are in violation of the armistice ree-
ment.
Israeli reserviOt not already on active
duty have been placed on an alert status,
The director general of the Israeli prime
minister's office predicted to Ambassador Lawson on 14 March
that Israel would have to try to obtain jet airplanes from the
� Soviet Union unless "some arrangement could be worked to ob-
tain them from the West within the next week or two!' Prime
Minister Ben-Gurion reportedly is skeptical that the USSR
would make jets available, but feels the attempt must be made
if only for the record.
Some 110 Israeli naval' personnel are to
leave by air for England on 19 March to complete the comple-
ment of the 2 Israeli destroyers now fitting out there
King Saud has told the Yemeni ambassacor
that the first shipment of airplanes and antiaircraft guns would
be sent to Saudi Arabia "next week." The ambassador added
that Saud recommends Yemen's "entrance into tke alliance!' ,
16 Mar 56
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