CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/07/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161866
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: July 13, 1956

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13 July 1956 3.5(c)
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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
Copy No. 105
t'OCUMENT NO.
1,J0 CHANGE IN GL 03.
E ] DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE�
ADUATTHEi HR 7 ;a
"r7 REVIEWER
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
z
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CONTENTS
1. NEW SOVIET DISARMAMENT OFFER ACCEPTS HIGHER
ARMED FORCES LIMITS (page 3).
2. IRAQI CHIEF OF STAFF MAKES "LAST-HOUR" APPEAL
FOR MORE US AR* (page 4).
3. NEGOTIATIONS FOR AN ICELANDIC GOVERNMENT
(page 5).
4. JAPANESE DIPLOMATS FORESEE NO SOVIET CONCESSIONS
IN RENEWED PEACE TALKS (page 6).
50 BRITISH MAKE PUBLIC STATEMENT ON CYPRUS
(page 7).
6, NEW RUMANIAN OVERTURE TO FRANCE
(page 8).
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 9) �
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� 1. NEW SOVIET DISARMAMENT OFFER ACCEPTS HIGHER
ARMED FORCES LIMITS
The outstanding proposal in the four-point
disarmament plan offered by Soviet dele-
gate Gromyko in the UN Disarmament Com-
mission on 12 July was an offer to accept the
maximum limits for the armed forces of the major powers pro-
posed by the United States. These limits are higher than those
on which the USSR has been insisting since May 1955. While
sticking th the lower figures as a final goal, the USSR agreed
as a first step to 2,500,000 men instead of 1,500,000 for the
United States, the Soviet Union and China, and to 750,000 in-
stead of 650,000 for Britain and France. The new Soviet plan,
however, still limits all other ,countries to 200,000 men, in-
stead of the 500,000 proposed by the United States.
The USSR will again claim that it has made
the concession of accepting a Western disarmament proposal.
The lower manpower figures on which the USSR had been in-
sisting were first proposed by the West, and Gromyko charged
on 12 July that the West might again raise the levels to avoid
agreement. If the USSR carries out both the one-year 1,200,-
000-man cut announced on 14 May and the 640,000-man cut pre-
viously announced, it will then have about 2,400,000 men in its
military forces. In any case, the USSR will argue that it has
not only agreed to but is already complying with the United
States proposal. The US forces currently total about 2,800,000
men.
Gromyko repeated his 3 July proposal for
an agreement of all countries not to use atomic or hydrogen
weapons and reintroduced suggestions made in May 1955 for
the banning of such weapons, the elimination of existing stocks,
and an immediate ban on testing. In the London Disarmament
Subcommittee talks this spring, Gromyko had subordinated the
question of nuclear prohibition to immediate steps toward con-
ventional disarmament. The latest Soviet proposal also calls
for "effective control" in both fields.
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2. IRAQI CHIEF OF STAFF MAKES "LAST-HOUR"
APPEAL FOR MORE US ARMS
The American army attach�n
Baghdad has reported a conversa-
tion in which Iraq's Chief of Staff
Rafiq made a "last-hour" appeal
for increased US military aid.
Rafiq said that "half-measures" will
no longer ensure Iraqi allegiance to
the West.
The chief of staff said he was unable
to explain the "intricacies" of US military aid satisfac-
torily to Iraqi politicians and junior officers, who com-
pare the American arms program with the large, highly
publicized deliveries of Soviet arms to Egypt and Syria.
Rafiq said that "under the surface" elements in Iraq are
"seething" and that only immediate delivery of arms and
material will realign this attitude and prove that Iraqi
leaders were correct in siding with the West.
The attach�eports that his contacts
with civilians and junior officers confirm Rafiq's apprehen-
sions, and he -believes Rafiq is not merely making another
attempt to apply pressure.
Comment By joining the Baghdad pact, Iraq hoped to
obtain strong economic and military sup-
port which might enable it to, replace Egypt as the leader of the
Arab world. Disillusionment has been growing for some time
as a result of the failure of other Arab states to join the pact.
The recent de-emphasis of the military aspects of the pact has
probably increased dissatisfaction within the Iraqi army, which
is regarded as the symbol of national prestige.
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3. NEGOTIATIONS FOR AN ICELANDIC GOVERNMENT
av
Several days of cabinet negotiations be-
tween the Progressives and the Commu-
nist-dominated Labor Alliance on the
formation of a new Icelandic government
ral agreement on economic policy, but
there are differences over foreign policy and the assignment
of cabinet posts, according to a Social Democratic source.
The Progressives, with their Social
Democratic allies, reportedly decided to enter into negotia-
tions with the Communists primarily because of Progressive
fears that the Conservatives might join the Communists in
amending the constitution so as to deprive the Progressives
of their present over-representation in parliament.
Comment The Progressive Party authorized its
chairman, Hermann Jonasson, to attempt
to form a cabinet with the Social Democrats and the Labor
Alliance on the basis of equal representation--two posts for
each party in the cabinet.
The Communists are eager to participate
in a new government in order to gain a decisive influence in
the nation's economy. They might for this purpose accept Ice-
land's continued formal membership in NATO, particularly if
some interparty understanding is reached on a policy calling
for ultimate withdrawal of American troops.
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4. JAPANESE DIPLOMATS FORESEE NO SOVIET
CONCESSIONS IN RENEWED PEACE TALKS
The Japanese embassy in London has
expressed the opinion that the USSR
has a "very strong" bargaining posi-
tion in renewed peace negotiations with
Japan, and it apparently feels the Soviet Union is unlikely
to make any territorial concession beyond its previous of-
fer to return Shikotan and the Habomai Islands. The em-
bassy speculated that after some initial maneuvering the
conferees will reach quick agreement, along the lines of
the Adenauer formula, to exchange diplomatic missions.
The embassy felt the lack of progress
during the previous talks would prejudice the success of a
new effort in London. It noted various indications that the
talks would be held in Moscow, among them chief Soviet
representative Malik's plan to return to the Soviet capital
"on holiday" and Premier Bulganin's strong recommenda-
tion for Moscow during the recent fishery negotiations.
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5. BRITISH MAKE PUBLIC STATEMENT ON CYPRUS
Prime Minister Eden's statement on
12 July that Lord Radcliffe is to draft
a constitution for self-government on
Cyprus is the remnant of a broader pro-
posal involving eventual self-determina-
tion, which Britain last week abandoned
because of Turkey's vehement opposition.
There is nothing in the present British
statement that will win either Greek or Turkish support. The
basic problem of self-determination for Cyprus--which Athens
demands and Ankara rejects--remains unsolved.
The move to proceed with development of
constitutional self-government in the colony, which appears
to have no chance of gaining Cypriot co-operation, is dictated
largely by the Eden government's need to meet continuing pub-
lic criticism.
As recently as 6 July, Foreign Office per-
manent under secretary Kirkpatrick indicated his view that
both the Greek and the Turkish attitudes had stiffened, and
implied that the cabinet had no further ideas for British action
toward a solution. He said he personally thought the best pros-
pects might lie in some form of partition of the island between
Greece and Turkey.
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6. NEW RUMANIAN OVERTURE TO FRANCE
Former Rumanian Liberal Party leader
Gheorghe Tatarescuiwho was rehabili-
tated in late 1955, informed the French
minister in Bucharest that "the time has
come for France to assume her former position of influence
in Rumania and act in Rumania as well as in Czechoslovakia
and Poland as the link between East and West," according to
the American legation in Bucharest. Tatarescu suggested a
Franco-Rumanian cultural agreement as the first step.
When pressed by the French minister, the
former minority party figure agreed that Rumania had been
chosen by the USSR for the mission of attracting France to
the East.
Comment Tatarescu presumably is being used to
press regime policies. The Rumanian
overture is in line with several recent Satellite moves which
are part of a general Soviet bloc effort to weaken French sup-
port of Western policies. The Czech and Polish premiers, for
example, have recently asked French officials for invitations to
make state visits to Paris; the French have already invited Pre-
mier Cyrankiewicz.
The French generally are eager to take steps
to broaden Satellite contacts with the West, but remain suspi-
cious of Soviet bloc motives and can be expected to move with
caution.
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 12 July)
Nothing of significance to report.
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