CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/10/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179156
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: October 21, 1956

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21 October 1956 3.3(h)(2)
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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
Copy No.
..20�^
DOCUMEST
No CHANGE IVA
DEGLASSIVIED
CLASS COlktICAO TO. IS
NEWT ViEVON DATE: ---
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I LI I 01.:44,-,11.1.:. I
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CONTENTS
1. SITUATION IN POLAND
(page 3).
2. PRAVDA ATTACKS POLISH PRESS AS ANTI-SOVIET
AND ANTI-SOCIALIST (page 6).
."3. JAPANESE AT UN NOT CERTAIN OF UNCONDITIONAL
SOVIET SUPPORT FOR JAPAN'S ENTRY (page 7).
ARMED FORCES SEIZE GOVERNMENT IN HONDURAS
(page 8).
,.5. SUDAN AND ETHIOPIA NEGOTIATING NONAGGRESSION
pACT (page 9).
16. AUSTRIANS SEEN LIKELY TO ATTEND DANUBE
COMMISSION MEETING IN BUDAPEST
(page 10).
21 Oct 56
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 11)
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1. SITUATION IN POLAND
In the face of strong Russian opposition,
the Polish Communist regime under the
leadership of rehabilitated Wladyslaw
Gomulka has decided to continue its
liberalization campaign and reduce the
influence of the Soviet Union in the gov-
ernment, the party, and the country as
a whole. Rumors of troop movements
and workers' strikes are keeping tension
high, with the next showdown scheduled
to take place on 23 October when Polish
politburo representatives are to go to
Moscow to continue the discussions touched
off by the dramatic arrival in Warsaw on 19 October of Kremlin
leaders led by Khrushchev.
The central committee of the Polish
United Workers', (Communist) Party on 21 October chose
Gomulka first secretary and gave the liberal faction of the
party increased representation in the new politburo. Soviet
marshal Rokossovski, Polish minister of defense, was not
re-elected to the politburo. The election followed a speech
on 20 October by Gomulka, in which he declared that Soviet-
Polish relations must be based on the principle of independence
of individual countries and respect for the sovereignty of
every nation. He told the Polish party "we will defend our-
selves with all our forces from being pushed" from the Polish
road to socialism.
Against the background of Gomulka's
declaration of a Yugoslav type of independence, the removal
of Rokossovski�and:peverai other pro-Soviet individuals
from the top leadership of the party is a fundamental victory
for the Poles. It eliminates a principal means of Soviet
control of the Polish regime. Rokossovski's ouster will
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probably be followed by further purges of pro-Soviet ele-
ments within the government, party and military services.
While Gomulka claimed that Poland
wants to co-operate with the Soviet Union, he made it clear
the Poles intend to follow their own inclinations in developing
their own brand of socialism. Gomulka blamed the party
leadership for the shortcomings and difficulties that have
plagued the regime, asserting that the Poznan workers would
not have gone on strike if they had been told the truth. ".The
clumsy attempt to present the painful Poznan tragedy as the
works of political agents and provocateurs," he said, was
"politically-naive He called for changes in "our system of
people's government, in the system of the organization of
�our industry, and in the methods of work of the state and
party apparatus" to remove "the bad things" that have been
hampering the development of political and economic life in
Poland. He also called for election laws to "enable people
to elect and not merely to vote?'
There is no reliable information to
indicate what the Soviet and Polish conferees may have de-
cided during the brief visit in Warsaw of top Soviet leaders
on 19 October. Reports that a Polish delegation will go to
Moscow on 23 October suggest that the talks in Warsaw were
inconclusive. There is no indication the Poles have yielded
to Soviet pressure in any respect.
Substantial elements of four of the 22
Soviet military divisions in East Germany began moving to
the Polish frontier on 18 October, and appeared to be massed
at the border by 20 October. However, reports that Soviet
troop movements have taken place within Poland, or that So-
viet units have crossed the border and clashed with Polish
forces, remain unconfirmed. The USSR has two divisions
stationed in Poland. On 21 October the American embassy
in Warsaw reported no unusual security precautions there.
While these events appear to portend a
new era for Poland, there was little in Gomulka's speech to
suggest that he expects to bring about a quick improvement
of economic conditions. In commenting on "the impatience
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of the working class," he noted that "not even the greatest
wizard could pour water out of an empty jug," a reference
to the antiquated and cumbersome economy which, he said,
could be corrected only through an improvement in the
management of industry and an increase of labor productivity.
He warned, "We cannot now afford any more serious wage
increases," but called for improvements in working condi-
tions in the mines and industry.
Gomulka implied that too much emphasis
had in the past been placed on heavy industrial investment at
the expense of means of improving living conditions. He
advocated the halting of the formation of new collectives,
and the dissolution of weak ones, as well as abolition of com-
pulsory deliveries, tax aids to craftsmen, and some form_
of a market economy to fix prices and guide production.
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2. PRAVDA ATTACKS POLISH PRESS AS ANTI-SOVIET
AND ANTI-SOCIALIST
A Pravda article on 20 October launched
a slashing attack on the Polish press
which, while specifically directed at
individual Polish journalists, was evi-
dently intended to express openly Mos-
cow's dissatisfaction with the Polish government for carrying
its campaign of liberalization and national independence
too far.
Pravda charged that the Polish press,
particularly in the last few days, had sought to "under-
mine socialism" and "shake the foundations of the people's
democratic system," was publicly renouncing Lenin and
Marx, and openly calling for the restoration of capitalism.
The article said that "in this hoarse chorus of slanders,
even anti-Soviet pronouncements are to be heard," a develop-
ment which "of course pains the Soviet people." Although
Pravda, did not quote from the many recent Polish press
statements demanding a policy independent of the USSR,
it is probably these which have most disturbed Moscow.
The Polish press and radio retorted
immediately with bitter attacks on the Pravda article. One
broadcast said, "We condemn with firm determination this
shocking act of the Pravda Warsaw correspondent as, an
attempt to violate the Leninist norm of co-existence between
fraternal parties...."
In his Warsaw speech on 21 July, Bul-
ganin had sought to slow the liberalization in Poland by
criticizing the Polish press in terms that were much milder
and vaguer, pointing out that the press must be a militant
propagandist in the struggle for socialism and must not be
misled by capitalist propaganda. Even this mild rebuke
was resented throughout Poland, and did not deter the Polish
press from increasing its demands for liberalization mea-
sures.
21 Oct 56
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3. JAPANESE AT UN NOT CERTAIN OF UNCONDITIONAL
SOVIET SUPPORT FOR JAPAN'S ENTRY
Japanese observers at the UN see no
assurances in the Japanese-Soviet agree-
ment that the Soviets will unconditionally
support Japan's entry, according to the
American delegation at the United Na-
tions, They said Bulganin had announced, on behalf of the
Soviet delegation, that the USSR would "support Japanese
membership as soon as diplomatic relations were estab-
lished."
The Japanese observers feel a Security
Council meeting is advisable before Japan's Diet meets to
ratify the agreement, to force from the USSR a statement
of unconditional support upon resumption of diplomatic
relations.
Comment The Japanese have tentatively slated a
special Diet session for 15 November
for ratification of the Moscow agreement.
The Japanese who negotiated in Moscow
are convinced that Soviet support is unconditional and that
even if an initial Soviet "package" of Japan and some other
country fails because of a Western veto, the USSR would
not veto a subsequent proposal on Japan alone.
21 Oct 56
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4. ARMED FORCES SEIZE GOVERNMENT IN HONDURAS
The armed forces are reported in full
ontrol of the Honduran capital after a
loodless coup which began with demon-
trations by the air force early on 21
October. The local radio announced that a military junta
"which owes nothing to any political party," had assumed
control of the government and would respect private prop-
erty and international obligations.
General Abraham Williams, head of the
small Reformist Party, is reported under house arrest. The
radio announced that the military junta was composed of Gen-
eral Roque Rodriguez, air force chief ,Colonel Hector
Caraccioli, and Roberto Galvez, son of former president
Juan Manuel Galvez.
Comment The unpopular de facto government of
ailing chief of state Lozano has been
showing signs of disintegration since last August, and miii
tary leaders have considered assuming control. They prob-
ably felt that if they did not act quickly the government would
fall into the hands of the ambitious Abraham Williams, who
is hated by many officers and important political factions.
The chief danger of violence resulting
from this coup would come from Williams' supporters, whose
strength in the army is unknown, but probably not great.
The new government will probably make some effort in the
near future to establish a basis for constitutional government.
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5. SUDAN AND ETHIOPIA NEGOTIATING NONAGGRESSION PACT
Negotiations are taking place between the
Sudan and Ethiopia for the establishment
of a nonaggression pact which is in ef-
fect directed against Egypt, Sudanese
prime minister Khalil told an American embassy official on
19 October. A mutual defense pact at a later date is also
under consideration. The Ethiopian ambassador to the Sudan
says the negotiations for the nonaggression pact have been
completed, and an agreed draft has been initialled for signa-
ture after the Sudanese elections next spring.
Khalil said that while the Sudan must now
co-operate with the Arab states because of problems out-
standing with Egypt, the Sudan must ultimately face toward
Africa rather than toward the Arabs.
Comment The growing co-operation between the
Sudanese and Ethiopian leaders reflects
their fear of Egypt's ultimate designs on their countries.
� Press reports from Cairo alleging efforts by Khalil to link
Egypt, the Sudan and Ethiopia in a military, economic and
political bloc appear Egyptian-inspired.
Prime Minister Khalil, however, is
unlikely to take a pro-Egyptian stand. The Umma Party,
which controls the present Sudan government, has a history
of good relations with Ethiopia.
21 Oct 56
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6. AUSTRIANS SEEN LIKELY TO ATTEND DANUBE
COMMISSION MEETING IN BUDAPEST
The Austrian government will send an
observer to the December meeting in
Budapest of the Communist-dominated
Danube Commission unless the Western
t "very convincing arguments" against it,
in the opinion of American ambassador Thompson. A gov-
ernment spokesman recently told Thbmpson the Austrian
Foreign Ministry is under strong pressure from other minis-
tries to participate in the "technical discussions." The Aus-
trians argue that participation would not increase pressure
on Austria to adhere to the Soviet-inspired 1948 Danube
Convention, but might lead to modification of the convention.
Comment The French government is now taking
the initiative in the long-standing Western
efforts to discourage Austria from participating on the
grounds that the 1921 convention is still in effect. French
success is doubtful, however, in view of increased Austrian
interest in Danube basin affairs. Foreign Minister Figl
recently denied he has been under pressure from the USSR
or Yugoslavia on the matter. He will probably be influenced
by the action of West Germany, which also wants to send
observers.
21 Oct 56
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Ur�arttft, I Nome
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 21 October)
Three Israeli soldiers were killed and
21 wounded on 21 October when two Israeli military vehicles
hit Egyptian mines planted within Israeli territory in the Nitzana
area south of the Gaza strip, according to an Israeli military
spokesman. Retaliation by Israel for the incident is likely.
The timing and location of such action, presumably will be
chosen to achieve surprise, the lack of which contributed to
considerable casualties aniOtia the Israeli g in their last"twO
ra:idsL against Jordan.
Recent gradual mobilization of military
reserves in Israel brought total active strength up to about
100,000 by 19 October, according to the American army attach�
in Tel Aviv. This force includes about 25,000 personnel of the
paramilitary Nahal organization, most of whom are deployed
to defend border settlements. The area south of Beersheba,
in the Southern Command, is once again reported to contain a
"substantial number of units, oarticularlv armor!"
A concerted Egyptian propaganda effort
to influence the parliamentary elections held in Jordan on 21
October was indicated
Cairo radio's
"Voice of the Arabs" and the press "would continue to devote spe-
cial attention to the Jordan question...until after the elections."
Treatment was to stress the " eo le's struggle and the conspir-
acies of the imperialists! they would also discuss
at length the declaration made y President Nasr, which promised
Egyptian military support for Jordan. and would refer to Egyptian
and Syrian military aid.
Reflecting this effort, the semiofficial
Egyptian Middle East News Agency announced on 20 October
that the Egyptian government had decided to provide Jordan
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with "jet planes and heavy arms," and that Major General
Amer, commander in chief of Arab joint forces, would visit
Jordan this week. (Press)
General Amer is scheduled to arrive in
Jordan
the visit would be the occasion for signing
a military agreement between Egypt and Jordan, concerning
�either delivery of arms from Egypt or establishment of closer
Military co-operation.
a new consignment of arms furnished
by Egypt to the Jordan National Guard. The shipment will con-
sist of rifles, machine guns, and 2-inch and 4-inch mortars
�with ammunition, and hand grenades, mines, barbed wire and
sand bags. The shipment is to be sent by sea about 23 October
via the Syrian port of Latakia.
Jordan's King Hussain requested
that Saudi Arabian troops be prepared to aid Jordan.
Hussain is reported to have expressed
concern that Israel intended to occupy West Jordan, and ad-
vised that he might require urgent assistance from the Saudi
army.
21 Oct 56
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