CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/03/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Keywords: 2018 Sanitization
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161856
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: March 20, 1956

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20 March 1956
DOCUMENT NO.
651
NO CHANGE IN CLASS
C1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: >4)10
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: lit W.I. k REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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aft, Afts,
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CONTENTS
1. WEST GER REARMAMENT SEEN STRETCHING OUT
TO POSSIBLY FIVE YEARS (page 3).
2. PEIPING'S MINISTER OF FOREIGN TRADE IN CAIRO
(page 4).
3. CHOU EN-LA! REPORTED TO HAVE ACCEPTED INVITA-
TION TO VISIT CAMBODIA (page 5)0
4. EAST BERLIN CLAIMS POLICE AND JUDICIAL AUTHORITY �
IN ALL OF BERLIN (page 6).
5. BOLIVIA CLOSES BORDER WITH ARGENTINA
(page 7).
6. USSR REPORTED TO HAVE INDEFINITELY POSTPONED
MOSCOW DISARMAMENT MEETING (page 8).
* * * *
20 Mar 56
THE A
-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 9)
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1. WEST GERMAN REARMAMENT SEEN STRETCHING
OUT TO POSSIBLY FIVE YEARS
The American embassy in Bonn estimates
that the West German military build-up
may now be extended to five years instead
of the originally planned three. Influen-
tial elements in West Germany oppose the sacrifices demanded
by a rapid build-up and doubt the wisdom of conventional mil-
itary forces in an atomic age. The embassy believes that the
first conscripts will not be called until' well after the 1957
elections, long after the date presently scheduled.
Chancellor Adenauer has insisted to Am-
bassador Conant that to win the next elections his government
must spend more money on social benefits than on defense.
Comment The economic difficulties referred to by
Adenauer are probably a less important
factor in retarding the army build-up than recent changes
in the international scene and various domestic political de-
velopments. The Defense Ministry has been deliberate
in dealing with organizational problems, and Finance Minis-
ter Schaeffer has taken a very strong stand against appro-
priating any funds over the earlier estimate of 9 billion marks
annually.
20 Mar 56
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2. PEIPING'S MINISTER OF FOREIGN TRADE IN CAIRO
Comment on:
A Chinese Communist trade delega-
tion to Egypt, headed by Peiping's
minister of foreign trade, was re-
ceived by Premier Nasr on 17 March.
The delegation is scheduled to remain in Egypt for three
weeks to discuss Sib-Egyptian trade. The dispatch of
the "cabinet-level" mission supports Communist China's
effort to gain diplomatic recognition from Egypt,
The Chinese Communists gained their
first foothold in the Middle East in August 1955, when they
signed a three-year trade agreement with Egypt providing
for the exchange of permanent commercial representatives.
The recent visit to Cairo of a 71-man Chinese "cultural"
mission, arrangements to open Communist China's com-
modity exhibition there in April, and Peiping's recent en-
ergetic propaganda support of Egypt's position in the Arab-
Israeli dispute are further indications of the extent of the
Chinese effort.
This Chinese Communist delegation will
probably accept the recent invitation from the Sudan's for-
, eign minister to visit Khartoum to discuss economic relations.
(Prepared jointly with ORR)
20 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
Page 4
CONFIi 1TIAL
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3. CHOU EN-LAI REPORTED TO HAVE ACCEPTED
INVITATION TO VISIT CAMBODIA
Chou En-lai is reported to have ac-
cepted Prince Sihanouk's invitation to
visit Cambodia and may go there in
May. Since Sihanouk's return from
his recent trip to Peiping, he has in-
dicated an awareness of the Commu-
nist threat to Cambodian independence.
He believes, however, that the best
defense lies in being a "good friend"
of Chou.
A Cambodian official said the invitation
was extended because of Sihanouk's personal affection for
Chou, and that Sihanouk hoped to "hook" the Chinese pre-
mier on a statement promising noninterference in Cambo-
dian affairs. On Sihanouk's recent visit to Peiping, he and
Chou affirmed their adherence to the "five principles" of
peaceful coexistence.
Chou's visit will enhance pro-Peiping
sentiment among Cambodia's Chinese population and tend to
solidify neutralist sentiment in Cambodia. It will probably
also serve to facilitate economic relations between the two
countries. In this connection, Sihanouk has stated that a
Chinese offer of economic aid has been accepted "in prin-
ciple" and that details would be negotiated in Peiping
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4. EAST BERLIN CLAIMS POLICE AND JUDICIAL AUTHORITY
IN ALL OF BERLIN
East Berlin has claimed police and judi-
cial authority over all Berlin in the case
of crimes committed in East or West Ber-
lin, according to an East Berlin radio
broadcast on 15 March. The radio re-
ported that this claim was made by the prosecutor at the
trial of a West Berlin resident accused of arson in West Ber-
lin who was subsequently arrested, tried, and convicted in
East Berlin. The East Berlin prosecutor stated that "the
people's police and the democratic judiciary" consider them-
selves responsible for maintaining law and order throughout
the entire city.
Comment This is the first time the East Berlin
government has asserted the right to try
persons accused of committing crimes in West Berlin. Here-
tofore, the police of the two parts of the city have exchanged
criminals, who were then tried in the jurisdiction where the
alleged crime was committed.
This claim of jurisdiction is a further
assertion of East Germany's claim of sovereignty over all
of Berlin. This claim may also have been made in justifica-
tion of possible forays into West Berlin for the purpose of
"arresting" West Berliners. (CONFIDENTIAL)
20 Mar 56
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5. BOLIVIA CLOSES BORDER WITH ARGENTINA
The Bolivian government is "unusually"
apprehensive that Argentina may be
arming Bolivian exiles for an invasion
of Bolivia, to be co-ordinated with up-
risings in La Paz and other major cities. A general alert
of civilian and military personnel has been ordered; the
Bolivian-Argentine border has been closed; and mail serv-
ice between the two countries has been suspended,
President Paz asserts that the Commu-
nist Party of Bolivia has formed an alliance with the ex-
treme rightist Bolivian Socialist Falange to foment disor-
ders and support the conspiracy.
Comment The Bolivian exiles in Argentina, re-
portedly led by ex-president Enrique
Hertzog, would appear to have little chance of success if
they attempted such an invasion.
The Bolivian government's concern
could be a pretext to postpone elections and delay the re-
lease of political prisoners whose freedom has been prom-
ised before elections are held, While President Paz and
other high government officials have insisted that presiden-
tial and congressional elections will be held, presumably
in May or June, no date has been set.
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6. USSR REPORTED TO HAVE INDEFINITELY POSTPONED
MOSCOW DISARMAMENT MEETING
The unofficial meeting on disarmament
that was reportedly scheduled to begin
in Moscow on 29 March has been indefi-
nitely postponed, according to press re-
ports from Japan and Britain.
The Japanese news agency Kyodo reported
that a Japanese professor who had agreed to attend the meet-
ing had been notified by cable from Moscow that the meeting
had been suspended. British members of parliament who
had accepted invitations received similar notification,
Comment
the USSR had apparently
failed to attract any important leaders of non-Communist
parties. The Soviet leaders may have decided that a meet-
ing in Moscow without the participation of such responsible
leaders would merely duplicate the World Peace Council con-
ference on disarmament to be held in Stockholm from 5 to
9 April.
20 Mar 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 19 March)
A clash between Israeli and Jordan
Arab Legion patrols was reported by Israel on 19 March.
Egypt claims Israeli forces have again fired on an Egyp-
tian position in the Gaza strip. (Press)
The Egyptian army command has fixed
1 July 1956 as the date when Egypt will reach "maximum"
preparedness for war,
After this date
any provocation or border incident by Israel will lead to
retaliation in force. The Israeli defense force reportedly
has estimated Egypt would attack Israel about August 1956.
Both the reported Egyptian and Israeli estimates apparently
assume that by 1 July, the Egyptian army would be pre-
pared only to the minimum extent required to launch an of-
fensive.
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