CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/05/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179154
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: May 15, 1956

Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
7-0-17-SECRET
15 May 1956
Copy No,, 103
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS
I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S CIAO
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUT H 7
o A T
REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Top SECRET
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
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CONTENTS
1. USSR'S ANNOUNCED REDUCTION IN ARMED FORCES
izsage 3).
2. NASR CONFIRMS FORTHCOMING SHAKE-UP IN EGYP-
TIAN GOVERNMENT (page 5).
3. SOVIET AND FRENCH OFFICIALS GIVE PREVIEW OF
MOSCOW TALKS (page 0).
4. SINGAPORE SELF-GOVERNMENT TALKS APPROACHING
CRITICAL STAGE (page 7).
5. THAILAND RESTIVE ON TRADE CONTROLS ISSUE
(page 8).
15 May 56
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 9)
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1. USSR'S ANNOUNCED REDUCTION IN ARMED FORCES
Comment on:
The USSR b announced intention to
reduce its armed forces by 1,200,000
before May 1957 reflects its current
assessment of the nuclear stalemate
and may have been motivated jointly by political and eco-
nomic considerations.
The Soviet announcement will support
and intensify a major Soviet propaganda campaign to in-
duce similar moves on the part of the Western nations. It
may have been timed to have an impact on the visit of the
French premier and foreign minister to Moscow, since
French sentiment in favor of disarmament is particularly
strong. In a 14 May interview with a correspondent for
Le Monde, Premier Bulganin called for immediate settle-
ment of the disarmament question, adding thkt an "Utterly
destructive war is the only alternative to coexistence."
The announcement indicated that 63 army
divisions and brigades, including military units numbering
over 30,000 men stationed in East Germany, would be demo-
bilized and 375 watships put in malibalLsi.. The reductions
allegedly are in addition to the cut of 640,000 announced by
the Soviet Union last year. Taken together, the cuts represent
about 46 percent of total Soviet armed personnel, resulting
in a significant loss of immediate combat capability.
Devices to maintain maximum combat
efficiency in the face of these reductions would include a
change to civilian status of support troops without any change
in their functions as well as an expansion of military training
15 May 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
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for the success of the Sixth Five-Year Plan.
(Prepared jointly with ORR)
for civilians. The USSR would retain its capability for
rapid mobilization of its Manpower which, with the reduc-
tions, would include approximately eight million trained
reserves.
Procurement of modern complex weapons
systems would probablY, not be slo*ed by suclr a-reduction.
� Gromyko, in the London disarmament talks, implied that
the USSR would reduce only personnel, maintenance, and
operational costs, as was the apparent case in the 6409000
man reduction. Consequently, while the new cut wOuld al-
low the USSR to claim a reduction of nearly 20 percent in
the military budget, the bulk of major equipment procure-
ment would probably continue as previously planned, with
a possible doubling of procurement outlay per man for the
remaining force.
The transfers to the labor force which
might result from the reduction would decrease the un-
precedented dependence on increased labor p7oductivitv
15 May 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4
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Aik TO CRET
2. NAOR CONFIRMS FORTHCOMING SHAKE-UP IN
EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT
15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
Page ,5
TOPECRET
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tILI1
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3. SOVIET AND FRENCH OFFICIALS GIVE PREVIEW
OF MOSCOW TALKS
Comment on:
Khrushchev told a French "peace"
delegation visiting Moscow recently
that the USSR still hoped for con-
tinued French presence in Algeria,
provided a solution could be reached
along the Moroccan and Tunisian line.
He said that, for both internal and in-
ternational reasons, Moscow could
make no public declaration to that ef-
. Minister Molotov told the same group that
Soviet denunciation of the French-Soviet treaty last May
had been intended as a warning to the French people, and
that the time was not ripe for any new treaty, since the
French are "still held in the NATO vise."
Premier Bulganin, in reply to questions
of the French newspaper Le 2_o_nd_e, said on 14 May that the
USSR is ready to "increase considerably Franco-Soviet
trade on the basis of long-term agreements, provided there
is equality and mutual benefit without any discrimination."
Sov2et leaders will try to obtain
more from the French premier and foreign minister in
Moscow
and will try to insert language into the final communiqu�
bringing the Frerich closer to the Soviet position on Euro-
pean security, German reunification, disarmament, and
the Near East, particularly the Baghdad pact.
French were determined to hold the line on these issues,
and the communiqu�ould probably be confined to general-
ities.
The main Soviet objective in the talks
with the French leaders, which start on 15 May, is probably
to influence Frances long-range thinking, rather than to
reach immediate formal agreements.
15 May 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6
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SP:CW-14;4: "t
4. SINGAPORE SELF-GOVERNMENT TALKS APPROACHING
CRITICAL STAGE
Comment on:
Talks in London on seil-government ror
Singapore appear to have reached a
crucial point, with Chief Minister Marshall
still demanding complete local control of
internal security and publicly stating that
"no agreement is better than a bad agree-
ment." British officials had hoped that
last week's temporary postponement of
the issue, combined with their sympathetic
treatment of the citizenship question,
would render Marshall more flexible on
the security issue prior to a showdown
meeting expected early this week.
Marshall is alone in his delegation in
expressing objections to the British security position. He
may still yield to his colleagues and settle for less than total
control.
Representatives of the Communist-
manipulated People's Action Party who are on the Singapore
delegation have been content to let Marshall play the pre-
dominant role in the negotiations in order to be free to share
in his success or to capitalize on his failure. Should the
negotiations break down, Marshall is expected to resign. Secu-
rity forces in Singapore have been strengthened and are on the
alert for trouble.
15 May 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7
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(Atli NT Lulli. NIT7thltift
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5, THAILAND RESTIVE ON TRADE CONTROLS ISSUE
Thailand's Premier Phibun and the
minister of finance have publicly in-
dicated that Thailand's foreign trade
policies should be re-examined in the
ig united States' recent relaxation of restrictions
on trade with the USSR and the East European Satellites,
according to the American ambassador in Bangkok.
The ambassador observes that while
the relaxation of Thailand's trade controls would not con,
tribute materially to the bloc's economic build-up, it could
have adverse political and psychological repercussions in
terms of Thailand's anti-Communist orientation.
Comment Thailand bans all direct trade with
Communist China. It has also volun-
tarily banned the export of goods to the rest of the bloc.
Phibun has been subjected to strong
official and unofficial pressure to ease these restrictions.
So far, he has succeeded in resisting these pressures, but
they may cause him to seize on any change in the American
position on trade controls to justify a change in Thailand's
policy.
Last fall the Thai government re-
examined the desirability of its close political ties with
the West and at that time reaffirmed its strong anti-Com-
munist position. (Concurred in by ORR)
15 May 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
NFIPENmL
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 14 May)
Nothing of significance to report.
15 May 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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