CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/09/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03183782
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: September 25, 1956

przyz Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 /yr
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
25 September 1956
Copy No.
105
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
C.] DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:22._Atigt_
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: H 70-2
DATE .5. EVIEWER
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
A
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CONTENTS
1. SOVIET INFLUENCE SEEN SERIOUSLY THREATENED
IN HUNGARY (page 3).
2. SITUATION IN NICARAGUA (page 4).
3. SOVIET LOAN TO POLAND
page 5).
4. SOVIET OFFICIAL ASSURES EGYPT THAT WESTERN
ECONOMIC "PRESSURE"'WOULD FAIL
(page 6).
5.rOCTOB1R DATE REPORTEDLY SET FOR COUP IN CUBA
(page 7).
25 Sept 56
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 8)
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1. SOVIET INFLUENCE SEEN SERIOUSLY THREATENED
IN HUNGARY
Recent developments in Hungary are
carrying Hungary "further along a course
from which a return will be increasingly
difficult," and strong countermeasures
seem necessary if Soviet influence is to remain at the pres-
ent level, according to the American legation in Budapest.
The drive for liberalization in Hungary
reached a new height during the past few days when a number
of Hungarianwriters defied present Hungarian policies and
"reactionary" leaders in a number of strongly nationalistic
speeches at the recent meeting of the Hungarian Writers
Union. Speakers challenged the monolithic solidarity of the
Communist Party and implied that Marxism, to remain vital,
would have to compete within Hungary with other systems.
The legation believes that some Soviet
response to the current situation is increasingly to be ex-
pected, since an absence of such measures in the near future
would be an indication that the USSR has accepted a definite
gradual change in its control relations with Hungary.
Comment The USSR apparently has already warned
Hungary and the other Satellites not to
transgress the Soviet-established limits of the "independent
roads to socialism" doctrine, but this warning has evidently
had little effect in Hungary to date.
25 Sept 56
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2. SITUATION IN NICARAGUA
The death of Nicaraguan president
Somoza--whose condition as the re-
sult of the 22 September attempt on
his life is now considered grave--
would mean a period of uncertainty and
possible violence in Nicaragua. It is
unlikely that Somoza's two sons, who
now control the government, could long
r. any event, the position of the National
Guard would probably be decisive. Minister of Defense
Francisco Gaitan, who is believed to be pro-US, is popu-
lar with the Guard and seems most likely to head a group
assuming control of the government.
A state of siege was proclaimed in
Nicaragua shortly after, the wounding of the president on
22 September. Frontiers have been closed, the Nicaraguan
air force is patrolling both borders, and the National Guard
is in alert status. About 200 opposition political leaders and
Communists have reportedly been arrested.
Managua and its surroundings appeared
"unusually quiet!' There is no indication of any revolution-
ary movement timed to coincide with the attempted assassina-
tion. Reprisals against the opposition may be less severe than
originally anticipated if, as some reports now suggest, Somo-
za's attacker acted on his own. The attempt on Somoza came
as a surprise to the opposition in Managua, which has been
,workin on outside the country,
25 Sept 56
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3. SOVIET LOAN TO POLAND
Comment on:
The new credit being extended to Poland
by the USSR and the easing of the terms
of repayment of previous credits will
have only a marginal effect on the Polish
program to improve living standards. The
Soviet move is designed, according to the Polish announce-
ment, to enable the regime to fulfill its promise to raise wages
30 percent by 1960, an increase which will not be sufficient to
eliminate widespread poverty. By the loan to Poland the So-
viet leaders may hope to quiet the incessant demands by the
more liberal party elements there for more independent poli-
cies and a higher living standard, and also to strengthen the
position of the Moscow-oriented Communists in their struggle
with these elements.
The credit, granted at 2-percent interest,
consists of $25,000,000 in gold plus undisclosed amounts of
copper, rubber, and fats, and is to be repaid in equal annual
installments of Polish goods during 1957-60.
In addition, the USSR will allow Poland to
repay loans granted in 1947-49 in Polish goods rather than in
gold or convertible currency as called for originally, and will
lengthen by four to five years the payment period for $202,500,000
borrowed to finance Polish industrialization during 1950-55.
25 Sept 56
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4. SOVIET OFFICIAL ASSURES EGYPT THAT WESTERN
ECONOMIC "PRESSURE" WOULD FAIL
the West's threats to coy-
cott the Suez Canal or "not to bother with
fructaier hastern on are impractical and that if carried out,
"would not suffice for long" because of "exorbitant costs,"
Comment This is the first report of a specific
Soviet offer to help Egypt improve the
canal, although Izvestia on 23 August said that Egypt could
count on many nations for help in operating the canal.
Zaitsev has on several occasions urged
Cairo to discount possible Western military action.
25 Sept 56
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5. OCTOBER DATE FtE PORTEDLY SET FOR COUP IN CUBA
A "firm" date in October has been set
for the overthrow of Cuban president
Batista by the group headed by Colonel
Ramon Barquin, imprisoned leader of
the abortive military plot of early April
accor mg o a usually reliable source of the American
army attach�n Havana. The majority of the army and po-
lice reportedly are to participate. The source has promised
to give the attach�4 hours' warning of the coup.
Comment The Batista government has been faced
with plotting by exiles and reportedly by
civilian and military elements within the country.
Cuban minister of state Guell
had alerted his government to expect trouble during October
from subversive elements wishing to overthrow the govern-
ment. On 19 September it was reported that security meas-
ures had been tightened and that they would be further strength-
ened from 25 September to the end of October.
25 Sept 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 24 September)
According to a Tel Aviv announcement, an
Israeli woman was killed by Jordanian fire on 24 September while
worldng in a field at a settlement southwest of Jerusalem. (Press)
Jordan was reported clearing traffic from
roads in the Jerusalem area as precautions were taken against
a reprisal raid from Israel for the firing on Israeli delegates to
an archaeological convention on 23� September in which three
Israeli civilians were killed and 15 wounded. An Israeli Foreign
Ministry spokesman charged that the investigation by the UN Mixed
Armistic Commission "completely contradicts Jordan's version,
which alleges that the shots were fired by a single soldier in a fit
of madness:' He cited eyewitness reports that two machine gun-
ners and three riflemen had been seen firing on the group from
two Jordanian outposts, adding that Jordan could hardly claim
that all soldiers participating in the incident were "taken by mad-
ness." According to one report, several prominent Israeli mili-
tary leaders who are interested in archaeology, including Chief
of Staff Dayan, former chief of staff Yigal Yadin, and former com-
mander of the southern command Yigal Alon, had been expected
to attend the session but did not appear. (Press)
On the night of 23 September, UN truce super-
visor General Burns commented to the American consul in Jeru-
salem that he had only limited confidence in his efforts to dissuade
the Israelis from retaliation. He considered, however, that Israel
would need a day or more to reach a decision and mount a "suita-
ble" reprisal.
According to an official of the Iraqi embassy
in Cairo, renewed Israeli "activism" on the Jordanian border has,
for the time being, induced Egypt to avoid open objection to Iraqi
efforts to support Jordan. The Iraqis believe, however, that Egypt
is counting on the Jordanian National Guard, which Egypt has re-
cently agreed to help arm, and on Jordanian chief of staff uwar,
to limit potential Iraqi influence in Jordan
25 Sept 56
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