CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179134
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: February 4, 1955

for
p7417/1/7,4;irrecer,019t19./I17
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
4 February 1955
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
1G
NO CHANGE IN CLASS
EJ DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. _ANSI
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: ',Mot 'lb REVIEWER:.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
7/m/4
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
/111me 1410
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on Peiping b rejection of United Nations invitation (page 3).
2.
FAR EAST
3. Tokyo sees Moscow stalling on Soviet-Japanese issues (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Indian truce official irked by Polish stubbornness (page 5).
5. Viet Minh unit violates Laotian border (page 5).
6. Ithmer-Issarak campaign for approaching Cambodian elections
outlined (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iraqi prime minister reported planning to sign pact with Turkey in
next few weeks (page 7).
8. French opposition to Iraqi-Turkish pact seen encouraging Egypt
(page 7).
9. Britain opposes delay on Turkish Iraqi pact (page 8).
10. Israel reported seeking bilateral pacts with US, Britain and
France (page 9).
11. Disorders in North Africa might follow should Mendes-France fall
(page 9).
LATE ITEM
12. Burmese premier proposes Geneva-type conference to handle
Formosa problem (page 10).
* * * *
4 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
eLvrio ri.r
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
Noe Nome
GENERAL
1. Comment on Peiping rejection of United Nations invitation:
2,
Chou En-lai's letter to UN secretary
general Hammarskjold on 3 February
supports other indications that the
Peiping regime does not intend to conclude an early cease-fire,
but means instead to promote tension in the China area,
It had been expected that Peiping would
bid for more favorable terms of reference by insisting, as Chou
has in his 3 February letter, on discussing the Soviet resolution
about American "aggression" Chou has gone beyond this and
beyond any previous Chinese Communist statement, however, in
declaring that Chinese Communist representatives will not at-
tend Security Council discussions until Communist China replaces
the Chinese Nationalists in the council. The Security Council voted
10 to 1 against such action on 31 January.
Chou's letter, like other recent Chinese
Communist comment on the concept of a cease-fire, suggests that
even if Peiping's conditions for attending the UN debate were met,
Chinese Communist representatives would maintain a stubborn .
attitude and would simply demand the withdrawal of American forces
from the China area.
Both Moscow and. Peiping are well aware
that most non-Communist nations hope to avoid any hostilities which
might lead to a world war. The Communists appear to believe that
if tension is maintained many governments will intervene in an at-
tempt to modify American commitments to Nationalist Chin,
4 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Page 3
pr. Pr..e".. e.
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
_ �
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
`ggire
FAR EAST
3. Tokyo sees Moscow stalling on Soviet-Japanese ssues;
Japanese Foreign Ministry officials
are almost unanimous in believing
that Moscow's current objective toward
Japan is to restore diplomatic relations
e se ement of issues vital to Japan,
an
en s
Comment: Prime Minister Hatoyama
and his close advisers have weakened Japan's already poor bar-
gaining position with the USSR by irresponsible statements made
for domestic political purposes. The Foreign Ministry is aware
of this danger and is proposing to hold negotiations with the USSR
at the UN in New York in an effort to remove the issues from
Hatoyarna's personal supervision during the election campaign.
4 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
r. rnarpr
Approval.' for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
'inro Noe
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Indian truce official irked by Polish stubbornness:
The Indian chairman of the International
Control Commission team in Saigon re-
ports that for the first time his group has
failed to reach a unanimous agreement
on an issue referred to it. He informed the American embassy
that he had finally had enough of the Polish delegate's monotonous
reiteration of his position and had referred the matter to commis-
sion headquarters in Hanoi.
The embassy believes this action to be
important because of the Indian representative's previous insist-
ence that commission unanimity was absolutely essential.
Comment: This is a further indication
that Indian truce officials in Vietnam, as well as in Laos and
Cambodia, are developing a more realistic view of the local
situation as a result of firsthand experience in dealing with the
Communists. There is as yet no evidence, however, suggest-
ing that New Delhi is wavering in its intention of maintaining
strict neutrality.
5. Viet Minh unit violates Laotian border:
he first violation of the Laotian border
y a Viet Minh unit occurred on 31 Janu-
ry when an understrength battalion
moved into northern Laos in an appar-
ent attempt to reinforce Pathet Lao
now_surrounaing a small Laotian post east of Sam Neua.
The Laotian government, meanwhile, has ordered a battalion into
Sam Neua Province with the mission of preventing the Commu-
nists from gaining further control in an area southwest of the pro-
vincial capital.
The American army attache in Vientiane
sees a possibility for extensive hostilities in continued troop maneu-
vering
4 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
ApproveElfcrriele-a-ie: 2019/09/17 C03179134
ong-", rws
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
Nal
Comment: Talks between the royal
government and the Pathet Lao were recently suspended. Armed
clashes in the area have led the government to deploy several bat-
talions northward, in readiness for action should further incidents
occur. Although warned by the International Control Commission,
the Pathet Lao continues to maintain a bellicose attitude in its ef-
forts to win undisputed control over the northern provinces.
6. Khmer- Issarak campaign for approaching Cambodian elections
outlined:
The Khmer-Issarak political objective is
to "get anumber of people into the national assembly" by expand-
ing the party's underground organization, by setting up a "national
front of solidarity" and by spreading "party policy far and wide."
Comment:
:he Khmer-Issaraks---comparable to the Pathet
Lao in Laos--will place primary emphasis on political techniques
to further their aims during the next several months. Other infor-
mation, however, contradicts the Communists' low opinion of the
king's popular appeal.
The Democratic Party is the largest and
best organized political party in Cambodia and its connection with
left-wing elements offers the possibility of Communist exploitation.
4 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6
errID �T
Approved Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
s
'gaol
A prominent Cambodian Democrat stated on 2 February that Com-
munists were now in leading positions in the party.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iraqi prime minister reported planning to sign pact with Turkey
in next few weeks:
(�Iraqi prime minister Null will proceed
with the signature and ratification of the
pact with Turkey within the "next few
weeks," according to Minister of Educa-
tion Kenna, who is one of Nun's closest advisers. Kenna stated
that this course is the "only answer to the Egyptian nuisance."
Kenna told Ambassador Gallman that
Egypt and Iraq were holding adamantly to their respective posi-
tions, with Lebanon attempting to mediate. He expects no agree-
ment or conclusive resolution t: be announced at the formal termi-
nation of the Arab prime minibt rs' conference in Cairo, which
began its sessions nearly two w.:-:eks ago.
Comment: Kenna's timetable may be
ahead of the schedule contemplated by the cautious Nun, who has
been greatly concerned over general Arab opinion as well as over
the attitude of the Iraqi public.
8. FrcLuch o',13,tlon to Iraqi-Turkish pact seen encouraging Egypt:
4 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
g-A, N., I. .1.4 �
Comment: French support of the
Egyptian position can be expected to encourage Cairo's unyield-
ing opposition to Iraq's participation in a pact. France's attitude
Is also in line with its efforts to develop a preferred position in
Israel, which has voiced strong concern over the Iraqi-Turkish
a,greemento
9. Britain opposes delay on Turkish-Iraqi pact:
Foreign Secretary Eden has informed
British representatives in the Middle
East that Britain opposes the sugges-
tion put forward recently in Cairo that
Iraq be urged to delay six months before concluding its proposed
treaty with Turkey. London considers that any such concession
would give Egypt further opportunity to organize opposition to the
pact and would undermine the confidence of the Turks.
The Foreign Office believes that Iraqi
premier Nun i Said has shown "courageous initiative" in develop-
ing closer ties with the West and that any coolness shown by the
West to his advances would make a bad impression.
Comment: In spite of its preference for
a different approach to Middle East defense, Britain worked ac-
tively during the recent meeting of Arab prime ministers in Cairo
to mitigate Egyptian opposition to the proposed treaty.
Iraqi officials have indicated that Britain
and the United States will be asked to join the proposed pact. Thus
far, however, no formal action is known to have been taken in this
direction.
4 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 8
Approved for Releaser 2-019769/17 C03179134
� 11 ruvernarrce
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
'Niro *me
10. Israel reported seeking bilateral pacts with US, Britain and
France:
Israel still hopes to par-
ticipate in a general Middle East defense arrangem-ent, but desires
stronger security guarantees than a reaffirmation of the 1950 dec-
laration signed by the United States, Britain and France to main-
tain the status quo in the area.
Comment: Israel has been seeking secu-
rity guarantees from the Western powers to offset its growing feel-
ing of isolation,
11. Disorders in North Africa might follow should Mendes-France fall:
Overthrow of the Mendes-France govern-
ment during the current National Assembly
debate would have serious repercussions
in North Africa, in the opinion of the Amer-
ican embassy in Paris.
The embassy notes that Mendes-Franceb
approach has apparently helped create a "certain atmosphere of
confidence" among North African leaders, and it believes there is
increasing sentiment in France for the country to establish its rela-
tionship with North Africa on an "imaginative and realistic basis."
Should time be lost in a change of government, however, violence
might break out in North Africa even before the new government's
policy is known.
4 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9
'77161 'DIPT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134
� "8,
Approved for R�elease: 2019/09/17 C03179134
Nor
Comment: The French director of
security in Algiers believes Mendes-France's fall would be
"catastrophic" and bring on renewed violence in Algeria and
Tunisia. Disorders in Morocco would probably again break
out.
In view of Rene Mayer's strong attack
against Mendes-France in the current assembly debate, the
premier's chances of surviving are now less than even.
LATE ITEM
12. Burmese premier proposes Geneva-type conference to handle
Formosa problem:
Burmese premier Nu has proposed to
Chou En-lai that the Formosa problem
be dealt with at a Geneva-type conference
in New Delhi.
U Nu envisaged a conference with no fixed agenda
"in order to give the fullest opportunity to both sides to bring up any
matter which they like." Nu offered to contact Nehru in London and
ask him to explore the possibilities of holding such a conference,
provided Chou agreed.
Comment: Unconfirmed press reports
state that Nehru is already pressing for a Geneva-type meeting on
Formosa. Nehru speaking to the Commonwealth premiers on
1 February, expressed his warm approval of the Geneva confer-
ence on Indochina and reiterated India's willingness to continue in
its role as peacemaker.
Since Chou rejected the UN Security
Council's invitation to attend its current session to discuss the
Formosa situation, he may wish to take advantage of other oppor-
tunities to present Peipin0 views to the world. Communist China's
participation in the Afro-Asian conference in April will provide an
oliportunity, however, so that such a conference as Nu has suggested
may have no appeal for Chou.
4 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 10
Tnp FT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03179134