CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/05/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03192936
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: May 15, 1955

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15 May 1955
Copy No. 94
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO -14-
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Foreign policy differences loom as obstacle to Japanese conserva-
tive merger (page 3).
2.
3.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Viet Minh reported willing to be patient on unification (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
attack on Iranian religious minority
(page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. French Communists may gain some Socialist support for united
action (page 5).
5. Spanish high commissioner in Morocco reportedly to seek show-
down with Franco (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
Rumors of revolutionary activity in Costa Rica continue strong
(page 6).
* * * *
7. Comment on combined Soviet bloc military command (page 7).
* * * *
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FAR EAST
1. Foreign policy differences loom as obstacle to Japanese conservative
merger:
Fundamental foreign policy differences
between Prime Minister Hatoyama and
the opposition Liberals led by former
prime minister Yoshida and former deputy
prime minister Ogata have recently become serious enough to
hamper efforts for a merger of the conservative parties.
In Ambassador Allison's opinion,_ Hatoyama
genuinely believes that "one-side' dependence on the United States
is not in Japan's best interests and that ties must tol0 established -
with the Sino-Soviet bloc to achieve a balance. Hatoyama told the
Diet on 1.0 May that he was determined to conclude talks with the
USSR in order to further world peace and would not sacrifice these
hopes to achieve a. conservative merger.
Spokesmen for both Yoshigla and Ogata have
made it equally clear that Japan's survival depends on maintaining
the closest possible ties with the free world, and that Hatoyama's
"two-faced" policies are jeopardizing its relationship.
Comment: While Hatoyama continues to
emphasize Japan's basic tiesWillithe United States, it is clear that
his objective is to demonstrate to the Japanese people and to his own
party that they can have their cake and eat it too.
Important elements in Hatoyama's party
apparently have doubts as to the advisability of the premier's foreign
policy. Presumably, however, they will not take the initiative to
repudiate the policy until Soviet and American reactions are apparent.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Viet Minh reported willing to be patient on unification:
Two Viet Minh delegates at the Bandung
conference denied that the Viet Minh would
fight its way, south if elections were not
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held in 1956, One
of the delegates said, "Unlike the Americans, we have plenty of
patience and we can wait."
The Viet Minh officials, as well as
Wilfred Burchett, the London Daily Worker's correspondent who
was present, said the United States would make every effort to
delay the elections. Burchett added that this was one election that
could be held on the British model since the Communists would
have no trouble winning it.
Comment: Viet Minh propaganda
repeatedly insists the terrrig"TxTE-e" Geneva agreement must be
strictly adhered to and lays chief blame on the United States for
alleged attempts to sabotage the agreement.
Apart from frequent assurances that
Vietnam will indeed be unified, the Viet Minh in its propaganda has
not threatened the use of force.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
attack on Iranian religious minority:
Comment: The anti-Bahal campaign,
unless checked, could eagiErii3Feld to other religious minorities
and even be used by nationalist agitators against the government.
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the Bahati, probably
numbering a few thousand active members, has been hard put even
to maintaip its existence as an-organization.
The campaign may be an attempt by the
strong reactionary religious elements to regain political power
which they lost some 20 years ago during the reign of the previous
Shah.
WESTERN EUROPE
4. French Communists may gain some Socialist support for united
action:
The French Communist Party is increas-
ingly persistent in calls for unity of ac-
tion with the Socialists, despite vigorous
rebuffs by top Socialist leaders, and the
American embassy in Paris doubts if
Socialist Party organizations on a local level can indefinitely re-
sist these appeals.
Communist leader Duclos called on 9 May
for an early meeting of the two parties to consider a program of
opposition to the laws for government aid to church schools. This
may be a Communist attempt to prevent co-operation between the
Socialists and the Popular Republicans and at the same time to bid
for Radical Socialist support.
Comment The Communist overture to
the Socialists on 18 April for mutual support in the cantonal elec-
tions had some success on the local level.
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The Communists are emphasizing eco-
nomic and social issues to regain support lost through the partyb
concentration on Soviet foreign policy interests, especially oppo-
sition to German rearmament. The renewed pressure on the
Socialists may also be designed, however, to counteract Mendes-
France's attempt to establish the basis for a left-of-center coali-
tion majority in the next National Assembly.
5. Spanish high commissioner in Morocco reportedly to seek show-
down with Franco:
Comment: There have been several recent
reports that Franco intended to recall Garcia Valino for his anti-
French activities in Morocco as a result of pressure from the
French government.
Since he currently holds the second most
important position in the Spanish regime, Garcia-Valino may avoid
a showdown by accepting the position of chief of the high general
staff, which would put him in line to assume the regency when
Franco decides to step down. His removal from the Moroccan
post would improve French-Spanish relations. His resignation
from the army, however, might create internal difficulties for
Franco because of his prominence and popularity with the armed
forces and with the monarchists.
LATIN AMERICA
6, Rumors of revolutionary activity in Costa Rica continue strong:
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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a coup might take place in San Jose, that important revolutionary
elements had already firmly established themselves on an off-
shore island, and that other activities will develop near the
Panamanian frontier with "strong and decided support" from the
Venezuelan government.
Comment: For the past month there
have been rumors of another refolutionary movement, with
covert Venezuelan support, against the administration of Costa
Rican president Figueres.
Venezuela is known to have given some
support to the unsuccessful attempt of last January and to remain
hostile to the Figueres regime, but the current rumors have not
been substantiated.
* * * *
7. Comment on combined Soviet bloc military command:
The Warsaw agreement of 14 May pro-
vides for creation of the much-publicized
combined military command for the USSR
and its East European Satellites.
The location of the headquarters at
Moscow and the appointment of Konev as commander will provide
firm Soviet control over its day-to-day operations. Creation of
a permanent staff, composed of representatives of the general
staffs of the participating countries, will be an administrative im-
provement over the present Soviet system of bilateral control
over Satellite military activities. The text obscures, however,
an apparently unwieldy command relationship among Konev and
the Satellite defense ministers, each of whom will act as or ap-
point a deputy to Konev.
The agreement implies that not all Soviet
bloc military units will be allocated to "the complement of the
joint armed forces." A provision for the disposition of forces in
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the territory of participating countries "in accordance with the
demands of mutual defense" is probably the expected legal justi-
fication for indefinite retention of Soviet forces in East Europe.
East Germany's release from providing
armed forces to the joint command until an unspecified future
date is probably motivated by a desire not only to avoid furnish-
ing immediate justification for West German rearmament but also
to be in a position to continue strenuous objections to it. Also
the formal creation of an East German army would have dashed
German hopes for unification, and probably would have created
an unnecessary obstacle to possible direct negotiations between
East and West Germany.
The failure to announce officially the
creation of an East German army is probably intended as another
hint that Moscow is interested in entering into negotiations for a
settlement of the German problem.
The dovetailing of recent Soviet tactics
on Austria, Germany, and Yugoslavia reflects a major effort to
encourage Western speculation that the present Soviet leaders want
a neutral belt which would include Germany.
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