CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/12/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03020464
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: December 16, 1955

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16 December 1955
Copy No. 103
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO ea
NO CHANGE IN CLASS
; DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE k 20/
AUTH: HR 70ACP)
DATE: ..�1.4�Et_... REVIEWER:
Offit`e of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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See Nigro
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CONTENTS
1. SOVIET REVERSAL ON UN MEMBERSHIP (page 3).
2. JAPANS UN DEFEAT MAY SPUR TOKYO-MOSCOW
RE CONCILIATION (page 4).
3. NEW SOVIET BUDGET REPORTEDLY WILL MAKE NO
CHANGE IN DEFENSE EXPENDITURES (page 5).
4. SOVIET OFFER OF ECONOMIC AID TO INDONESIA
(page 6)w
5. KABUL PLAYS DOWN ARRIVAL OF KHRUSHCHEV AND
BULGANIN (page 7).
6. FRENCH INTERIOR MINISTRY FORECASTS ELECTION
RESULTS (page 8).
7. PLOTTING AND TENSION REPORTED IN PARAGUAY
(page 9).
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 10)
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1. SOVIET REVERSAL ON UN MEMBERSHIP
The Soviet proposal of 14 December
to postpone consideration of the ad-
mission of Outer Mongolia and Japan
to the United Nations until the next
session of the General Assembly has placed the USSR in
a position to claim credit for making the concession which
broke the long membership deadlock and, at the same time,
to continue to manipulate Outer Mongolia's candidacy as a
lever in efforts to force the expulsion of the Chinese Nation-
alists and the seating of the Chinese Communists.
Soviet delegate Sobolev's statement that
the USSR assumes that "measures will be taken by united
action" before the next General Assembly session to permit
the entry of Outer Mongolia and Japan is a clear indication
that the USSR will make Japan's admission contingent upon
the simultaneous entry of Outer Mongolia, and that it will
encourage such countries as India to lead a movement to un-
seat the Chinese Nationalists as the only way to secure the
admission of Outer Mongolia and Japan.
Moscow probably believes that its offer
to vote for Japan on condition that Outer Mongolia also be
admitted will eventually confront the United States with a
choice between agreeing to seat the Chinese Communists or
continuing to support the Nationalists at the cost of Japan's
continued exclusion.
The Russians also probably calculate that
their move will weaken Japan's position in the Soviet-Japanese
talks which are to be resumed in London next month and will
strengthen Prime Minister Hatoyama's argument that Japan's
admission to the UN now depends on the early conclusion of
these talkE
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2. JAPAN'S UN DEFEAT MAY SPUR TOKYO-MOSCOW
RE CONCILIATION
Defeat of Japan's bid for UN member-
ship has led Prime Minister Hatoyama
to state publicly that Japanese admis-
sion to the UN now depends on the early
restoration of relations with the USSR
and that he is willing to visit Moscow if
necessary. The establishment of Soviet-
Japanese diplomatic relations before territorial and other
issues are settled, as proposed by the USSR during the Lon-
don talks, has been opposed by the Tokyo Foreign Ministry
on grounds that Moscow could then use these issues to ex-
tract future concessions.
Foreign Minister Shigemitsu told Am-
bassador Allison on 15 December that he may be forded to
resign for having advocated too close dependence on the
United States and for stubbornness in dealing with the Soviet
Union, which the Socialists say caused the Soviet veto. The
Socialists plan to introduce a motion of no confidence in
Shigemitsu in the Diet on 16 December; although this move
will probably fail, Hatoyama may use the opportunity to shelve
the foreign minister for having differed with his own more
conciliatory policy toward Moscow.
Meanwhile, public criticism in Japan is
being leveled principally against Taipei for torpedoing the
original 18-nation proposal, but also against the United States
and the USSR. Nationalist China's action is likely to lead to
greater official support for relations with Communist China.
16 Dec 55 Current Intelligence Bulletin
Page 4
CQWJENTIAL
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3. NEW SOVIET BUDGET REPORTEDLY WILL MAKE NO
CHANGE IN DEFENSE EXPENDITURES
that the 1956 Soviet budget will contain "no surprises," and
that defense expenditures will apparently remain at about
last year's level. They also said that the draft of the sixth
Five-Year Plan will probably be published in the first half
of January and, while it will not de-emphasize the priority
assigned to heavy industry, will provide for increased out-
put of consumer goods.
� Comment The 1956 budget is scheduled to be
presented in the Supreme Soviet ses-
sion beginning on 23 December, Directives for the sixth
Five-Year Plan are on the agenda of the 20th Party Congress
which will be convened on 14 February 1956.
Maintenance of published military expend-
itures at the 1955 rate would keep them at a postwar and peace-
time high despite the announced intention to reduce troop
strength by 640,000 men. (Prepared by ORRY,
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4.. SOVIET OFFER OF ECONOMIC AID TO INDONESIA
The fact that Soviet leaders Bulganin
and Khrushchev did not visit Indonesia on their tour of South
Asia may reflect disinterest on the part of the present Indo-
nesian government for closer relations with the USSR./
The next Indonesian cabinet, which will
probably be formed in April and is expected to include strong
elements from the leftist-inclined National Party,may be
more interested in Soviet aid offers. (Concurred
In by ORR)
16 Dec 55 Current Intelligence Bulletin
Page 6
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Ise
5. KABUL PLAYS DOWN ARRrVAL OF KHRUSHCHEV AND
BULGANIN
The reception for Khrushchev and Bulganin
in Kabul on 15 December was relatively
small and undemonstrative, as had been
predicted by the Afghan foreign minister.
Afghan press and radio silence regarding
the visit until 14 December indicates the
government's desire that there be a mini-
mum impact on the Afghan populace. It is possible, however,
that a previously reported Afghan request for a loan will be
granted by the Soviet Union.
Immediately prior to the Soviet visit, the
Afghan government made official denial of the existence of
its arms deal with Czechoslovakia, presumably to avoid an
international reaction similar to that which followed publica-
tion of the Egyptian-Soviet bloc agreement. The Afghan em-
bassy in Cairo has issued a communique stating that Afghani-
stan intends to remain outside both Eastern and Western blocs.
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6, FRENCH INTERIOR MINISTRY FORECASTS ELECTION
RESULTS
The French Ministry of Interior esti-
mates on the basis of reports from the
departmental prefects that the Commu-
nists' share of the vote in the 2 January
elections will fall from the 25 percent they won in 1951, and
probably will not exceed the 2L7 percent they received in
this year's cantonal elections. The ministry nevertheless ex-
pects the party to increase its representation in the National
Assembly from 98 to 122 deputies.
The ministry anticipates 149 seats will go
to Mendes-France's Republican Front, 272 to the present
coalition, and 11 to the extreme right. Algeria and the over-
seas territories are excluded from this estimate.
Comment While most observers agree that the Com-
munists' popular vote will be slightly be-
low their 1951 figure, some estimate they will nevertheless
win up to 140 seats in the new 626-member assembly. Mendes-
France admits privately that his Republican Front can win only
about 150 seats. While a surprisingly large number of new
voters have registered in the past two weeks and this could re-
sult in a considerable change in the assembly line-up, there
is little likelihood of a stable majority in the next assembly.
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7. PLOTTING AND TENSION REPORTED IN PARAGUAY
The stability of Paraguayan president
Stroessner's regime is threatened with
new plotting by important political and
military figures and by the conflict
among various factions of the ruling
Colorado Party.
There are reports that an antigovern-
ment plot was quashed on 3 December and that the regime
has since arrested the alleged leader of the plot, Epifanio
Mendez Fleitas. Mendez is an important Colorado politi-
cian and president of the Paraguayan central bank.
all members of the cabinet
submitted resignations on 14 December to give Stroessner
a free hand.
Pressure for the removal of Mendez
and other pro-Peron officials is reportedly being exerted
also by the Argentine government as a prerequisite for the
Argentine co-operation Paraguay urgently needs--trade be-
tween the two countries having virtually ceased since the
anti-Peron revolt in September. Buenos Aires is said to
have demanded specifically the removal of Defense Minister
Morinigo, who is reported to be the focal point of unrest in
the Paraguayan army, and Major Virgilio Camila, Mendez'
friend and commander of the strategic First Cavalry Divi-
sion.
Stroessner still appeared in control, but the
situation was "fluid" and further important government changes
were likely.
16 Dec 55 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
ET
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
SInformation aof 1700, 15 December)
Israel has moved reinforcements into the
area near the scene of the 11-12 December raid against Syria
" Qyrian retaliation
"
The American military attach�n Tel
Aviv believes that violent rains and flood conditions in Israel
probably preclude military action for a few days.
As of 13 December Syrian chief of staff
Shuqayr appeared ill-informed about the Israeli raid and unde-
cided as to what to do. He told the American military attach�
in Damascus he was considering calling up reserves, but had
not consulted President Quwatli on this.
Prime Minister Nasr's public statement
that Egypt and Syria will attack Israel on two fronts if the
Israelis commit "further aggression" indicates that Egypt plans
no immediate military action to support Syria. Egyptian for-
eign minister Fawzi told Ambassador Byroade on 13 December
that Egypt had urged Syria to take the matter to the UN Security
Council, but claimed this course was only a "lesser evil" since
he feared the USSR might use a UN debate to "work mischief."
16 Dec 55
Nasr's announcement will,
however, make it more diffi-
cult for him to avoid taking
military action should another
major Israeli raid occur. UN
truce chief General Burns
told the American consul
general in Jerusalem on 13
December that he was wor-
ried over the possibility of
such a raid as a result of
his talk with Israeli prime
minister Ben-Gurion two
days earlier. Burns thought
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Sfeiter
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ire
Ben-Gurion's attitude, especially the prime minister's inquiry as
to Egypt's intentions regarding UN cease-fire proposals, had
"sinister overtones," and Israeli charges of a "wave of Eovptian
aggressions" added to Burns' concern.
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