CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/05/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03194445
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: May 19, 1955

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TOP SECRET
Copy No. 94
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 37
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
i DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE' (.2./C) '
ALITH: HR 70-2
DA rE:.-911.161.0 _REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
19 May 1955
CY VA/9
3.3(h)(2)
- 3.5(c)
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Security treaty seen no bar to relations between Communist China
and Japan (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA.
2. Indonesian Moslem leader discusses possible election outcome
(page 3).
SOUTH ASIA
3. Afghanistan seeks support for discussion of Pushtoonistan question
(page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Nasr suspicious of American activities (page 5).
* * * *
5. Situation in Singapore remains explosive (page 5).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 7)
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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FAR EAST
1. Security treaty seen no bar to relations between Communist China
and Japan:
ri.OMM Ant.
tiotn Moscow and Peiping have stated that Japan need not abandon
its close ties with the United States to normalize relations with the
&no-Soviet bloc, but this is believed to be the first time that Japan's
security arrangements have been specifically mentioned.
Japanese government leaders have pub-
licly subscribed to the "two Chinas" concept, but have indicated it
would be premature for Japan to advance such a policy at this time.
Communist China, however, apparently has de facto recognition as
its immediate aim. It is unlikely to request formal recognition as
long as Japan maintains full relations with Taipei.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1 Indonesian Moslem leader discusses possible election outcome:
Masjumi leader Sukiman, a former pre-
mier, has informed Ambassador Cumming
that he expects Indonesia's Moslem parties
19 May 55
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to poll about 60 percent of the votes in the parliamentary elections
planned for September if he is successful in negotiating an "elec-
tion nonaggression pact" with the NU, a smaller Moslem party
that supports the present government. He believes that this would
result in a consolidation of non-Communist strength under a coali-
tion government led by the Masjumi. Sukiman said that such a
coalition might include the right wing of the National Party, which
heads the present government. Its leaders, he reported, were be-
coming alarmed at Communist gains in central Java.
The ambassador feels that Sukiman is
overly optimistic regarding the elections.
Comment: Sukiman is the leader of the
Masjumi right wing and is vice airman of the party. His pre-
vious record indicates that he favors closer military and economic
co-operation with the United States than does Natsir, the party
chairman.
SOUTH ASIA
3. Afghanistan seeks support for discussion of Pushtoonistan question:
19 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
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Comment:
Afghanistan is still unsure of Egyptian support. Kabul is
apparently trying to improve its weak position in respect to the
recent riots and demonstrations by shifting the subject to be
mediated.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Nasr suspicious of American activities:
Ambassador Byroade reports that a meet-
ing he had with Prime Minister Nasr on 16
May was devoted entirely to discussion
of complaints about alleged American ac-
tivities against the Cairo regime. In contrast to his attitude during
previous talks, the prime minister was reserved, cautious and
"extremely suspicious." Byroade believes that Nasr fears the
United States may be turning against him.
Comment: American-Egyptian relations
have cooled in recent months as a result of Cairo's belief that the
United States has "abandoned" the Nasr regime in favor of Iraq rid
the "northern tier" defense plan.
The Nasr regime, apparently frustrated
by its failure to dominate Arab affairs and feeling rebuffed by the
West, may attempt to follow a foreign policy line completely inde-
pendent of foreign influence, even Arab. Ambassador Byroade
reported on 16 May that there were indications that "a rather funda-
mental swing in Egyptian foreign policy may be in the offing."
5. Situation in Singapore remains explosive:
The American consulate general in Singa-
pore reports that tension is rising again
as a result of a government demand that
certain students be expelled from three
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Chinese schools for their part in the recent riots. The consulate
general has been informed that Communist-controlled unions are
considering a city-wide strike in support of the students. The
situation is regarded as explosive and workers are showing dis-
tinct signs of responding to agitation. Meanwhile, anti-Communist
Chinese are badly frightened and intimidated.
Comment: Several thousand Communist-
directed students have reportedly barricaded themselves in the
schools in question and have indicated an intention to resist force-
fully any effort to remove them. Under the circumstances, fresh
violence is a distinct possibility..
The British forces in Singapore and its
immediate vicinity are sufficient to overcome any Communist up-
rising.
19 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6
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WEEKLY SUMMARY
(18 May 1955)
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
1. Chinese Communist air activity during the past week
has been generally normal with the exception of three encounters
between Nationalist and Communist aircraft, none of which re-
sulted in damage to either side. One reason for the increased
number of encounters during the past week may be the Communist
patrol flights along the east coast of China,
This
Increased Chinese Communist reaction is not believed to indicate
plans for initiating hostilities. More likely purposes are to dis-
courage reconnaissance flights ovPr Minn and to maintain state
of tension in the Formosa area.
There were no significant ground combat operations
this week, although training and construction activity by the Chi-
nese Communists continued in areas opposite Nationalist-held
islands. Chinese Communist naval activity was negative. Minor
Communist naval vessels, including PT boats, continued to be
sighted in the vicinity of the Peiling Peninsula north of Matsu.
Foggy conditions along the East China coast are expected to pre-
vail until mid-June, and will considerably hamper visual observa-
tions of Chinese Communist activity in this area.
2. Completion dates for five airfields under construction
in East China have been estimated, based on the present rate of
work and development. It is now estimated that Nantai, near
Foochow, will be completed in June; Chingyang, Lungtien, and
Swatow Northeast in September; and Lungchi in October.
3. Aerial photography of late April has provided the first
evidence that construction of a rail line in Fukien Province may be
under way. The move of two railway construction divisions to Fukien
late last year was the first indication that such work was to begin.
19 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
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The photos showed a stretch of about 30 miles of what
appeared to be cleared right of way along a line toward Amoy.
The main rail link to Fukien will presumably be built
from Kueichi on the Chekiang-Kiangsi railroad to Foochow.
None of the Fukien rail construction is expected to be
completed before 1956.
4. The relief of the Nationalist guerrilla forces on the
Yinshan and Wuchiu islands by a corps reconnaissance regiment
is to be completed by about 20 May. However, the 1,200 troops
planned for Yinshan, 35 miles northeast of Matsu, and the 400
troops to be stationed on Wuchiu, 75 miles south of Matsu, would
not be sufficient to hold these islands in the face of a determined
Communist attack.
The regiment on the Paichuan (White Dog) Islands,
which has been 40 percent understrength and has had a very low
combat capabilit a o is Sc..duled to be brought to full strength
at this time.
5. The Peiping regime, while restating Chou En-lai's offer
of negotiations concerning "tension" in the Formosa area, has
avoided committing itself as to the precise form and agenda of
possible negotiations and has described the US attitude to date as
"evasive and equivocal." Peiping's propaganda has continued to
discuss the "liberation" of Formosa in military terms, although
Chou has introduced a new emphasis on the possibility of a "peace-
ful liberation."
On 13 May, Chou En-lai reported to his government on
the Bandung conference and restated the points bearing on the China
situation he had raised at Bandung: Formosa is Chinese, its
"liberation" is "China's domestic affair," US "occupation" of the
area constitutes the only "international issue," and there is no need
for a cease-fire. Chou said Peiping supports the Soviet proposal
for 10-power talks but is "willing to consider other forms" of nego-
tiations. However, Peiping can never agree to Chinese Nationalist
participation in an international conference, and negotiations can-
not affect Peiping's "right" to "liberate" Formosa. Chou added that
"the Chinese people have two possible means of liberating Formosa--
namely, by war, or by peaceful means. The Chinese people are
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willing to strive for the liberation of Formosa by peaceful means
as far as possible."
6. Peiping's propaganda attention to Formosa during the
week remained at roughly the same level as the previous week.
One broadcast stated that "one of the most important steps toward
the liberation of Formosa is the liberation of the offshore islands."
Peiping also stated that Nationalist mining of certain coastal waters
near Quemoy and Matsu "would not orevent the liberation of Formosa
and the coastal islands. .
19 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9
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COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND
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