CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02063768
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 18, 1955

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18 January 1955
Copy No. 79
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS, IR
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 12.q...Q_ REVIEWER:
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1.
Britain to emphasize Southeast Asian defense problems at Com-
monwealth conference (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Northern Fleet naval units to go to Black Sea (page 4).
3. Bohlen believes USSR forced by domestic reaction to moderate
propaganda on German rearmament (page 4).
4. Comment on second Soviet offer to share atomic knowledge (page 5).
FAR EAST
5. Hatoyama's advocacy of closer Orbit relations acclaimed by elec-
torate (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Saigon clique reported planning overthrow of Diem government
(page 6).
7. Fighting may intensify soon in northern Laos (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Comment on Arab hostility to proposed Iraqi-Turkish defense
treaty (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Replacement of Portuguese defense minister reported imminent
(page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Britain to emphasize Southeast Asian defense problems at Com-
monwealth conference:
Probably the most important matter
the British will raise at the Common-
wealth prime ministers' conference in
London beginning 31 January is the pro-
posed commitment by Australia and New Zealand to station troops
in Malaya, according to the American embassy in London.
Britain proposes that Australia and New
Zealand make Southeast Asia their "major military preoccupation,"
since Britain is unable to increase its permanent garrison in the
area. Furthermore, in the event of atomic war, Britain may be
unable to provide military support for either the Middle East or
Southeast Asia.
Any plan agreed on at the conference will
be presented to the United States "for comment," according to Brit-
ish officials,
Comment: Britain's emphasis on the
possible consequences of atomic war seems designed to persuade
the Australian government to take the politically unpopular action
of stationing troops overseas in peacetime. A plan to station two
Australian battalions in Malaya was approved at the chief-of-staff
Level over a year ago, but has still not yet been accepted by the
Australian cabinet.
British military planners have indicated
they regard regional defense associations under direct British
influence, such as that proposed for Australia, New Zealand, and
Malaya, as the only alternative to gradual abandonment of British
interests in many areas. Partly because of this conviction, the
British may also be expected to continue their efforts to secure
from the United States a specific military commitment in South-
east Asia.
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SOVIET UNION
2. Northern Fleet naval units to go to Black Sea:
Comment: This Soviet naval force
would probably include cruisers as well as destroyers. No exer-
cises involving important naval elements from any two of the four
major fleet areas have been held in the history of the Soviet navy.
The 5,000-mile voyage between Murmansk and Sevastopol, the re-
spective fleet headquarters, would probably take about two weeks.
In addition to providing much-needed
training, such a cruise might be intended as a show of force to
discourage implementation of the Paris accords. Beginning in
1953 the USSR has shown increasing interest in the use of naval
power as an effective instrument of foreign policy in time of peace.
3. Bohlen believes USSR forced by domestic reaction to moderate
propaganda on German rearmament:
Ambassador Bohlen notes that the Soviet
propaganda campaign to mobilize domestic
public opinion against German rearmament,
which reached a peak in mid-December with
the publication in Pravda and Izvestia of letters from war veterans,
fell off abruptly even before the French assembly debate. He be-
lieves that a possible interpretation might be the regime's concern
about growing uneasiness, rumors of war, and signs of food hoard-
ing during the height of the campaign. He sees this as an indication
of the regime's sensitivity to domestic opinion.
Comment: There have been some signs
that Satellite governments are trying to curb war scares that have
resulted from the vigorous campaign against German rearmament.
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While Moscow has moderated its campaign to stir domestic opin-
ion, its foreign propaganda has dipped only slightly since the
French assembly debate and has now been reinforced by the 15
January statement on Germany. Soviet propaganda for domestic
consumption usually avoids repeated use of war-scare themes
and always tempers them with reassurances that the USSR is
seeking peace from a position of strength.
4. Comment on second Soviet offer to share atomic knowledge:
The Soviet offer to assist Communist
China, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Rumania
and East Germany in carrying out re-
search in nuclear physics and "the use of atomic energy for peace-
ful purposes" is obviously an effort to offset the Western "atoms-
for-peace" plan endorsed by the UN.
The USSR's present move may also be
partially motivated by the belief that wider Satellite participation
in nuclear developments is desirable to achieve more effective
co-operation. Except for token shipments of radioactive isotopes2
these Satellites have received virtually nothing in return for their
uranium ore.
The statement that the USSR is consider-
ing expanding this offer to other states may indicate that it hopes
to demonstrate its ability to surpass the West in applying nuclear
energy to peaceful pursuits. In order to do this, Moscow may
expand its plan outside the Orbit by offering fissionable materials
and technical assistance to the underdeveloped Asian countries.
FAR EAST
5. Hatoyama's advocacy of closer Orbit relations acclaimed by
electorate:
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Prime Minister Hatoyama's advocacy
of closer relations with the Orbit is
increasing his personal popularity and
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the Democratic Party's chances in the
election campaign now under way in
Japan. The American embassy in
Tokyo reports that Hatoyama has at-
rac crow's such as ordinarily turn out only for the emperor,
and while the press and intellectual circles are beginning to ex-
press some doubts over Hatoyarna's frank and frequently off-the-
cuff expressions of friendship for the Communist nations, the
populace appears to be enchanted.
Despite the assurances of Foreign
Minister Shigemitsu that Japan is not now contemplating any
moves toward the Orbit, the public response to Hatoyama's pro-
nouncements will probably force the next Japanese government to
take some action toward establishing diplomatic relations with
the USSR and possibly Communist China.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Saigon clique reported planning overthrow of Diem government:
Comment: The alleged conspirators have
virtually no organization or popular following, and would have to
rely almost entirely on French support in order to succeed. The
Ministry for the Associated States in Paris as recently as 14 Jan-
uary, however, expressly endorsed Tran Van Huu for the premier-
ship.
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Tran Van Huu is on record in favor of
"coalition" with the Viet Minh,,
The Diem governments relations with
the Binh Xuyen have been improving, but that group has long fol-
lowed a policy of dispersing its investment
7. Fighting may intensify soon in northern Laos:
"Considerable hostilities" could break
out shortly in northern Laos if the
Laotian government responds as now
planned to continuing Pathet Lao attacks
in Sam Neua Province, the American legation in Vientiane re-
ports. The Laotian minister of defense is dispatching several
battalions to the province's southern boundary with the intention
of advancing into the province in the event of further attacks. The
minister says government forces now in the province are out-
numbered about six to one by Pathet Lao troops.
The legation comments that one favorable
effect of these Pathet Lao attacks is that they have apparently dis-
sipated some dangerous illusions of Laotian government officials
regarding the Pathet Lao.
Comment: Sporadic Pathet Lao attacks
in both Phong Saly and Sam Neua Provinces have occurred over
the past several months in contravention of the truce. The cur-
rent attacks in Sam Neua Province, which began on 13 January
and are reported to involve upwards of 1,200 Pathet Lao troops,
represent the most concerted effort by the Communists to date to
prevent the consolidation of royal government control in these
provinces.
French officials in Laos believe these
provinces will become permanent Communist possessions unless
drastic action--either military or a direct appeal to the Geneva
signatories�is taken soon by the Laotian government.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Comment on Arab hostility to proposed Iraqi-Turkish defense
treaty:
The initial strong Arab .reaction against
the Iraqi-Turkish declaration of intention
to conclude a defense pact "in the very
near future" will severely strain the ability of Iraqi prime minis-
ter Nuri to continue co-operating on Middle East defense plan-
ning.
The joint announcement has been received
with considerable surprise and little approval in the Arab capitals.
The consensus seems to be that Iraq has betrayed the Arab League
by making a major policy decision in favor of collaboration with
Turkey and the West without prior consultation with the other Arab
states.
Egypt, sensing an Iraqi challenge to
Cairo b leadership of the Arab League, has called an emergency
meeting of the league for 22 January to consider the situation.
Since league meetings on such issues
normally result in a reaffirmation of Arab solidarity, subsequent
Iraqi delay on the agreement with Turkey is likely to result.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Replacement of Portuguese defense minister reported imminent:
It is generally expected in Lisbon that
Defense Minister Santos Costa will soon
be replaced in a shake-up of the high com-
mands of the Portuguese Army and Defense
Ministries, according to the American
army attach�n Lisbon.
Comment: United States-Portuguese
negotiations for renewll of the Azores base agreement, which are
expected to begin next month, could be complicated or delayed by
a shake-up in the Defense Ministry.
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In any case, the removal of Santos
Costa would be a major change in the Portuguese government.
Salazar's support enabled him to advance to the ministry over
the heads of senior officers and to exercise strong personal con-
trol over defense matters. In spite of his unpopularity with army
commanders, Santos Costa has often been considered a possible
successor to Salazar. His removal now could indicate a desire
on the part of Salazar for stronger support from the army, an
important element in Portuguese politics.
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