CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02989045
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 14, 1955

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14 Tanuary 1955
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 66
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: eQL
AUTF-I: HR 70-2
DATE: e/ticso_ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TAD CECD-042-
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Viet Minh significantly strengthens antiaircraft capabilities
(page 3).
2. Comment on Laotian government policy toward Pathet Lao
(page 3).
3. USSR reported willing to make sizable purchase of Burmese
rice (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. North African disorders
5. Comment on the Iraqi-Turkish conversation in Baghdad (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Rumania moderates propaganda against Paris agreements (page 6) .
7. Belgrade reported discouraging formal Soviet moves toward
rapprochement between Communist parties (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French senators optimistic on Paris accords' chances page 8).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Viet Minh significantly strengthens antiaircraft capabilities:
Prior to the truce, the largest caliber
antiaircraft weapon the Viet Minh was believed to have was 40mm.
Its antiaircraft effort was generally ineffective until the Dien Bien
Phu campaign, when 37mm automatic weapons were introduced.
These in large measure prevented the resupply and reinforcement
of the French garrison.
The receipt of heavier antiaircraft weap-
ons and radar equipment, in clear violation of the truce agreement,
significantly strengthens the Viet Minh's antiaircraft capabilities
and is further evidence of the large-scale program carried on since
the truce to develop the Viet Minh army along more modern lines
with increased firepower. The new weapons will probably be used
by an antiaircraft artillery division now being organized.
(Concurred in by ORR)
2. Comment on Laotian government policy toward Pathet Lao:
The Laotian government appears to be
moving closer toward a coalition with
the Viet Minh-backed Pathet Lao, a
course previously rejected by Premier
Katay. Katay announced on 8 January
that members of the Pathet Lao would
receive appointments accordance
with the laws," but he left unexplained the nature of those appoint-
ments.
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Some 'toe
The government has also indicated a
willingness to concede partial control of the disputed northern
provinces to the Pathet Lao. At the same time, it has been
hinted that the ambitious Prince Petsarath, who has been seek-
ing a political comeback with Thai support, might soon return
from his exile in Thailand.
Petsarath is an avowed Pathet Lao leader.
"liaison" between Pet-
sarath and Prince Souphanouvong, the nominal Pathet Lao chief,
would lead to an easy takeover of Laos by the Communists.
Laos, rather
than South Vietnam, will see the major Viet Minh effort during
the next few months. South Vietnam remains the primary target,
however, and it is unlikely the Viet Minh would undertake such
bold and overt action in Laos as to prejudice its prospects in the
Vietnam elections scheduled for 1956.
3. USSR reported willing to make sizable purchase of Burmese rice:
Comment: If this sale to the USSR is con-
cluded, Burma will be committaio ship from 450,000 to 500,000
tons of rice to the Orbit in 1955--about a third of its total avail-
able for export. No Burmese rice had been sold to the Orbit prior
to last November. Since then 300,000 tons have been bought by
Communist China.
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The Burmese will undoubtedly seek
Soviet capital equipment in exchange for rice. The export of
150,000 tons would create credit for Soviet commodities worth
between $15,000,000 and $20,000,000, depending on the price set
for the rice.
Soviet-Burmese negotiations for a
general trade agreement were broken off last May as a result
of Burma's refusal to permit Moscow to name its own trading
agents in Rangoon. It is possible that Rangoon has finally de-
cided to concede this point.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. North African disorders
Algerian and Moroccan nationalists are
conferring in Algiers on the timing and
method for sabotage and guerrilla war-
fare,
If current French-Tunisian negotiations fail, Tunisian national-
ists would also co-operate. the Committee
of Liberation for North Africa, .with headquarters in Cairo, has
enough arms in Algeria for limited action.
With regard to Tunisia,
the fellagha order of battle is virtually unchanged in spite of the
group's "surrender." Most fellagha units in Libya are fully, armed
with modern automatic weapons and commanded by two former
officers of the French army who receive instructions regularly
from Salah ben Youssef, secretary general of the Tunisian nation-
alist Neo-Destour party.
Comment: These reports appear to be
exaggerated and are not supported by other available information.
Under present conditions, the French
are capable of suppressing any action which could be mounted by
North African nationalists. Considerable evidence links Cairo to
various North African nationalist activities, however, and it is
capable of giving them substantial support.
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5. Comment on the Iraqi-Turkish conversation in Baghdad:
The communiqu�ssued on 13 January
by Iraq and Turkey suggests that little
tangible progress has been made toward
Iraqi integration in Middle East defense planning.
The two governments formally announced
that they had decided to conclude, "as soon as possible," an agree-
ment "to co-operate to repel any aggression." However, the com-
munique provides that other states in the area interested in de-
fense be consulted before the agreement is concluded and invited
to sign it simultaneously with Turkey and Iraq. This practically
assures a considerable delay, during which time Egyptian leaders
and Arab League politicians will have an opportunity to exert a
negative influence.
The announcement constitutes a high
point in the improvement of Iraqi-Turkish relations and indirectly
suggests that other Arab states consider improving their relations
with Turkey.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Rumania moderates propaganda against Paris agreements:
anuary an
the
Rumanian propaganda campaign against
the Paris agreements had lost some of its
original impetus during the first week in
p shed official reaction had moderated0
the political director of the Rumanian Foreign Ministry appeared
desirous of minimizing earlier statements on the need to strengthen
Rumanian defenses in the face of West German rearmament. He
stressed the need for exploiting common points of understanding
between the two countries and continuing to work for peace.
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Comment: General Orbit propaganda
threatening that the Soviet bloc will take measures to strengthen
its defenses against a rearmed West Germany has markedly de-
creased since the French assembly vote. This has probably re-
sulted from an attempt to gain a greater propaganda impact from
a renewed campaign against ratification just prior to considera-
tion of the agreements by the French Council of the Republic in
February.
Rumors of extensive Orbit military
measures, which have been reported during the past month in
Bucharest, Prague, and Warsaw, have not been substantiated
and apparently resulted from the Orbit's propaganda campaign
against the Paris agreements.
7. Belgrade reported discouraging formal Soviet moves toward
rapprochement between Communist parties:
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Comment:
Any formal move toward co-operation
between the two Communist parties would probably be made in
hopes of developing more Yugoslav co-operation with the bloc and
less with the West, rather than in any hope that Yugoslavia would
at present return to the Soviet world.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French senators optimistic on Paris accords' chances:
Key French senators canvassed by
American officials are convinced that
the chances are good for ratification
of the Paris accords by the Council
o e epus ic, e senators interviewed thus far represent
all parties except the Communists, Gaullists, and the extreme
right.
Some senators expressed approval of
the arms production pool scheme but said they would not change
the present text of the accords to include this proposal. Several
senators who were unusually violent in their criticism of the
government suggested that Mendes-France is deliberately over-
stating the difficulties envisaged in order to take the credit later
for passage of the accords.
All senators canvassed agreed that any
Soviet attempt to influence the council against the accords would
have the opposite effect. Most of them believed that ratification
must be completed before another approach on East-West talks
is made to the USSR.
Comment:
There seems little likelihood that the West-
ern European Union countries will accept the French proposal in
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toto, but a compromise resulting in token approval of a pool with
some supranational trappings is likely and will probably satisfy
the council.
The reported views of these senators also
run counter to Mendes-France's argument that action on East-West
talks is essential to ensure council approval of the Paris accords.
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