CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/08/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017431
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: August 6, 1954

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6 August 1954
Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
f.1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2o/a
ALITH: HR 70-2
DATE: �Vile.10 . REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
Soviet ocean-going tanker tonnage doubled since 1952 (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Comment on Japanese reaction to Peiping's new overtures (page 3).
3. Central China's largest city threater.d by rising Yangtze River
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Viet Minh expected to have representative in French headquarters
in Saigon (page 4).
5. New firmness noted in Philippine foreign policy (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
6. Six nations protest Indian "aggression" against Portugal's posses-
sions (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. French government presses :for Soviet oil imports (page 6).
LATE ITEM
8. East Germany accepts President's flood relief offer (page 7
6 Aug 54
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SOVIET UNION
1. Soviet ocean-going tanker tonnage doubled since 1952z
three new tankers were
added to the Soviet merchant fleet in June
and July and : another tank-
er was delivered fastliDecember. All four or these Soviet-built
ships are believed to be of the 7,961-gross-ton Leningrad class.
Comment: The addition of these ships
brings Soviet tonnage of large ocean-going tankers to a level
roughly double that of mid-M2. Since then, ten large tankers
with a combined gross tonnage of over 80,000 tons have been put
Into service. Two of these were acquired from Denmark; the other
eight were constructed in Soviet yards. Two additional tankers, pre-
sumably also of the Leningrad class, are now under construction.
FAR EAST
2. Comment on Japanese reaction to Peiping's new overtures:
Japanese reactions to recent Communist
overtures indicate that the trend toward
regularizing relations with Peiping has
reached a new stage. The Japanese government on 3 August for
the first time officially granted permission for Communist Chinese
to visit Japan. A Chinese Red Cross mission was given authority
on that day to enter, and on the following day the Foreign Ministry
is reported to have decided to grant entry to Peiping trade represen-
tatives.
Sentiment for closer relations with the
Communist bloc has broad political support in Japan for economic
reasons. In addition, Communist success in the Indochina settle-
ment has given fresh impetus to the already strong popular enthusiasm
for working relations with mainland China.
6 Aug 54
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Japan can be expected to propose an ex-
change of trade representatives to which Peiping would respond
favorably. Such a response would strengthen the belief of influen-
tial Japanese leaders that Japan can deal advantageously with the
Communists and that it should become the bridge between the West
and Peiping.
3. Central China's largest city threatened by rising Yangtze River:
The swollen Yangtze River, which appeared
to be leveling off two weeks ago, rose four
inches on 4 August to a point two-and-one-
half feet above any past record at Hankow, according to Radio Peiping.
Moreover, swollen tributaries were expected to cause further rises.
Tungting Lake, normally an overflow reser-
voir for Yangtze floodwaters, is full and has begun to flow back into
the Yangtze. Peiping on 4 August described what appeared to be
desperate attempts to hold back the flood threat in the middle reaches
of the Yangtze River and particularly to save the city of Hankow, and
Its million inhabitants.
Comment: If the dikes surrounding Hankow
fail to hold, Central China's most Tmportant industrial, commercial
and transportation center will be paralyzed.
Peiping is silent on the extent of the flood
damage. While admitting that the flood threat has been the worst
the Yangtze Valley ever experienced, Peiping as recently as 2
August was insisting that flood damage had been limited by the re-
gime's dike-building and other flood-control efforts.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Viet Minh expected to have representative in French headquarters
in Saigon:
Pha,m Ngoc Thach, a Viet Minh official in
Cochinchina, will soon be named Viet Minh
representative to the French commissariat
6 Aug 54
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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general in aigon,
The
embassy comments that such a move would be consistent with Viet
Minh policy of dealing with the French and ignoring the Vietnamese
government.
Comment: Thach is a well-known Cochin-
china leader, expert in deTh-ring with Westerners, and ostensibly a
non-Communist. He would be a logical Viet Minh choice for such a
lob.
The French will be under strong pressure
to accept a Viet Minh representative if they carry out their tentative
plan to assign one of their own to the Viet Minh in Hanoi. Official
representation would enhance the Viet Minh's prestige in the south.
5. New firmness noted in Philippine foreign policy:
Ambassador Spruance in Manila reports
that the foreign policy views of the ultra-
nationalist Senator Recto and President
Magsaysay and his advisers are moving
closer together. Their thinking now converges on the urgency of
collective defense against Communism; the requirement that Manila
know exactly what it can expect from the United States under the
Mutual Defense Treaty before committing itself to SEATO, and the
unequivocal right of self-determination for Asian countries.
On the last point, Magsaysay's foreign
affairs adviser, reversing an earlier Philippine position, told an
embassy officer the government was not satisfied that Laos and
Cambodia were really independent and did not now plan to recognize
them.
Comment: The Philippines is at present
committed only to participate in an exploratory conference on
SEATO and is pressing for an ironclad American guarantee to de-
fend the islands before making further commitments.
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SOUTH ASIA
6. Six nations protest Indian "aggression" against Portugal's posses-
sions:
Spain, South Africa, Belgium, Luxembourg
and Chile have protested or agreed to pro-
test the invasion of Portugal's Indian pos-
sessions by "volunteers" based in India,
according to statements from the Portuguese Foreign Ministry.
The ministry has also urged the United States to publicize American
efforts to persuade India to refrain from violence.
Comment: In addition to the five countries
listed above, Brazil has publicly expressed its solidarity with the
Portuguese position.
These protest actions will probably� have
no effect on India. Nehru presumably believes that no major West-
ern power is willing to risk offending India while it is chairing the
Indochina truce supervision commission.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. French government presses for Soviet oil imports:
The French government's oil admintstra-
tion asked the French Oil Refinery Associa-
tion I to place orders for 550,000
tons of Soviet crude oil during the year. ending 1 July 1955,
The oil administration said it
was dissatisfied with the price of Middle East crude and would insist
on the introduction of other crudes into the French market.
Comm ant �
The 1953 trade agreement with the USSR provided for
the import of 400,000 tons of Soviet petroleum and petroleum products.
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T r P S R E-T
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Premier Mendes-France is eager for in-
creased trade with the Orbit as one way of relieving Franc's inter-
national payments position, particularly in view of the anticipated
drop in dollar aid for Indochina_ The search for cheaper raw
materials to lower French production costs will probably be inten-
sified as part of the premier's drive to make French prices more
competitive in world markets.
LATE ITEM
8. East Germany accepts President's flood relief offer:
On 5 August, Soviet high commissioner
Pushkin forwarded to Ambassador Conant
-a letter from East German premier
Grotewohl expressing readiness to accept
President Eisenhower's offer of flood relief. The letter proposed
further discussion of the forms of assistance and methods of organi-
zation.
Comment: In accepting the offer, the
Communists probably felt thaT-ht-6-7 had more to gain from an ap-
pearance of reasonableness than from an outright rejection, es'-
pecially since last year's negative reply to a similar offer led to
the Berlin food program which embarrassed the regime.
The negotiations on the relief plan provide
the East Germans with an opportunity to emphasize their sovereignty.
They probably hope to negotiate directly with the United States in
working out the details, and in case of difficulties will blame the
United States for the failure of the negotiations. As recently as 31
July, East Germany's leading newepaper called the flood offer "a
sinister offer of help" and suggested that the relief action was a
cover for rehabilitating .America'S "badly torn,netWQrit of agents.
The only other Satellite that has responded
to the American offer is Rumania, which expressed gratitude but ex-
plained that aid was not needed.
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