CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017427
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 30, 1954

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30 July 1954
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
OCCUMEN'T NO -I-7 wt,
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: Z30/0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE; FIF.'4WER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1.
2. Cambodia bases plans on assumption all Vietnam will go Communist
(page 3).
3. Current French Indochina policy outlined (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Henderson suggests American and British policies in Iran may
diverge (page 5).
5. Pro-Nasr demonstrations in Alexandria backfire (page 5).
6. Replacement of resident general in Tunisia expected (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Nicaragua sends heavily armed column to Costa Rican border
(page 6).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
1.
2. Cambodia bases plans on assumption all Vietnam will go Communist:
Cambodian officials feel that the results
of the Geneva conference provide them
merely with a respite in which to prepare for
renewed pressure after the extension of
Communist control over all of Vietnam,
the American embassy in Phnom Penh reports.
Cabinet ministers, in talks with the American
charg�stressed the need for overhauling the Cambodian economy
with direct American aid. The establishment of their own currency
and customs service and the reorientation of Cambodian trade from
Saigon to Thai or Cambodian ports are under consideration.
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Co.mment: Cambodia is determined to
create the economic and Military foundation necessary to resist
Communism. Cambodian plans are, however, in conflict with
France's intention to maintain a maximum of influence in the re-
tained areas of Indochina.
3, Current French Indochina policy outlined:
Minister for the Associated States La Chambre
told Ambassador Dillon in Paris on 27 July
that under the armistice agreement, American
military aid to Vietnam could continue as
long as it was channeled through the French. He said France intends
to build up the Vietnamese army as rapidly as possible until many
of the French Union units consist entirely of Vietnamese. The French
consider it now possible to develop an "autonomous" Vietnamese army
with its own general staff.
La Chambre said that Paris has decided
not to withdraw any large troop units for at least six or eight months.
He also said France feared that ratifying the treaty of independence
for Vietnam at this time would give the impression of creating a
permanent division of the country.
La Chambre indicated that Diem was
unsuitable as prime minister of Vietnam, and that the time had
come to ease out Bao Dai,
Comment: These statements indicate
French intentions to hang on to some prerogatives in Indochina,
as well as a desire to continue to benefit by having American aid
channeled through Paris. Such a policy would perpetuate Vietnamese
bitterness toward the French and greatly weaken the appeal of the
government in Saigon.
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N.-I
NEAR EAST AFRICA
4. Henderson suggests American and British policies in Iran may
diverge:'
Ambassador Henderson obtained the im-
pression from a conversation with British
ambassador Stevens on 27 July that Washington
and London have divergent views on the
problem of Iranian security. In his opinion London apparently doubts
that eventual Iranian adherence to the Turkish-Pakistani pact would
serve British interests and is "unenthusiastic" concerning American
programs for strengthening Iran's armed forces.
Henderson feels that the need for Anglo-
American agreement is urgent; otherwise, "we may find ourselves
giving the Iranians conflicting advice!'
Comment: Henderson has also severely
criticized British commercial operations in Iran as inimical to
American objectives. These and other indications of developing
Anglo-American policy conflicts in Iran suggest that co-operation
after an oil settlement may become more difficult.
5. Pro-Nasr demonstrations in Alexandria backfire:
Pro-Nasr demonstrations organized in
Alexandria between 22 and 26 July, in
celebration of the second anniversary of
the Egyptian army revolution, backfired
badly and resulted in demonstrations in
Nagib. The arrival of Nagib in Alexandria on
25 July touched off the most serious of the outbreaks, which con-
tinued throughout the following day.
According to the American consulate gen-
eral in Alexandria, the demonstrations were organized and paid for
by Leissy Abdul Nasr, brother of the premier and head of the local
regime-sponsored Liberation Rally. Local police were unable to
control the several clashes ensuing between Nasr and Nagib sup-
porters and had to be reinforced by army units.
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Comment: Nasr and the Revolutionary
Command Council have never enjoyed the genuine widespread
popular support accorded Nagib. Although successful conclusion
of the Suez agreement should appreciably strengthen Nasr's
prestige, the position of the regime is, therefore, largely depend-
ent on continued loyalty of the security forces.
6. Replacement of resident general in Tunisia expected:
Resident General Pierre Voizard
is going to Paris amidst strong in-
dications that he will be replaced.
Not only is he unpopular with Prime
Minister Mendes- France and Christian Fouchet, minister for Tunisia
and Morocco, but many French settlers also openly oppose his
"do-nothing attitude regarding assassinations."
The American consul general com-
ments that, though Voizard has failed to stamp out terrorism, and
has not given firm leadership since his 4 March reforms proved
unpalatable, Paris will have extreme difficulty in finding an able
successor who could both satisfy the enraged Frenth settlers and
pacify the Tunisians.
Comment: Since 1945, settler
opposition to reforms has brought about the replacement of two
residents general. The French settlers would also exert every form
of pressure to prevent the conciliatory policy outlined to Ambassador
Dillon in Paris on 27 July from being effected.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Nicaragua sends heavily armed column to Costa Rican border:
The dispatch of a heavily armed
Nicaraguan force to the Costa
Rican border on 29 July was
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decided on at all-night meetings of
the Nicaraguan cabinet and general
staff,
700 troops
were dispatched from Managua, and 800 more were to be brought
from other areas. Two light tanks, three half-tracks, and a few
jeeps pulling antitank guns were included in the force. The troops
were given strict instructions to take no aggressive action.
Somoza is reported to claim that the
movement is only a maneuver,
On 27 July, the American embassy
in San Jose reported that the Costa Rican Civil Guard and volunteer
forces were being mobilized on a national scale "with plans for all-
out war." Tension had been heightened by reports of an impending
attempt on the part of dissident elements based in Nicaragua to over-
throw the Figueres administration.
Comment: Costa Rica's 1,400-man
Civil Guard, which has only small arms and a few antiaircraft guns,
is not even capable of patrolling the country's borders. The govern-
ment's genuine alarm is indicated by its recent expulsion of a number
of Nicaraguan exiles long resident in Costa Rica.
Despite Somoza's disclaimers of
aggressive intentions, the activity of Costa-Rican would-be revolu-
tionaries in Nicaragua makes an attempt to overthrow Figueres a
possibility--either with or without clandestine assistance from the
Nicaraguan and Venezuelan governments.
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