CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/12/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03009190
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: December 24, 1954

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24 December 1954 '4/4
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Japanese plan cut in defense expenditures next year (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2.
3. Indonesian vice president notes vigorous leadership of Commu-
nist and National Parties (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Nehru reported warming toward Afro-Asian conference project
(page 5).
5. Comment on future form of government in Pakistan (page 6).
6. Pakistani Moslem League dissidents enlist pro-Communist legal
aid (page 6).
LATIN AmgRicA
7. Attempt to oust Costa Rican president would probably be supported
by Guatemala and Nicaragua (page 7).
8. Comment on Chilean dispute over state of siege (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Japanese plan cut in defense expenditures next year:
2.
Japan's fiscal 1955-56 budget now being
drafted does not allow for any expansion
of Japan's "self-defense" ground fofces
nor does it make any provision for an
increase of aircraft and ships, according to Ambassador Allison
in Tokyo. Moreover, the Japanese expect a substantial cut in
their contributions toward the maintenance of American forces
in Japan�
Comment: The present attitude of the
Japan Democrats suggests that despite their intense criticism
of Yoshida's slow rearmament policy, they will follow substantially
the same pattern, emphasizing that Japan's economic build-up is
paramount to an increased defense force.
The Hatoyama government has taken
the position that the constitution does not deny Japan the right
to maintain forces for self defense. The government hoped to
revise the constitution, however, to avoid "misunderstandings."
For both economic and political reasons, Japan is not likely to
make significant strides toward assuming its own defense respon-
sibilities until faced with the prospect of American redeployment
Japan's ground forces comprise six
divisions totaling 112,000 men, Its navy has a personnel strength
of 10,000, comprising 18 frigates and 160 smaller craft, while the
newly organized air force has only a few trainer planes.
24 Dec 54
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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3. Indonesian vice president notes vigorous leadership of Commu-
nist and National Parties:
Vice President Hatta still expresses
confidence in the return to power next
year of the Masjumi, the moderate
opposition party with which his sym-
pathies lie. He is frankly worried, however, about the weak-
ness of Masjumi leadership in contrast to the vigorous leader-
ship and skill of the National Party, which heads the present
government, and of the Indonesian Communists.
He thinks that recent reports of numer-
ical gains by the Indonesian Communists are "grossly exaggerated."
He believes, and Ambassador Cumming agrees, that the greatest
dangers from Communism in Indonesia are the continued infiltra-
tion of intellectual circles, and repeated compromises by the
National Party to retain Communist support.
Comment: The Masjumi is believed to
be the largest political organization in Indonesia. Its organization
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and strength rest largely on its hold on the Moslem priesthood,
which in turn influences much of the population.
Masjumi leaders, however, have done
little to activate this potentially great strength, apparently con-
fident that an eleventh-hour campaign will be sufficient to turn
out the vote. Meanwhile, the Nationalists and Communists are
making inroads among nominal Moslems and, if Indonesia's first
elections are delayed beyond 1955, their chances for continued
domination of the government will be greatly improved.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Nehru reported warming toward Afro-Asian conference project:
Prime Minister Nehru has now warmed
considerably toward the Indonesian pro-
posal for an Afro-Asian conference, which
will be considered at the Djakarta meet-
ing of the Colombo powers on 28 to 30
December. Secretary General Pillai of
the Indian Foreign Ministry told American
charge Kennedy on 21 December that
Nehru is seeking some formula on which to base invitations to the
meeting. Pillai stated that if this formula were to be "all Asia,"
then Communist China and Japan would be included.
Invitations to Peiping and Tokyo are also
favored by Krishna Menon, Nehru's foreign policy adviser, accord-
ing to the British deputy high commissioner in New Delhi. A New
Delhi press report of 21 December added Australia and New Zea-
land to the list of possible invitees whose presence would balance
that of Peiping.
Comment: These reports indicate a
marked change, possibly brought about by Menon, in Nehru's
hitherto cool attitude toward the vague Afro-Asian conference
project. Menon and Nehru may now see in the conference an op=
portunity to draw both Peiping and Tokyo away from the white
man's power blocs to which they now adhere.
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A bid to Japan, as well as to Australia
and New Zealand, might also serve to weaken any opposition by
other sponsoring Colombo powers to an invitation to Peiping.
5. Comment on future form of government in Pakistan:
Interior Minister Mirza gave Ambassa-
dor Hildreth information on 19 December
on the future form of government in
Pakistan which indicates that the pres-
ent ruling group has no intention of relinquishing control for at
least two more years.
According to Mirza, plans are under
way to call a hand-picked constitutional convention in January
which will "present" a constitution to Pakistan and maintain the
present regime in office. Hildreth infers that the convention
would then immediately dissolve and that the present cabinet would
rule without a legislature for two years before general elections
take place.
Following national elections, Mirza fore-
sees a government of presidential rather than cabinet type, with
strong emphasis on the powers of the executive branch, which
will not be responsible to the legislature.
The type of thinking displayed by Mirza
confirms other indications that the ruling group will make little
effort during the next few years to build a sound grass-roots polit-
ical party system in Pakistan but will continue, and possible wide;
the gap between government and people in it, efforts to maintain
discipline and tability within the country.
6. Pakistani Moslem League dissidents enlist pro-Communist legal
aid:
The British lawyer D. N. Pritt began
argument before a Pakistani court on
21 December in support of a petition
challenging the legality of Governor General Ghulam Mohammad's
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dismissal of the assembly on 24 October. The petition was filed
by the former president of the Pakistani Constituent Assembly.
The assembly was dismissed following the attempt on 21 Septem-
ber by dissident Moslem League members in the assembly to strip
the governor general of his powers.
Comment: The appearance in this case
of Pritt, known internationally i� pro-Communist lawyer, sug-
gests that the defeated Moslem League dissidents are now will-
ing to enlist Communist support in seeking revenge. The Commu-
nists may therefore for the first time in Pakistan's history be able
to capitalize on the intimate knowledge of government operations
provided by a former prime minister and several ministers and
parliamentarians.
Pritt, who received a Stalin Peace Prize
on 21 December 1954, defended Indian Communists on trial in
1950. He helped to defend Kenya Mau Mau leader Jomo Kenyatta
in 1952. In November 1954 he defended the pro-Communist Ceylon-
ese publication Trine in a case involving alleged defamation of
Governor Generonetilleke.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Attempt to oust Costa Rican president would probably be supported
by Guatemala and Nicaragua:
24 Dec 54
The American embassy in Guatemala
cited on 22 December several developments
which "strongly suggest" that the Castillo
Armas government is materially support-
ing a move to oust Costa Rican president
Figueres.
An F-47 aircraft, stripped of its Guatemalan
air force markings, left Guatemala on 15
December, probably for an airfield in east-
ern Nicaragua. Guatemalan officials, in-
cluding the president, were evasive when
queried about the plane and when urged
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not to become involved in Costa Rican affairs.
Comment: Aircraft, even one or two,
could be a decisive factor in the long-rumored attempt against
Figueres.
8. Comment on Chilean dispute over state of siege:
President Ibanez' decision to continue
the state of siege in Chile, despite
congressional rejection of his declara-
tion of 20 September, will probably
increase tension in Chile and encourage
fears that the president intends to disband Congress and rule by
decree. Ibanez is still in control of the situation, however.
The Chilean Senate rejected the presi-
dent's declaration on 22 December, following similar action by
the Chamber of Deputies. The interior minister has declared
that the issue will go to the courts and that the government will
abide by their decision.
Earlier it had appeared that Ibanez
would accept congressional rejection of the state of siege and
would request extraordinary powers specifically to combat Com-
munism�the principal announced purpose of the siege declara-
tion. It is doubtful that the government would consider it safe to
abide by a court decision depriving it at any early date of the pow-
ers to deal with the problem of Communist influence on organized
labor in the copper mines and other industries.
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