CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02026938
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 7, 1954

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7 April 1954
Copy No. 7 6
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE ULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
L I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS � S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: QC9
AUTH: HR. 70-2
DATE:P64117:9.. REVIEWER:1
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Soviet note seeks to accord special status to Communist China at
Geneva (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on Viet Minh reinforcements for Dien Bien Phu (page 3).
3. Viet Minh believed capable of further major assaults on Dien Bien
Phu (page 4).
4.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iraqi leader suggests modification of Turkish-Pakistani pact
(page 6).
6. Syrian cabinet seen seriously split (page 7).
7. American and British ambassadors appraise Egyptian situation
(page 8).
8. French-Moroccan situation worsens (page 8).
9. Kenya government planning new anti-Mau Mau measures (page 9).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French timetable calls for late May EDC debate (page 9).
LATE ITEM
11. Air shipments to Kunming in southwest China increasing (page 10).
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GENERAL
1. Soviet note seeks to accord special status to Communist China at Geneva:
The Soviet reply of 5 April to the Western
aide memoire on administrative arrange-
ments for Geneva argued that the Berlin
agreement makes it clear that all five
powers should participate "on an equal basis" in the examination of
"all questions relating to the conference."
The note also proposed, on the basis of the
Berlin agreement, that Chinese be an official language, along with
English, French and Russian, "during the course of the whole confer-
ence." It stressed that Korean should be an official language only during
the consideration of the Korean question.
Comment: This is the latest move in a
continuing Soviet effort since Berlin to confer on China a status equal
to the four sponsoring powers, or at least superior to that of the other
"invited powers."
The insistence on China's participation
throughout the conference may foreshadow a Soviet demand at Geneva
that China be included in the negotiations on the composition and scope
of the discussion on Indochina.
SOTJTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on Viet Minh reinforcements for Dien Bien Phu:
Further indication of a Viet Minh intent
to take Dien Bien Phu regardless of cost
is the reported large-scale movement of
enemy reinforcements toward the battle
area. The number and arrival dates can-
not be accurately determined, but informa-
tion from French intelligence suggests that
close to 20,000 troops may now be en route.
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Of these, one group of 10,000 and another
of 3,000 are recruits who were recently undergoing training to the
south and north of the Tonkin delta. The movement of the larger
group is reported to have been delayed by heavy rains.
Up to 1,600 first-line troops from a
regiment of the 304th Division near the apex of the delta have also
been ordered to move toward Dien Bien Phu, according to French
information. Other regular units numbering about 4,0002which have
been engaged against pro-French guerrillas north and west of Dien
Bien Phu, and an undetermined number of regional forces from both
Tonkin and Laos, have also allegedly been ordered to reinforce the
besieging troops; these units could arrive within several days.
In addition to the reinforcements now en
route, the Viet Minh received 3,000 replacements last week which it
has already committed. Reports from De Castries' headquarters
indicate that the extreme youth and lack of training of these replace-
ments were partially responsible for the weaker enemy efforts of the
past few days.
Viet Minh believed capable of further major assaults on Dien Bien Phu:
French intelligence officers at Hanoi
estimated as of 6 April that the Viet Minh
at Dien Bien Phu had, or soon would have,
the capability for "two more nights of major
assault." While they feel the Viet Minh may attempt attritional warfare
to capture the fortress, they consider an all-out attack more likely.
De Castries reported at 0900 on 6 April that sporadic enemy fire was
continuing, but that there was no change in his positions. (See map, p. 5.)
The French command in Hanoi had to call
off a scheduled drop of reinforcements on the night of 5-6 April because
of stormy weather.
Information from captured prisoners sug-
gests that the heavy Viet Minh attack on 5 April was hurriedly staged
as a reply to Navarre's announced intention of landing hospital planes
on that day. Prisoner interrogation also indicates that Viet Minh units
used on 5 April were reduced in strength.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Iraqi leader suggests modification of Turkish-Pakistani pact:
Iraq's elder statesman Nun i Said believes
that the Turkish-Pakistani pact should be
amended to provide that an unprovoked
attack on Iraq or its neighbors "would
bring the military aspect of the pact into play." Nun told Ambassador
Berry in Baghdad that the Arab states would read into such an amend-
ment a promise of Pakistani aid in the event of an unprovoked Israeli
attack on Syria. In this way, Nun i explained, Arab opposition to Iraqi
participation in the pact would be eliminated.
Nun i told Ambassador Berry that this
amendment was favored by Pakistani officials, to whom he had broached
it during recent talks with them, but they thought it should be advanced
by the United States.
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Comment: Ankara and Karachi would
probably oppose any amendment which is susceptible of an anti-
Israeli interpretation, despite Nun's statement that Pakistan approved
his plan.
In asking for this amendment, Nun i is doing
what Iraqi prime minister Iamali is doing in current negotiations for
an Iraqi-American arms aid agreement--using the prospect of popular
opposition as a lever for extracting maximum concessions from the West.
Meanwhile, Iraq is getting additional time for pondering the situation.
6. Syrian cabinet seen seriously split:
The Syrian cabinet is divided on the question
of what action should be taken to maintain
internal stability and may fall at any time,
the prime minister and the minister of
interior have privately admitted that Commu-
nists and leaders of the extremist Arab
Socialist-Resurrectionist Party are seizing every opportunity to cause
trouble.
On 2 April, Acting Foreign Minister Azm
told Ambassador Moose in Damascus that the government could move
against these left-wing radicals only if it received help from the West
on the Palestine issue. According to Moose, Azm's statement was prob-
able prompted by reports of unrest among left-wing army officers, as
well as by Socialist-Resurrectionist opposition to the cabinet.
Comment: Leftist agitation and army
unrest will continue to grow if Syria's major parties--the Nationalists
and Populists--are unable to achieve a working unity. They have ap-
parently failed to agree on whether ex-president Quwatli should be
allowed to return to run for the presidency in the elections promised
for Stine.
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7. American and British ambassadors appraise Egyptian situation:
The immediate prospects of the Revolutionary
Command Council retaining control of the
situation in Egypt are "fairly good," provided
there is no outbreak of terrorist activities,
according to the American and British ambassadors in Cairo.
The council's continuation in power depends
on the prospects of a Suez base settlement, however. A prolonged delay
In resuming negotiations will increase the risk of further dissension
within the council and the Egyptian army.
If an Anglo-Egyptian agreement is reached,
the regime could be expected to "survive in some form" until January
1956--end of the proclaimed three-year period of transition to civil
government.
The council, "or any successor government
created by it," can be expected to carry out commitments it has freely
undertaken. The ambassadors believe there is no alternative Egyptian
government in sight which would be as satisfactory to the West as the
present regime.
8. French-Moroccan situation worsens:
The split between urban Moroccans and the
French is now practically complete, accord-
ing to the American consul general in Casa-
blanca. French contact with friendly elements
has been broken by fear of terrorist retaliation;
terrorist attacks are shifting from Moroccan to French officials.
The consul general reports a growing belief
among local French officials that the present reform program will do
little to improve the situation, and thus is scarcely worth the effort.
Comment: Other reports indicate a growing
anti-French, anti-sultan sentiment in normally pro-French rural areas.
There is also recent evidence of an increasing belief among pro-French
Moroccans that measures must be taken to appease popular feeling.
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9. Kenya government planning new anti-Mau Mau measures
The Kenya government is planning to
evacuate 10,000 Kikuyu residents from
Nairobi in mid-April in order to relieve
the present insecurity there,
Mau Mau
adherents and sympathizers will be picked up in a mass screening
operation and deported to two communal work camps.
that the surrender
appeals by captured "General China" to other Mau Mau leaders will
fail because of his limited influence over them.
Comment: These plans may have resulted
from the recent visit of the colonial secretary and the chief of the
Imperial General Staff. The deportation might cripple terrorist
activity for a while, but would be unlikely to eliminate the Mau Mau
in Nairobi, where there are 50,000 Kikuyu residents.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French timetable calls for late May EDC debate:
Socialist
18 May.
French foreign minister Bidault outlined
to Ambassador Dillon on 1 April a timetable
calling for National Assembly debate on EDC
to begin on 25 May.
Bidault said that he plans a conference with
Chancellor Adenauer on the Saar in mid-May,
and has ordered the preparatory negotiations
in Bonn reopened. He does not expect the
Party to hold its planned congress on EDC prerequisites before
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Comment: The government is under
pressure from the Popular Republicans who have threatened to
withdraw from the coalition if debate on the treaty is not begun
prior to their party congress on 27 May. The government is
apparently discounting the danger that further obstacles will develop
during the course of the Geneva talks.
LATE ITEM
11. Air shipments to Kunming in southwest China increasing:
Comment: Kunming is a principal supply
center on the main rail-highway route into western Indochina. The
air transport activity to Kunming is believed to reflect an increase
in supplies to the Viet Minh in western Tonkin,
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