CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/11/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017645
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: November 5, 1954

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5 November 1954 3.5(c) 0
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Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO, 3
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I Office of Current Intelligence /./
DATE: A.A6.0-- REVIEWER.
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AUTH: HR 70-2 74
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. USSR favors UN \atomic agency with "universal" membership (page 3).
2. Dutch seeking American support on New Guinea question in UN
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh chief in Hanoi shows friendly attitude toward British
mission (page 4).
4. Early Indonesian recognition of Associated States of Indochina
unlikely (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Pakistani government to abolish provincial governments (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Nases successor reported chosen (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
7, Czechoslovakia quietly releasing many imprisoned during Slanslcy
trial (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
8. Honduran president may extend own term in face of election stale-
mate (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. USSR favors UN atomic agency with "universal" membership:
Soviet ambassador Zarubin is reported
to have told the Yugoslav UN delegate
that the USSR believes the development
of atomic energy for. peaceful uses
y a "UN agency" with "universal" member-
ship, rather than a specialized agency. Ambassador Lodge com-
ments that by an agency with "universal" membership, Zarubin
presumably means one including Communist China.
Zarubin also said that the conference
of experts proposed by the West to explore means of developing
peaceful uses of atomic energy should be a "UN conference,"
Comment: The "UN agency" suggested
by Zarubin presumably would be subject to a Soviet veto in the
Security Council. An international atomic energy agency as en-
visioned by the Western powers would be a specialized agency
with indirect ties to the UN. Under the Western plan, agency
membership would be open to all members of the UN and its
specialized agencies. This would exclude Communist China.
2. Dutch seeking American support on New Guinea question in UN:
Dutch co-foreign minister Luns has told
Ambassador Matthews that the Nether-
lands will not accept any UN resolution,
no matter how mild,on New Guinea. He
added that his parliament found it hard to understand why the
United States and other countries do not openly support the Nether-
lands on this issue.
Luns also expressed the belief that the
United States was abstaining on the New Guinea question in the UN
out of fear that the Communists might be strengthened if Indonesia
were defeated on this issue. He had heard that moderate Indonesians
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were, on the contrary, privately urging UN delegations to vote
against the Indonesian draft resolution on New Guinea since suc-
cess in this matter for the present incompetent regime would not
be in Indonesia's interest,
Comment: Luns has told the Dutch press
that the current atmosphere in the General Assembly is much more
favorable toward the Netherlands than it was before Indonesia re-
ceived its independence�
Should Indonesia fail to obtain satisfac-
tion in the UN, it will probably initiate more drastic action
against the Dutch in Indonesia.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh chief in Hanoi shows friendly attitude toward British
mission:
General Vuong Thua Vu, chief of the
Hanoi administration, told British consul
general Baker during a friendly meeting
on 3 November that the Viet Minh would
be pleased to enter into relations with the British mission� Ac-
cording to Baker, Vu indicated by unfriendly references to the
United States that the British in Hanoi would be accorded a differ-
ent status and treatment from the Americans. Vu specifically
charged that the United States is obstructing Viet Minh efforts to
import gasoline.
Comment: This Viet Minh attitude is in
line with the general Orbit policy of trying to drive a wedge be-
tween the United States and its major allies,
The American consul reported on 1 No-
vember that the next Viet Minh move might be direct expulsion
or an order silencing the consulate's radio transmitter. A third
possibility he fears is a refusal to permit the consulate to have
legal access to local currency. The consulate's present supply
of currency was provided by the French in a one-time deal and
will be expended by the end of November.
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4. Early Indonesian recognition of Associated States of Indochina
unlikely:
Public opinion in Indonesia makes it
politically impossible to recognize
Vietnam, according to members of an
Indonesian mission now visiting Indo-
china to study the question of recognizing the Associated States.
They expressed to the American ambassador in Phnom Penh con-
siderable doubt that Indonesian public opinion would permit recog-
nition even of Cambodia and Laos. They said their people regard
Indochina as an entity with two opposing champions, one good and
one bad, in the persons of Ho Chi Minh and Bao Dal,
The leader of the mission said, however,
he would recommend that Indonesia send a representative to re-
side in Phnom Penh with the purpose of ultimately granting de jure
recognition. He thought a possible solution to recognition of Viet-
nam would be to accredit consuls resident in both Hanoi and Saigon.
Comment: Most Indonesians have re-
garded Ho CM Minh as a iTaTionalist leader and Bao Dai as a
French puppet. Indonesian leaders, moreover, have tended to
consider recognition of the Associated States as tantamount to
siding with the West and thus inconsistent with their government's
"independent" foreign policy.
Anxiety over Communist encroachment
in Southeast Asia, however, and Burma's example of recogniz-
ing Laos and Cambodia appear to have prompted Indonesia to
consider recognition more seriously than heretofore.
SOUTH ASIA
5. Pakistani government to abolish provincial governments:
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Karachi intends to abolish all pro-
vincial legislatures and reconstitute
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the country into two governmental units--presumably East and
West Pakistan�under a strong national government with a unicam-
eral legislature, the dissolution of the Bahawalpur
State legislature and cabinet, which was carried out on 3 November,
was the first step in this plan.
Comment: Principal purpose of the re-
organization presumably is to reduce the power of East Pakistan
in the national legislature, where the more populous East Paki-
stan now controls the majority of the seats. The two new units
presumably would have equal standing. The recent coup against
the central government was led by East Pakistanis, There is little
likelihood that East Pakistanis can prevent the reorganization.
The change apparently will be accom-
plished prior to elections for a new Constituent Assembly, It is
still too early to determine whether the plan would be acceptable
to a new Assembly, but the governor general and his supporters
are unlikely to face this problem in the near future.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Nasr's successor reported chosen:
Major General Hakim Amir, 34-year-old
commander in chief of the Egyptian armed
forces and minister of war, has been des-
ignated to succeed Prime Minister Nasr as
e military regime in the event of Nases death,
Wing Commander Gamal Salim,
present vice premier, is reported to be next in line of succession
after Amir,
ea
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Comment: The selection of Hakim Amir,
a loyal supporter of Nasr, as heir apparent of the regime in place
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of Gamal Salim, who has acted as second in command on the basis
of seniority, indicates that Nasr is attempting to increase his
personal control over the council.
Neither Amir nor Salim would be a strong
leader and either would experience great difficulty in maintain-
ing his position. Nasr has dominated Egyptian affairs during the
months of complex negotiations with Britain, and his death would
almost certainly lead to an internal struggle for power and the pos-
sible disintegration of the regime.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Czechoslovakia quietly releasing many imprisoned during Slansky
trial:
Czechoslovakia's recent release of Israeli
citizen Shimon Orenstein, who had been
implicated in the Slansky purge trial in
1952, coincides with the current policy
of quibtly releasing many of the individuals imprisoned during
the Slansky indictments, according to the American embassy in
Prague.
Comment: This is the first indication
that Czechoslovakia, like Hungary and to a lesser extent Bulgaria,
has begun to release citizens involved in major purge trials dur-
ing the Stalin era.
These releases may parallel develop-
ments in Hungary, where the freeing of several "national devia-
tionists" is part of a pattern of current efforts to utilize national-
ism as a stimulus to morale. The original accusations against
those being released in Czechoslovakia, however, are not yet
known.
The announcement of Orenstein's release
from a sentence of life imprisonment followed by only a few days
the Polish announcement of the freeing of American citizen
Hermann Field.
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LATIN AMERICA
8, Honduran president may extend own term in face of election stale-
mate:
Honduran president Galvez gave Ambassa-
dor Willauer the "definite impression" on
2 November that he now favors continu-
ing in office beyond his constitutional term
in order to prevent the Liberal Party from
gaining power in the current electoral deadlock. The president
charged that the Liberal leaders, including the party's presidential
candidate, are strongly influenced by Communism.
An influential adviser of the Nationalist
presidential candidate, ex-dictator Carias, agreed with the ambas-
sador on 3 November that the popular strength of the Liberal Party
made a peaceful solution impossible without substantial Liberal
participation in the next government.
Comment: Galvez' estimate of the degree
of Communist influence among the Liberals is probably excessive,
Some Liberal leaders are believed to have accepted Communist
support in the past but currently profess a strong anti-Communist
stand,
The Liberals, who won a much larger
popular vote than either of the other two parties in the 10 October
elections, are becoming increasingly bitter over electoral frauds
committed against their candidates. They may resort to con-
spiracy and violence and become more vulnerable to Communist
influence,,
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