CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993990
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 3, 1954

r312 d for R.; 2s?11:)8 /�. /IC1)2E729937
3.3(h)(2)
3 March 1954
3.5(c)
Copy No, 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. 2C 0.9
AUTH: HR 70-2 el
DATE: 1.10.e.COREVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Churchill's statements expected to have paralyzing effect on COCOM
(page 3).
2. British favor French proposal for tripartite talks on Near East
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3. USSR conducts military training against atomic weapons (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Chinese Communists maintain air strength in south Manchuria
(page 4).
5. Peiping takes major step toward food control (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Ho Chi Minh reportedly proposes coalition Vietnamese government
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian government disturbed at delay in oil negotiations (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
8. Panama threatens to withdraw from Canal Zone treaty talks (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Churchill's statements expected to have paralyzing effect on COCOM:
Prime Minister Churchill's statements in
the House of Commons on 25 February will
have a paralyzing effect on COCOM and
prevent any agreement on future controls
until the statements have been clarified in
a COCOM Consultative Group meeting,
according to American officials in Paris.
They add that France's position is very close
to Britain's in advocating a very short embargo list and possible elimi-
nation of all quantitative controls.
According to the American embassy in
London, Britain is now calling formally for a reassessment of present
trade controls to bring them into line with the new "long haul" approach
to building up Western defense.
Comment: The embassy in London believes
that chances of altering the new British policy are remote. Other COCOM
countries, particularly those in Western Europe, can generally be ex-
pected to support the British and French positions.
2. British favor French proposal for tripartite talks on Near East.:
The American embassy in London reports
that the reaction of the British Foreign
Office is "rather favorable" to a French
proposal made in London and Washington
for tripartite talks on the Near East, with particular reference to
recent developments in Syria. The British, however, would want to
include the Arab-Israeli problem.
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SOVIET UNION
3. USSR conducts military training against atomic weapons:
Soviet
military personnel are being trained
in defense against atomic attack.
in late January,
the 23rd Antiaircraft Artillery Division stationed near Vienna engaged
in a tactical exercise including a simulated atomic bomb attack.
Comment: Such training in the defensive
aspects of atomic warfare would logically proceed from Soviet knowl-
edge that the United States has developed nuclear weapons of a tactical
type.
FAR EAST
4. Chinese Communists maintain air strength in south Manchuria:
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Comment:
There have been no reports of additional
jet planes in the Yalu area since the cease-fire, but MIG-15's from
at least three Soviet jet fighter regiments reportedly deactivated in
Manchuria in August were probably made available to Chinese units.
The number of Chinese and Soviet MIG-15's
near the Yalu is estimated at about 600. In addition approximately
150 MIG-15's belonging to the North Korean air force are now based
at fields in North Korea.
5. Peiping takes major step toward food control:
Peiping has just announced that following
a decree of 19 November urban food ration-
ing and quotas for grain sales by the peasants
to the state were instituted throughout most of China. Private grain
merchants were outlawed.
Comment: This announcement is the
first indication that Peiping has imposed Soviet-type delivery quotas
on the peasant, and clarifies scattered reports during the winter of
rationing and of the outlawing of private food merchants.
Increased state control over foodstuffs is
desired by Peiping both as a part of its accelerated drive this year
toward industrialization and socialism, and in order to control wide-
spread food shortages.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Ho Chi Minh reportedly proposes coalition Vietnamese government:
Vietnamese nationalist sources in touch
with the Viet Minh have informed the
British embassy in Saigon that Ho Chi
Minh has offered to negotiate on the
understanding that his followers would receive two unspecified
portfolios in a Vietnam-Viet Minh coalition. Ho reportedly indi-
cated that such an arrangement would ensure his control over the
coalition within six months.
The British Foreign Office, which trans-
mitted this information, regards it as probably true.
Comment The reported open expression
of Ho's confidence in his ability to gain control of a coalition detracts
from the credibility of this report.
The Viet Minh can, however, advance
proposals at any time for a coalition government or plebiscite which
would be difficult for the French to reject and which would almost
certainly lead to Viet Minh control.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian government disturbed at delay in oil negotiations:
beginning on 21 March,
Prime Minister Zahedi and his cabinet
are worried over the delay in opening oil
negotiations and are even willing to forego
the traditionally long New Year's holidays,
to carry on talks.
Ambassador Henderson warns that a final
agreement should be submitted to the Majlis for ratification before
the opposition has time to organize. He remarks that soon after the
Majlis meets, demagogic deputies may take action which would lay
the basis for new nationalist opposition.
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Comment: Plans to organize an opposition
group are reputedly being made by a son and a son-in-law of Mullah
Kashani, who were recently elected to the Majlis. If these men can
win over other opportunistic deputies before an agreement is ratified,
they may be in a position to block or delay an oil settlement.
LATIN AMERICA
8. Panama threatens to withdraw from Canal Zone treaty talks:
Panamanian president Remon has decided
to break off the Canal Zone treaty talks
with the United States "with fanfare" unless
the negotiations take a quick turn for the
better, according to Foreign Minister Guizado.
Guizado told Ambassador Chapin on 26 February that the offer of a
$10,000,000, ten-year economic development program was "completely
unacceptable and even insulting." He emphasized Panama's demand for
20 percent of the canal company's gross profits.
Chapin believes that these statements were
partly bluff, but that Remon and Guizado are serious in their threat
to break off the talks. Remon is so deeply committed politically on
the treaty issue that failure in the talks might lead him, or his suc-
cessor if he is forced to resign, to violent nationalism and anti-
Americanism.
Comment: In the talks which began in
Washington last September, Panama has sought increased economic
benefits, a cessation of commercial activities which compete with
Panamanian business, and an end to discrimination against Panamanian
workers in the Canal Zone. Remon may feel that his bargaining posi-
tion is temporarily enhanced by the Caracas conference.
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