CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017424
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 24, 1954

Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017424,
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3.3(h)(2)
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24 July 1954
Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOOLIMENt NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Ci DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20/ 0 ,
MYTH: FIR 70-2
DATE: .,7,71/16.0___ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Ulbricht visit to Moscow may foreshadow new Soviet moves in
Germany (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Comment on Soviet plan fulfillment for the first half of 1954
(page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Comment on loss of British airliner off Hainan (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4.
LATIN AMERICA
5. Comment on new Argentine "supercabinet" (page 6).
* * * *
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GENERAL
1. Ulbricht visit to Moscow may foreshadow new Soviet moves in Germany:
American officials in Berlin believe that the
publicly announced presence in Moscow of
East German deputy premier Ulbricht and
President Pieck may mean that high-level
discussions are taking place, possibly on a Soviet-East German pact.
They believe a friendship pact to change the
status of Soviet troops to a "protective force" would be consistent with
current Soviet policy, but that an Eastern European security pact in-
cluding East Germany would be unlikely until French intentions on EDC
become clear. Another possible agreement would grant East Germany
responsibility for negotiating German reunification.
American officials also believe it possible
that the visit by Ulbricht and Pieck may be laying the groundwork for
a Soviet-proposed international conference on Germany and European
security.
Comment: Planning for an intepnational
conference is the most likely subject of the current discussions, at
which former high commissioner Semenov is probably also present.
It is possible that French Communist leader Thorez, who left France
for Moscow on 16 July, is also participating in the discussions.
While details of a treaty between the USSR
and East Germany may be under discussion, there is not likely to be
any announcement of a security pact before an attempt is made to hold
another international conference. The Soviet Union will probably urge
that another conference grant considerable responsib�
tion attempts directly to the East and West Germans.
SOVIET UNION
2. Comment on Soviet plan fulfillment for the first half of 1954:
Reversal of the declining trend of the past
several years in the growth of capital in-
vestment and industrial labor productivity
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is the most significant feature of the plan fulfillment report for the
first half of 1954 released on 22 July by the Soviet Central Statisti-
cal Administration.
Capital investment increased 14 percent
over the first half of 1953, as compared with a 4-percent increase in
1953 over 1952. Maintenance of this growth rate through 1955 will
permit achievement of the five-year target for capital investment.
Industrial labor productivity rose 7. 5
percent over the first half of 1953, while the corresponding increase
from 1952 to 1953 was 6 percent. While this rate of growth will not
permit achievement of the five-year target for labor productivity,
continuing above-plan increases in the size of the industrial labor force
made possible a 14-percent gain in gross industrial output during the
first half of 1954. This will ensure fulfillment of the 1955 output plan.
However, the output of pig iron, oil and fertilizer is below that neces-
sary to meet five-year goals. Large percentage increases were re-
ported in the output of a number of consumer durables.
The current emphasis on increasing agricul-
tural output is also shown by the continued shift of technically trained
manpower to agriculture and the large allocations of mechanical equip-
ment.
FAR EAST
3. Comment on loss of British airliner off Hainan:
The British airliner of the Cathay Pacific
Airlines lost while en route from Hanoi
to its home base at Hong Kong was appar-
ently shot down by fighter planes off the
sland on the morning of 23 July. At least one pas-
senger is known to have suffered bullet wounds and another reported
that while in the water he saw a straight-wing propeller-driven plane
1,000 feet overhead.
Comment: The Chinese Communists
have shown sensitivity to flights near Chinese territory, but this
is the first time such an attack has occurred in this area.
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As the attack was made in an area believed
to be out of range for Chinese Communist MIG's based at Canton, the
nearest known jet fighter base, it is possible that the attackers came
from Suichi on the Leichou Peninsula, opposite Hainan.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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LATIN AMERICA
5. Comment on new Argentine "supercabinet":
Peron's appointment on 22 July of a
five-man "supercabinet," which is to
act as an all-powerful junta in the formu-
lation of government policy, may be
merely a step to help correct known government inefficiency. The
action lends plausibility, however, to the many reports that Peron
Is seriously ill.
If Peron is gravely ill, the "supercabinet"
would be a convenient medium for transferring power to Vice Presi-
dent Teisaire, who won his post in a special election in April and in
the "supercabinet" now occupies a key role as secretary for political
affairs. The other new appointees include Foreign Minister Remorino
and three other members of the previous 21-man cabinet, which has
now been reduced to 16 ministers.
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