CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/11/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020907
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 3, 1953

,Approved for Release: 2019/07/10 CO2020907
SEC INFORMATION
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3 November 1953
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Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 4$
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: ?rie3 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 4.0/1/?/7.9_ REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
101"...#'Soviet official hints at tactics on four-power conference (page 3).
2. Czechoslovakia offers to make concessions to increase trade
. vith Austria (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Indian official says NNRC may hold Korean POW's indefinitely
,(page 4).
11.0C
SOUTHEAST ASIA
if/French operation in south Tonkin fails to bring strong Viet Minh
reaction (page 5).
6. Burma blames Nehru for its rice surplus (page 7).
SOUTH ASIA
7. Communists are well entrenched in ICashmiri government (page 8).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
E. Israeli prime minister expected to resign by 20 November page 8).
EASTERN EUROPE
'East German forces alerted in Berlin area (page 9).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Pella reduces Italian conditions for attending five-power Trieste
conference (page 10).
11. Denmark may compromise on manning of NATO air bases (page 10).
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GENERAL
1. Soviet official hints at tactics on four-power conference:
A Soviet official in Bern expressed the 3.3(h)(2)
opinion that the Soviet Union was unlikely
to take part in a four-power conference unless
a five-power conference were called simul-
taneously, according to the Swiss legation in.Washington.
Comment: The anticipated Soviet note on
the projected Lugano conference may well contain a new stalling
device in specifying that the two conferences, as proposed in the
Soviet note of 28 September, be held simultaneously.
Ambassador Bohlen, on the other hand,
has suggested that the reply might propose a preparatory meeting
of deputy foreign ministers similar to the 1951 Palais Rose4conference.
The USSR could stretth out such a Meeting indefinitely by means
such as proposing agenda items for a five-power conference on
"lessening international tensions," even though there is little
difference between the latest Western and Soviet proposals for a
broad agenda on Germany at a four-power meeting.
2. Czechoslovakia offers to make concessions to increase trade with
Austria:
An official of the Czech Ministry of
Foreign Trade proposed to the Austrian
legation in Prague on 8 October that
negotiations for a new trade agreement
be undertaken in November. The Czech government is now repre-
sented as ready to adopt measures "more acceptable to Austria"
in order to improve trade relations.
Comment: This is the first indication
that a Satellite governmentl-g7elaT to make concessions on its
own initiative in order to increase trade with the West in accordance
with the new Orbit economic policy. In the past, concessions by
Orbit negotiators were made only to improve their bargaining
position.
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In line with current Soviet trade policy,
Czechoslovakia may agree to decrease its demand for strategic
goods and to import more raw iron and steel and consumer goods
from Austria. Austrian firms have attempted to increase their
exports to the Orbit of some of these latter items, which are too
high-priced to sell readily in Western markets. Czech intransigence
on these points caused the negotiations preceding the current agree-
ment to drag on for more than half a year.
FAR EAST
3. Indian official says NNRC may hold Korean POW's indefinitely:
Ambassador Chakravarty, India's
ranking adviser on the Neutral Nations
Repatriation Commission, told
Ambassador Dean on 1 November
that the NNRC must continue to hold
nonrepatriated prisoners if the political conference has not yet
convened by 23 January, the date on which it is scheduled to
have completed debate on the prisoner question.
Comment: Under the truce terms, the
conference is supposed to consider the prisoner question from
approximately 25 December to 23 January, with the NNRC re-
taining custody of the prisoners. In the following 30 days the
NNRC is to declare the prisoners released from prisoner to
civilian status and assist them to go to neutral nations, following
which the commission is to dissolve itself.
American officials are already on
record as saying the prisoners must be released on 23 January
whether or not the conference has discussed the problem. This
date virtually coincides with the end of the 90-day period in
which Rhee has promised not to obstruct the truce.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. French operation in south Tonkin fails to bring strong Viet Minh
reaction:
The French have been disappointed in the
Viet Minh reaction to their operation in
outhern Tonkin, according to the American
army attache in Saigon. He believes the
French re not occupying terrain really critical to the Viet Minh,
and that the latter are unlikely to attack them in the heavily entrenched
defensive positions they have set up.
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He reports that of two enemy divisions against
which the operation was directed, one is continuing to infiltrate the delta
and the other is continuing its training program.
Comment: Contrary to press reports, the
French operation is believed to have had little effect on the Viet Minh's
offensive capabilities. The army attache previously described current
French tactics of building a strong defensive position and hoping for
an enemy attack as reminiscent of the tactics of Navarre's defense-
minded predecessor, General Salan.
6. Burma blames Nehru for its rice surplus:
In a further conversation with Ambassador
Sebald regarding the disposal of Burma's
rice surplus, cabinet minister Kyaw Nyein
stated that India's failure to purchase
600,000 tons of rice, set aside at Nehru's personal request at the
expense of other traditional buyers, had caused bitter feeling in
the Burmese cabinet. He stated that Oats rice forms a large part
of the present surplus.
Kyaw Nyein indicated that one of the
attractions of a Chinese Communist offer to buy Burmese rice
was that it provided an opportunity to break Burma's dependence
on India. He implied, moreover, that he could delay a final
agreement with Peiping for only about 20 days.
Comment: This is the first sign of
official Burmese bitterness toward India since the two countries
became independent. Although there are potential sources of
serious friction in Indo-Burmese relations, the two governments
have heretofore maintained close relations.
There is no evidence that Sino-Burmese
trade negotlations are beyond the exploratory stage.
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SOUTH ASIA
7. Communists are well entrenched in Kashmiri government:
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2)
Comment: 3.3(h)(2)
loyalty to former prime minister Sheikh Abdullah may have led 3.3(h)(2)
to exaggerate the situation. Nevertheless, this information agrees
with previous indications that considerable pro-Abdullah feeling still
exists in Kashmir and that Communist elements in the government
were not affected by the change which took place on 9 August. India's
long-range ability to control the state through Bakshi, its choice as
Abdullah's successor, is therefore open to question.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Israeli prime minister expected to resign by 20 November:
Israeli prime minister Ben-Gurion will
resign by 20 November and be succeeded
by Levi Eshkol, raldiStar of ftnan-:el a4:-
cording to Dr. Nahum Goldmann, prominent
an now v siting Israel. He told American charge Russell
in Tel Aviv that Ben-Gurion would continue to hold his membership in
the Knesset and that after a year or two he might resume the premier-
ship.
Comment: The long-rumored resigna-
tion of Ben-Gurion will probably result in considerable political
maneuvering, even though Eshkol is an experienced administrator
who has been groomed for the job.
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The prime minister's scheduled resig-
nation suggests that the government believes that it has the crisis
raised by the Kibya incident in hand. Lacking the firm influence of
Ben-Gurion, Israel's relations with the Arab states might further
deteriorate,
EASTERN EUROPE
9. East German forces alerted in Berlin area:
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East German police and military forces
were placed on an alert in the Hennigsdorf
area near Berlin on 30 October, and
East German security forces took up posi-
tions on a 35-mile arc extending from
Bernau to Nauen north of Berlin.
these actions were possibly related to an
East German radio announcement of
31 October that ringleaders of the June
riots had been arrested and weapons seized
in Berlin, Halle, Cottbus, Potsdam and other localities.
Comment: This is the first instance of an
East German or Soviet troop alert since the June riots. At that time,
strikes and demonstrations occurred in the Hennigsdorf steel mills.
It is not believed that this alert is related
to reported partisan activities near Cottbus. The area of alert is
north of Berlin instead of south, from which direction the Cottbus
partisans would have been attempting to reach Berlin.
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WESTERN EUROPE
10. Pella reduces Italian conditions for attending five-power Trieste
conference:
In reply to French foreign minister BidaulttE.3.3(h)(2)
query on 31 October as to how much of the
8 October declaration on Trieste must be
implemented before Italy would agree to a
five-power conference, Italian premier Pella "hazarded a personal
guess" that transfer to Italy of authority over the harbor and police
force of Trieste would be sufficient.
According to a French Foreign Ministry
spokesman, Pella stated that the conference should not be held too
soon. He added that if transfer of the civil administration of Zone A
proceeded smoothly and without delays, the problem of military trans-
fer might not arise.
Comment: This is the first time Pella has
retreated from his earlier insistence that Italy must have a "position.
of parity" with Yugoslavia before attending a five-power conference on
Trieste.
The transfer to Italy of authority over even
the harbor and police of Trieste would probably be regarded by
Yugoslavia as sufficient grounds for refusing to attend a five-power
conference.
11.. Denmark may compromise on manning of NATO air bases:
The American embassy in Copenhagen sees
no hope at present of agreement on the
permanent stationing of foreign personnel
at air bases in Denmark, but believes that
the new Social Democratic government might
agree to a "rotation plan" if one were pre-
sented as a concession.
The embassy suggests that the US make a
"last offer" along these lines before reporting final failure to NATO.
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Comment: The "rotation" plan would
allow the United States to send air units to Denmark in peace time,
ostensibly on maneuvers, and to bring them up to full strength in
time of war or when the domestic political situation permits.
The Social Democratic Party declared its
opposition to the manning of NATO bases by American personnel in
June, largely as an election maneuver, allowing for a future reversal
of policy.
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