CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/11/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020908
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 7, 1953

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE tN CLASS.
C.) DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. "90 0_9
AUTHt HR 70-2
DATE :e_WW7_79 REV!EWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
% India reportedly decides against American position on prisoner
release (page 3).
2. Soviet note reaffirms position on Korean conference (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. President Quirino may declare martial law in Philippines (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Satellite industrial growth declines sharply (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
Comment on Trieste disorders (page 5).
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SECURITY INFOR
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GENERAL
1. India reportedly decides against American position on prisoner
release:
The Indian government has decided to
interpret the Korean armistice agree-
ment as requiring the Neutral Nations
Repatriation Commission to hold a full
90-day explanation period and to retain custody of the prisoners
until 30 days after the political conference meets. According to
the Swiss minister in New Delhi, who conveyed this information,
the Indian argument is based on the "humanitarian grounds" that
prisoners who desire to be sent to some country other than For-
mosa or South Korea would be denied that right if the conference
did not meet.
Ambassador Allen comments that Nehru
may have taken this position to exert pressure on the United States
to accept Peiping's terms for holding the conference.
Comment: Since interpretation of the
POW agreement rests with the NNRC Commission, India's atti-
tude could result in indefinite confinement of the prisoners. There
is no indication that any of them would reject Formosa or South
Korea as their final destination.
Any attempt to extend the explanation or
detention period is likely to provoke violent reactions from the pris-
oners and from the South Korean government. President Rhee has
already said that since India is violating the terms of the armistice,
South Korea is free to take any action it desires to protect the pris-
oners.
2. Soviet note reaffirms position on Korean conference:
The 3 November Soviet note did not
essentially change the already defined Communist position on a
Korean political conference. It made more explicit Moscow's
claim that the West's exclusion of neutral countries "makes the
participation of the USSR in the conference impossible."
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SECURITY INFOR
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The note provided additional evidence
that the Communists will persist in their rejection of the United
Nations recommendations on the composition of the conference.
It strongly suggested a desire to avoid substantive negotiations
for a Korean settlement at this time,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Comment: The Philippine constitution
requires that the election results be confirmed by the Senate, which
will meet for this purpose on 8 December. It has been reported
previously that the administration might arrest several Nacionalista
members in order to secure control.
In September, it was reported that
Quirino had offered the defense post to Castaneda, who was re-
lieved as chief of staff shortly after Magsaysay became defense
secretary in 1950.
EASTERN EUROPE
4, Satellite industrial growth declines sharply:
Official reports published by the major
Satellites during the last week show that their rate of industrial
growth declined sharply this year. In Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
Rumania, and East Germany the rate dropped from approximately
24 percent in 1952 to 12 percent in 1953, while in Poland it declined
from 21 to 18 percent..
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Heretofore the announced rate of
industrial growth of the Satellites has been approximately double
that of the USSR. However, the decline in rate of growth and the
downward revision of Satellite industrial goals since June indi-
cate that Satellite industrialization is now proceeding at about
the same rate as announced for the Soviet Union. The greater
availability of consumer goods called for by revised Satellite
plans is partly designed to increase the workers' incentives
and so to correct the decline in industrial productivity.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Comment on Trieste disorders:
Premier Pella's formal protest to
the United States and Britain against the shooting of Italian students
in Treste strongly suggests that his government is interested in
keeping the situation stirred up and intends to make political
capital of the riots.
Pella probably considers that his chances
of remaining in office will be improved if he can exploit disturbances
to force early implementation of the 8 October decision or at least
the introduction of Italian police into Zone A.
The riots will certainly result in a harden-
ing of the Yugoslav attitude. Belgrade can now be expected flatly to
refuse to attend a five-power conference if Italy receives any addi-
tional authority in Zone A prior to or concomitant with a conference.
The Yugoslav press has already noted the failure of the Western-
controlled police to maintain order, and is emphasizing that further
grants of power to Italy in Zone A will create an impossible situation.
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