CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/12/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003765
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: December 19, 1953

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December 1953
Copy No. f4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
LI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20129
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: ZEAVAIM REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Burmese ambassador believes USSR seeks more trade with
Southeast Asia (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Beria case (page 3
3.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Chinese Communist military training mission reportedly in Laos
(page 5).
5. Indonesian army commanders expected to present ultimatum to
government (page 5).
6. Indonesians are disturbed at Magsaysay's possible emergence as
Southeast Asian leader (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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7. Iranian officials reject regional defense pact until army strengthened
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Britain and France seen unwilling to offer Austria security
guarantee (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Brazil desires close consultation with United States on Inter-
American Conference (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Burmese ambassador believes USSR seeks more trade with Southeast
Asia:
The Burmese ambassador to Moscow on his
return to Rangoon told the British ambassa-
dor there that the Soviet Union would like to
"move into the Southeast Asia market." He
believes the USSR can supply Burma with capital goods and is prepared
to buy Burmese rice.
The Soviet Union has shown increased willing-
ness to buy agricultural products and has made attractive offers of capi-
tal goods and machinery, apparently as part of its efforts to expand com-
mercial ties and political influence in several underdeveloped countries.
The lavish Soviet exhibit at the recently concluded Bangkok Constitution
Fair and the conclusion of a five-year trade agreement with India on 2
December are further indications of growing Communist interest in the
economic penetration of this area.
SOVIET UNION
2. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Berta case:
Ambassador Bohlen foresees a secret trial
for Berta in the near future with sentence
and execution following without delay. In
his opinion, the manner in which the charges
are presented and the fact that the accused are to be tried under the law
of 1 December 1934 suggest that the Kremlin wishes to dispose of the
Beria case without the internal agitation and the unfavorable foreign
reaction which would accompany a widely publicized purge trial.
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Bohlen interprets the Berta case as part
of an attempt to subordinate the MVD to the control of the top party
leadership. This is a task "of considerable delicacy and even danger,"
since there is no intention of destroying the absolute authority of the
police over the Soviet population.
In addition, the national background of the
majority of the defendants suggests an attempt to reduce or eliminate
the specially privileged position to which the Georgians had risen under
Stalin's rule.
Comment: Under Stalin the secret police,
like all Soviet institutions, was subordinate to his personal control.
It was also subordinate, however, to party control through an intricate
system of checks, particularly on personnel appointments maintained
by the party central committee. After Stalin's death Beria was appar-
ently attempting to by-pass these checks and develop the MVD as an
organization of personal power.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Chinese Communist military training mission reportedly in Laos:
About 70 or 80 Chinese Communist offi-
cers were acting as military advisers in
Sam Neua� northern Laos, in mid-October,
The Chinese officers werein-
structing both "Free Laos" and Viet Minh soldiers.
The strength of the "Free Laotians"
in Sam Neua totaled 300 at that time. The Laotian soldiers were
said to be uncooperative with the Viet Minh and there were many
desertions.
Comment:
a 40-man Chinese training mission
was active in November in the Luang Prabang area of Laos.
The so-called "Free Laos forces," under
Viet Minh direction, pose a security problem for the Laotian govern-
ment. The success of accelerated Viet Minh efforts to build up this
force since the invasion last spring has not been determined.
5. Indonesian army commanders expected to present ultimatum to
government:
The American charg�n Djakarta has been
reliably informed that four Indonesian army
territorial commanders are meeting in
Bandung to prepare a demand "tantamount
to an ultimatum" that the defense minister be removed. According to
the demand, the government must take some action by 20 December.
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Comment: The four territorial commanders
opposed to the pro-Communist defense minister are those in West and
Central Java, North Sumatra, and Borneo. They have become progres-
sively more alarmed over his moves to decrease the influence of moderate
and anti-Communist officers and to concentrate responsibility for defense
matters in his own hands.
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The disaffected commanders may feel that
they must act before parliament passes the recently introduced national
defense act, which would legalize the defense minister's actions. They
are, however, severely handicapped by a lack of active political support
from the leaders of the parliamentary opposition parties.
6. Indonesians are disturbed at Magsaysars possible emergence as
Southeast Asian leader:
Indonesian officials are disturbed over
speeches by Carlos Romulo, the former
Philippine ambassador to the United States,
which have depicted Ramon Magsaysay as
the future leader of the Southeast Asian countries,
They feel that such a boom is "pre -
sumptuous." The Indonesians are also concerned over Vice President
Nixon's reference, while in the Philippines, to Magsaysay as a "leader.
in Southeast Asia."
Comment: The Indonesians are sensitive
to implications that any foreigner can speak in their behalf. They have
also reacted negatively in the past to any suggestion that Southeast Asia
is a political or economic entity.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian officials reject regional defense pact until army Strengthened:
Ambassador Henderson reports that the
shah, during his conversation with Vice
President Nixon, emphasized that the United
States must decide soon whether Iran's army
is to be for defense of Iran or for internal security only.
The shah believes that if the army is used
only for police purposes, the morale of his country will suffer and Iran
will be less able to resist Soviet political and military pressure. The
shah added that it would be useless to discuss regional military coopera-
tion so long as Iran does not have an army capable of defensive action.
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In subsequent conversations with
Henderson, Prime Minister Zahedi and Foreign Minister Entezam
indicated agreement with the shah. Entezam was worried, however,
that the shah may have unintentionally implied that Iran is prepared
now to go further than it really can.
He added that the less said about Iranian
participation in a mutual defense pact the better, and that he hoped
there would be a minimum of publicity in the United States if the latter
decided to increase military aid to Iran.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Britain and France seen unwilling to offer Austria security guarantee:
British and French representatives at the 3.3(h)(2)
tripartite discussions in Paris on the German
and Austrian questions doubt the advisability
of an Allied declaration on future Austrian
security. American representatives have the impression that neither
Britain nor France would go to the assistance of Austria should its
independence be threatened after the conclusion of a peace treaty.
Comment: The United States had hoped
that Britain and France would join in a tripartite declaration concerning
Austria's political and territorial integrity to be issued when troops are
withdrawn from Austria. Such a declaration would be accompanied by
an Austrian commitment to maintain adequate internal security forces
and to cooperate with the West in the event of war.
If the Austrians become aware of this atti-
tude on the part of France and Britain, neutrality sentiment, which has
increased during the past year, may be encouraged.
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LATIN AMERICA
9. Brazil desires close consultation with United States on Inter-American
Conference:
Detailed consultation between the United 3.3(h)(2)
States and Brazil on the agenda of the March
Inter-American Conference has been made
more important by Argentine attempts to form
a voting bloc, according to Brazilian foreign
minister Rao. In a talk with United States ambassador Kemper on 15
December, Rao proposed that consultation begin immediately after a
Scheduled January caucus of Brazilian diplomats.
Comment: Brazil is eager to assume the
leading role at the conference. It has expressed special interest in the
economic items of the agenda, which are the most likely to be trouble-
some to the United States.
The allegation that Argentina is attempting
to form a voting bloc may be based on Argentine foreign minister
Remorino's current tour of several Latin American countries and his
efforts to get them to sign the loosely worded economic agreement
known as the Act of Santiago. There is no evidence that Argentina is
attempting to gain backing for specific proposals.
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