CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/10/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02869426
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: October 9, 1953

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 24- 2_7
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
[:1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE � POO9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 2/7-,9_. REVIEWER
3.5(c)
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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9 October 1953
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Orbit economic council reduces price of timber sold to the West
(page 3).
�FAR EAST
. Large influx of Chinese Communist troops into North Korea
reported (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Viet Minh military communications increasing (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Soviet embassy reportedly urges Kashani to reorganize Iranian
National Front (page 4).
5. Turkish radar tracks overflights of unidentified aircraft from
Bulgaria (page 5).
Vic Britain emphasizes additional requirements for Suez agreement
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7., French suspect secret Turkish-American agreement (page 6).
�ft Reactions to the Anglo-American announcement on Trieste (page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
1. Orbit economic council reduces price of timber sold to the West:
3.
Comment: Previous reluctance by
Orbit countries to lower the prices of their raw material exports
In face of declining world commodity prices has hampered their
policy of promoting trade with the West. The reduction in price
of one important export commodity, together with recent reports
of Soviet grain and petroleum offers at reduced prices, foreshadows
a greater degree of success in the Orbit's effort to fulfill increased
requirements of consumer and industrial goods by an expansion of
East-West trade.
FAR EAST
2. Large influx of Chinese Communist troops into North Korea reported:
3(h)(2)
33(h)(2)
approximately 60,000
Chinese troops entered Korea in a four-
y per o uring September through the Manpojin port of entry on
the Yalu River.
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Comment: Three Chinese �oinmunist
armies, approximately 115,000 men, havi3.3(h)(2)
returned to China from Korea, probanyjistyeIoreTheYnTstice
was signed. These 60,000 troops may be part of their replacements,
although technically this movement is in violation of the armistice
agreement. The agreement states that only 35,000 troops can be
rotated into Korea by either side on a man-for-man basis in any
one calendar month.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh military communications increasing:
3.3(h)
Comment: If the Viet Minh directs its
primary operations against the Tonkin delta this fall, it is possible
that the campaign will build up gradually from the present level of
fighting without a sudden commitment to battle of large Viet Minh
forces.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Soviet embassy reportedly urges Kashani to reorganize Iranian
National Front:
(2)
3.3(h)(2)
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Comment: A reorganization of the
National Front under the perm�ITO�we ICashani would appeal pri-
marily to the ultranationalists, and could develop into a serious
threat to Prime Minister Zahedi, The National Front would prob-
ably spearhead opposition to an oil settlement with Britain as well
as attack many domestic policies. Kashani has never announced
support of Zahedi, and he reportedly retired from political life
following the new regime's assumption of power.
The mullah would probably take aid from
any source, although previous reports that he had accepted money
from both Britain and the Soviet Union have not been confirmed.
5. Turkish radar tracks overflights of unidentified aircraft from
Bulgaria:
Two unidentified aircraft on 28 September
and four unidentified aircraft on 2 October
crossed the Bulgarian border and penetrated
nearly 20 miles into Turkey, 3.3(h)(2)
intruders.
Four Turkish fighters are standing by to intercept future
Comment: This report is the first avail-
able evidence of unauthorized planes flying over Turkey from Bulgaria.
6. Britain emphasizes additional requirements for Suez agreement:
The British Foreign Office considers that
provisions for the automatic availability
of the Suez base in event of war and for
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British air force staging fields are the two crucial points still at issue
In the Anglo-Egyptian talks.
Other unresolved issues include the
time when the evacuation of British troops is to start, the ques-
tion of uniforms for the British technicians, and the number of
technicians to remain during the final phase of the agreement.
Britain also considers that the British assistant to the Egyptian
base commander must be able to give orders to the technicians.
The cabinet insists that the agreement
specifically mention freedom of transit of the canal, in order to
ensure parliamentary approval.
Comment: This suggests that the
negotiations will be protraFaTIS date there has been little
discussion of such technical points as the staging fields and the
authority to be exercised by the British assistant to the base
commander.
Ambassador Caffery in Cairo states
that Egypt was so close to breaking off the negotiations on 7 October
that Vice Premier Nasr had already informed the Egyptian ambassador
In Washington that the rupture would occur that day and had instructed
Cairo editors in the line they were to follow. At Caffery's urging, the
plan was changed.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. French suspect secret Turkish-American agreement:
Statements made by French premier
Laniel and Foreign Minister Bidault
on 3 October in Ankara led Turkish
officials to believe that their visitors
were trying to determine whether there were any Turkish-American
understandings outside of the NATO framework.
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\ the French complained that the NATO countries were not
equally trusted or sufficiently informed on the development of secret
weapons by certain NATO members. They reportedly proposed with-
out success that they and the Turks agree to exchange any information
they obtain on such secret weapon development.
Comment: This is further evidence of
sensitivity over France's subordinate role in NATO matters in rela-
tion to Britain and the United States. General Juin has publicly ex-
pressed his dissatisfaction over the lack of adequate atomic weapons
information.
The Turkish government's refusal to
commit itself to Bidault and Laniel offers further confirmation of
its determination to avoid compromising its relations with the
United States.
8. Reactions to the Anglo-American announcement on Trieste:
3.3(h)(2)
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The bitter Yugoslav reaction to the American-
British announcement on Trieste is highlighted by the threat to bring the
affair before the United Nations. This threat is indicative of the serious-
ness with which the Yugoslays view this move; at the same time it sug-
gests that they intend to protect their interests by diplomatic measures
rather than by military force. Every practical means, however, includ-
ing troop movements, is likely to be used to intimidate the Western
powers in plans to carry out their proposal.
Tito may go so far as to threaten to intervene
militarily in Zone A, under the terms of the Italian Peace Treaty, if
Italian troops are brought in. It is unlikely, however, that he would
carry out this threat.
Yugoslav relations with the West will be
temporarily exacerbated, but no rapprochement with the Soviet Union
is to be anticipated as a result.
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In Italy, the reaction of the government-
controlled radio suggests that the government is interpreting the
American-British announcement as a victory for the policies of
Premier Pella, Though the proposal falls short of Pella's latest
public demand for a plebiscite in the entire free territory and has
provoked some hostile Italian demonstrations in Trieste, it is
actually in line with what Italian leaders have privately urged.
It will probably prolong the tenure of the Pella government and
help halt the recent deterioration in official [tab-American rela-
tions. In any case, Italian parliamentary leaders have lost a major
excuse for delay in ratifying EDC.
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