CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/11/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003744
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 21, 1953

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SECURI � FORMATION
21 November
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 60
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
n DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS 8 C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: ./�-e) 0 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 80//2/7:9 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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1953
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. Military capabilities of North Korea seen superior to South Korea's
(page 3).
2. Sakhalin crude oil deliveries to Manchuria increasing (page 3).
3. Chinese Communist bombers arrive at Canton in South China
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Navarre foresees defensive war in Indochina until next summer
(page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Comment on first Afghan reaction to reports of US-Pakistani
military aid pact (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Libya seeks financial aid and treaty from Turkey (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Finnish foreign minister disturbed by public disclosure of Soviet
offers of assistance (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8.
(page ().
9. French Communists press advantages against government (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Military capabilities of North Korea seen superior to South Korea's:
A study by the Far East Command concludes 3.3(h)(2)
that in the event of a renewed conflict between
North and South Korea, and in the absence of
foreign forces and overt logistical support,
the so th would ultimately be defeated. Although South Korea could with-
stand an offensive for a short period, the FEC believes that North Korean
air superiority and long-range covert logistical support would be decisive.
The study notes that while the South Korean
army has more manpower, it has a higher proportion of support per-
sonnel and lacks armor and antiaircraft artillery. The south's superi-
ority in artillery would be counterbalanced by the north's superiority in
mortars, tanks and self-propelled guns. Removal of the UN air threat
would also permit the north to use its antiaircraft artillery units in a
ground role.
2. Sakhalin crude oil deliveries to Manchuria increasing:
Comment: Total 1953 shipments from
Sakhalin have been at least 200,000 tons, far more than in previous
years and about one fifth of all Chinese imports of oil products.
Several Manchurian refineries with a com-
bined annual capacity of more than 300,000 tons were built by the
Japanese to process imported crude oil. The use of these refineries
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suggests that production of crude oil on Sakhalin may be rising beyond
the level that can be processed by the two refineries in the Soviet Far
East.
3. Chinese Communist bombers arrive at Canton in South China:
Comment: This is the first good evidence
of the presence of bombers-Iii-g"aith China. MIG-15 jet fighters of the
18th Division at Canton are the only other military aircraft known to be
based in the area.
It is typical Chinese Communist air force pro-
cedure, prior to mass movements of tactical units, to transfer small
numbers of the units' aircraft to the new base. The entire 20th Division
and the 1st Independent Regiment may thus soon be moved to South China,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Navarre foresees defensive war in Indochina until next summer:
General Navarre told Senator H. Alexander
Smith on 19 November that he must fight
an essentially defensive war until next sum-
mer, at which time he expects to be strong
enough o engage e iet Minh in decisive battle. In the meantime he
will be able to carry out tactical offensives and clean-up operations
inside the Tonkin delta.
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Navarre hopes to defeat the enemy's
regular forces decisively by the spring of 1955, leaving only a
guerrilla problem that can be handled by the Vietnamese army.
He emphasized the problem of instilling in these troops a really
warlike spirit.
Comment: This more moderate esti-
mate of French capabilities is somewhat at variance with Navarre's
presentation to an American group last summer.
Navarre's plans are based to a considerable
degree on the build-up of an effective Vietnamese national army.
While newly formed light battalions are being activated approximately
on schedule, several of those that have seen action have made a very
poor showing.
SOUTH ASIA
5. Comment on first Afghan reaction to reports of US-Pakistani military
aid pact:
The first Afghan reaction to reports of a
possible military aid pact between Pakistan and the United States is
critical. The Kabul newspaper Anis, which is published by the govern-
ment press department and presumably reflects official Afghan opinion,
foresees that any such alliance will lead to World War III.
Like India, Afghanistan opposes any increase
in Pakistan's military strength which would make Karachi less suscepti-
ble to pressures such as the Pushtoonistan campaign for the independence
of Pakistani tribal areas. The threat of World War III probably looms
less large in the Afghan mind than in the Indian, though it makes a con-
venient talking point.
Despite its opposition, Afghanistan is un-
likely to make any move that would mater iallv alter its relations either
with Pakistan or the United States,
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Libya seeks financial aid and treaty from Turkey:
Comment: Libya in its desire to lessen
its present dependence on the Wester 'powers has sought aid from
Turkey and advice from the Arabs.
Although there is no evidence that Turkey
has decided its position in this matter, Ankara's policy is to assert
positive leadership in the eastern Mediterranean.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Finnish foreign minister disturbed by public disclosure of Soviet
offers of assistance:
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Finnish foreign minister Torngren con- 3.3(h)(2)
siders ex-premier Keldwnen's public dis-
closure of Soviet offers during his term of
office an "incredible development." Torngren
ears that it may bring�ut considerable unrest among the almost
half-million displaced Karelians in Finland.
Torngren told the American minister that
his personal knowledge of the matter was limited to one discussion
in which Soviet minister Lebedev vaguely referred to a possible loan
to Finland and the possible use by Finland of the Saimaa Canal, which
is in that Part of Karelia lost to the USSR during World War II.
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s.
The American minister in Helsinki believes
that the disclosure, which Kekkonen probably made in order to estab-
lish himself as the only leader who can ensure continuation of good rela-
tions with the USSR, may boomerang.
Comment If the Soviet Union, which has
been highly critical of the new Finnish government, fails to carry out
these offers, the disclosure will seriously embarrass the new government.
The displaced Karelians may be encouraged to agitate for the return to
Finland of parts of their former homeland lost to the USSR in World War IL
WESTERN EUROPE
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9. French Communists press advantages against government:
The French Communist Party is attempting 3.3(h)(2)
to force the government to drop legal proceed-
ings against Benoit Frachon and other Com-
munist leaders for whom warrants have been
issued but not yet served.
The American embassy in Paris, noting the
considerable publicity given Frachon's recent attendance at a labor meet-
ing, believes that the Communists hope to make the government's anti-
Communist campaign look still more ineffectual.
Comment: The recent vote in the National
Assembly not to lift the immunity of Communist members showed the
extent to which the Communist Party has improved its position in the
assembly in recent months, partly because other deputies were aligned
with it in opposition to the EDC and on the Indochina question.
Communist leaders are probably eager to
exploit this advantage both to create dissension in parliament prior to
next month's presidential election and to show labor that the present
government can be flouted with impunity.
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