CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/10/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02970156
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: October 17, 1953

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INFORMATION
17 October 1953
3.5(c)
Copy No. It;
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO -71
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
O DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2(209
AUTH. HR 70-2
DATE:eV/2/7'9 REVIEWERF
Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECU INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
SOVIET UNION
2. Large-scale air defense exercise noted in southern Kamchatka
area (page 3).
3. Soviet Union offers special blends of motor gasoline for export
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
tif Comment on resolution passed by Vietnam "National Congress"
(page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Britain concerned over proposed American military grant to
Pakistan (page 5).
0/ , Pella disturbed over parliamentary reaction to Trieste situation
(page 6).
8. Danes affirm intention to deliver tanker to USSR (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Comment on Israeli reprisal raid on Iorclanian village (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
17 Oct 53
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1.
GENERAL
SOVIET UNION
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2. ' Large-scale air defense exercise noted in southern Kamchatka area:
T 0y, SE'
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(2)
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Comment: The nature of this exercise indicates
that it may have been designed to simulate an American attack against
the key naval and air base at Petropavlovsk on the outer Soviet Far
Eastern perimeter, the closest strategic target to advanced US bases
In Alaska and the Aleutians.
The proficiency displayed in this exercise reflects
the build-up of Soviet early warning and intercept capabilities in the
Kamchatka area, which has included the equipping of two fighter regi-
ments with jets within the past year.
3. Soviet Union offers special blends of motor gasoline for export:
During the past six months the Soviet Union 3.3(h)(2)
has offered to sell non-Orbit countries motor
gasoline of higher octane than it manufactures
for its own use. The specifications of the gaso-
line have varied with each offer to meet local market conditions. Offers
of special blends, even in limited quantities, show a serious Soviet in-
tent to enter a new export market.
Comment:
there was at least a temporary shortage ot petroleum
in the USSR and a resultant decrease of allocations to the internal So-
viet economy. Most gasoline sold for public consumption in the Soviet
Union varies from 60 to 66 octane; in the United States it is approxi-
mately 85 to 90 octane.
3.3(h)(2)
Over-all Soviet bloc petroleum exports, largely
fuel oil, amounted to roughly two million metric tons in 1952 and have
been increasing considerably this year. Soviet export prices have
generally been at the world market level or slightly below.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Comment on resolution passed by Vietnam :National Congress's:
The resolution of the Vietnamese "National
Congreserejecting participation in the French Union while approving
an alliance with France for a period to be determined by Vietnam
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may push Bao Dai into an uncompromising: position similar to that
of the king of Cambodia.
The congress is an ad hoc body called by
Bao Dai to designate a list of persons from which he would select
advisers for forthcoming negotiations with the French. Rs resolu-
tion has no legal force and goes beyond the congress' severely
limited terms of reference.
If Bao Dai supports the resolution, there is
a prospect of increasingly bitter relations between his government
and France. His position in Vietnam relative to his political rivals,
however, is such that he can scarcely repudiate such a strong and
authoritative expression of Vietnamese nationalism.
SOUTH ASIA.
5. Britain concerned over proposed American military grant to Pakistan:
r.ccording to the American embassy in Londor3.3(h)(2)
he British government is very concerned over
he American proposal to grant military aid
o Pakistan, and would probably be reluctant
to use its good offices to mitigate any Indian reaction.
The embassy reports that a Commonwealth
Relations Office paper on the subject states that the Indian reaction
will probably be sharp and that the proposal is awwardly timed in
relation to both Kashmiri and Korean developments.
Comment: Britain has sought to avoid even
the appearance of favoritism or preference in giving military assistance
to India and Pakistan, for fear of further complicating intra-Common-
wealth relations.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Comment on Israeli reprisal raid on Jordanian village:
The Israeli attack on a Jordanian village on
14 October is provoking unusually strong local reactions but is not
likely to lead to new Arab-Israeli hostilities. Jordanians have been
so angered that the foreign minister told the American charge in
Amman that the Western powers must "do something drastic" to
forestall panic.
This attack and other recent unprovoked
Israeli actions make peace settlements impossible in the foreseeable
future. This situation, in the opinion of the charge in Amman, pre-
cludes any Israeli-Jordanian agreement to discuss ,the water-develop-
ment project as envisaged by Eric Johnston's mission which is en route
to the Near East.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Pella disturbed over parliamentary reaction to Trieste situation:
Discussing the Trieste question with,AmbasE3 3(h)(2)
Luce on 16 October, Italian premier ' Pella ex-
pressed concern over the parliamentary and
public reaction to the current tripartite con-
ference, in London. Pella predicted a govern-
ment crisis in Rome if there were any announce-
ment or impression from London that the 8
October plan had been abandoned in whole or
in part or was in effect plain partition.
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Pella stated that any indication that his govern-
ment had accepted a de facto Zone A - Zone B solution would cause its
downfall. He added that if Tito was not bluffing in his threats, Italy
"would defend itself."
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Meanwhile, however, the American army attache
in Rome reports that the Italians are less tense and have made fewer
military preparations in the Trieste border area than they did in early
September. L no reserves have 3.3(h)(2)
been recalled, and leaves have not been cancelled.
Comment: The Trieste question will almost
certainly be raised when Pella addresses the Senate on 19 October,
closing the debate on the foreign affairs budget.
'7. Danes affirm intention to deliver tan ker to USSR:
Danish foreign minister Hansen on 15 October 3.3(h)(2)
handed Ambassador Coe a note affirming that
the tanker constructed for the USSR will be
delivered on 21 October. The note stated that
delivery was necessary in order to avoid political friction or possible
interruption of Denmark's vital trade with the Soviet bloc. It expressed
the hope that Washington would weigh these factors and grant exception
to the Battle Act as in the case of the first tanker.
Comment: This 13,000-ton tanker is the second
of the two contracted for in :1948 for delivery before the end of
1953,.Although COCOM controls prohibit the sale of tankers to the
Orbit, the Danes claim exemption from this limitation on the grounds
of their prior commitment.
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