CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/09/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02869416
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: September 26, 1953

Approved for Release: 2019/07/10 CO2869416
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 13'
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. P009
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: .1.2/12/T1 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SJ3RET
SECURLY1FORMAT1ON
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SECURITY INFORMATION
3.5(c)
SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. Japanese constitutional revision to permit rearmament may
require three years (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Iranian prime minister reportedly now plans Majlis elections
in snring tnnirp ql
3.
1,11/ Anglo-Egyptian negotiations encounter new difficulties (page 4).
5. Libyan prime minister's resignation threatens US base negotiations
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. USSR hints at extensive release of buildings in Austria (page 6).
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3.3(h)(2)
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3.5(c)
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SECURITY INFORMATION
3.5(c)
FAR EAST
1. Japanese constitutional revision to permit rearmament may
require three years:
Japanese defense officials believe that
a three-year public educational campaign
Is necessary before there would be a
reasonable chance of success for a pub-
lic referendum on the constitutional revision required for Japan's
rearmament. In presenting Japan's defense plan to American
authorities, the officials asserted that prior to such revision
Japan's ability to increase its defense forces is limited by the
lack of a legal basis for conscription and a reserve system.
The Japanese officials stated that a
coalition promising eventual merger of Japan's conservative
parties was also a prerequisite for a strong defense structure.
They were optimistic that such a merger might occur in the
near future.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: The proposed Japanese
five-year defense plan calling or an eventual 210,000-man ground
force, 140,000-ton navy and 1,400-plane air force sets goals which,
in the American view, are below the nation's capabilities. This may
represent a minimum bargaining position, however, and the Japanese
probably will be prepared to raise their goals in negotiating for Mutual
Security assistance.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Iranian prime minister reportedly now plans Majlis elections in
spring:
Prime Minister Zahedi does not intend to
reconvene the present Majlis, but will
wait four months until it legally expires
and then open a three-month campaign
in support of his own candidates for a new election
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SECURITY INFORM,
3.5(c)
3.
The prime minister expects to reconstitute
the Senate after a new Majlis has been elected.
Comment: If Zah di follows this nia
the necessary parliamentary
approval for foreign loans or for an oil settlement will be delayed
until late spring or early summer. The shah has opposed early
elections.
Failure to convene a Alajlis at an early
date will probably bring increasing protests and will probably help
to unify the opposition.
3.3(h)(2)
3.3
(h)(2)
4. Anglo-Egyptian negotiations encounter new difficulties:
Informal Anglo-Egyptian talks on the future
of the Suez base were suspended after the
23 September meeting because of Egyptian
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URITY INFORMATION
3.5(c)
refusal to permit British technicians
to wear uniforms on the base.
The Egyptians have sug;ested that the
British seek further instructions from London before resuming
talks. No date has been set for the next meeting.
General Robertson, the British military
delegate, has told Ambassador Caffery that the question of uniforms
Is a "sticking point," as it is an important factor in the control and
administration of British technicians. The American embassy in
London also reports that the Foreign .Office considers uniforms a
major issue on which it is unlikely to concede.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: In recent weeks the atmosphere
in Cairo has been generally tense. The British have clung tenaciously
to their basic position and the Egyptians have exhibited continuing sus-
picion and uncertainty. This suggests that other differences may appear
to delay a final agreement.
5. Libyan prime minister's resignation threatens US base negotiations:
Failure of Prime Minister Muntasser to
withdraw his resignation may result in a
serious setback to US base negotiations,
according to American minister Villard
in Tripoli. Muntasser is considered the only Libyan with authority
and familiarity with the base negotiations.
The prime minister, who is in Europe for
medical treatment, submitted his resignation on 19 September follow-
ing King Idriss' unconstitutional appointment of three cabinet members.
Muntasser has refused to reconsider his
resignation or to return to Libya to discuss the matter with the king.
Villard believes that the current crisis might be settled if Muntasser's
resignation were accepted and if he were then asked to form a new
government.
Villard reports, however, that it will be
difficult to find a stabilizing influence in the present crisis.
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RITY INFORMATION
3.5(c)
WESTERN EUROPE
6. USSR hints at extensive release of buildings in Austria:
Soviet high commissioner Richey told
Austrian foreign minister Gruber on
23 September that the Soviet authorities
were about to release to the Austrians
"a very large number of buildings." This was in answer to a
request for derequisition of a badly needed municipal building.
Gruber told the American ambassador he was uncertain whether
this remark had broader implications.
Comment: While a partial withdrawal
of Soviet troops from Austria remains a possibility, Ilichev re-
cently denied rumors that such a move was under way. It is
possible that the recent actions of the Soviet Union in assuming
all of its occupation costs and decreasing its supervision of
Austrian affairs have necessitated an administrative retrenchment.
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