CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/02/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020575
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: February 7, 1953

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7 February 1953
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Soviet Union demands Finland halt re-export of Soviet pro-
ducts (page 4).
SOVIET UNION
2. New-type MiG's widely distributed in USSR (page 4).
3. Soviet long range aircraft apparently in over-water bombing
practice (page 5).
FAR EAST
4. New Chinese armies reported in Korea apparently are replace-
ments (page 6).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Chinese Nationalist fighting government forces in northern
Burma (page 6).
SOUTH ASIA
6. Indian Government seeks appraisal of American intentions in
Far East (page 8).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Argentine-Iranian negotiations on oil appear near conclusion
(page 9).
8. Egypt interested in purchasing Portuguese arms (page 9).
9. Top Sudanese leader predicts disturbances if Cairo talks fail
(page 10).
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WESTERN EUROPE
10. French Premier insists on. Saar settlement as prerequisite
for German rearmament (page 11).
11. France protests proposed increase in West German border
police (page 11).
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11103 FiECRIET
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GENERAL
1. Soviet Union demands Finland halt re-export of Soviet products:
The prolonged Finnish-Soviet trade negotia-
tions have been further delayed by a Russian
demand that Finland cease re-exporting
Soviet products to the West, according to
US Legation in Helsinki. In recent months
000 tons of Soviet grain to Western Europe,
this practice in 1953 with grain, sugar and
a reliable source of the
Finland re-exported 60,
and intended to continue
other products.
3.3(h)(2)
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Comment: The primary purpose of this
demand is probably to tie the Finnish economy more closely to that
of the USSR. The firm attitude of the Soviet Union on this point
probably also indicates concern over possible competition and the
weakening of its bargaining position in trade negotiations with the
West.
During the past six months Finland has
been re-exporting Soviet grain in excess of its requirements to
Western Europe at a considerable loss in order to balance its
trade with the West.
SOVIET UNION
2. New-type MIG's widely distributed in USSR:
3.3(h)(2)
'the MIG-19, a new
version of the standard jet fighter, has been
distributed to units in widely separated
parts of the USSR, including the Far East.
3.3(h)(2)
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Comment: Since early 1952,
four out of the eight MIG
factories have been involved in production of a new-type MIG.
The appearance of this new model in the Far
East probably indicates quantity production. Heretofore, air units
In the Soviet Far East have been the last to receive new-type aircraft.
3. Soviet long range aircraft apparently in over-water bombing practice:
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3.3(h)(2)
on 5 September long range 3.3(h)(2)
aircraft subordinate to the 6th Bomber Corps,
and possibly naval fighters, participated in
an over-water bombing exercise in the
Estonian coastal area of the Baltic Sea. Tenuous evidence suggests
the use of airborne radar bombing equipment.
Comment: This is the first indication of
a joint over-water bombing exercise involving Soviet long range
aircraft and may reflect an expansion of the Long Range Air Force
mission.
The 6th Bomber Corps, which is equipped
with TU-4's, is probably subordinate to the Third Long Range Air
Army in the Soviet Far East, but has been stationed in the Estonian
and Leningrad areas since September 1951, under operational
control of the Long Range Flying Schools.
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FAR EAST
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4. New Chinese armies reported in Korea apparently are replacements: 3.3(h)(2)
three armies which
arrived in Korea in September and October
replaced veteran armies in the Chinese
command communications. network. The
relieved armies have apparently ceased communications, suggesting
that they may have left Korea.
Comment: This analysis suggests that
the recent identification of new army units in Korea represents a
major rotation rather than an over-all increase in strength.,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Chinese Nationalists fighting government forces in northern Burma: 3.3(h)(2)
Government forces are conducting operations
against 500 to 600 Chinese Nationalists in the
Namhkam area of northeastern Burma, accord-
ing to a cabinet minister (see map, page 7).
The government reportedly decided on a
s ow own a er a recent Nationalist attack and diverted troops to this
action from other operations in north Burma.
The Attache has received other information
that there has been a large build-up of Chinese Nationalist troops in
the Moulmein area of south Burma and that the Chinese have con-
structed a large airfield.
Comment: Chinese Nationalist activity
at two such widely separated points emphasizes the extent to which
the Chinese have dispersed from their former concentration in the
east-central state of Kengtung. The total Nationalist strength in
Burma is now estimated at only from 5,000 to 10,000 men.
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Recent reports from the American Embassy
in Rangoon indicate that official and public anxiety over the Nationalist
question, partially stimulated by the President's order to the Seventh
Fleet, is rapidly rising and that the government is seeking some
early solution.
The Communist insurgents are embarrassing
the government by again proposing a joint all-out campaign against the
Nationalists.
SOUTH ASIA.
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6. Indian Government seeks appraisal of American intentions in Far East: 3.3(h)(2)
an urgent appraisal
of President Eisenhower's revision of the Seventh Fleet's mission "in
the light of the apparent recent acceleration of American military
planning in the Far East."
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: India has long feared that the
West or the USSR would intentionally or unintentionally make some
move which would touch off World War III.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Argentine-Iranian negotiations on oil appear near conclusion:
The quotations are satisfactory to the
Argentine state petroleum agency since the price works out at
less than $1.10 per barrel f. o. b. Abadan.
Comment: Argentine contracts have
been awarded to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company and Shell Mex
at $1.60 per barrel f. o. b. Kuwait.
Sugar is an essential Iranian import
currently in short supply,
The proposed agreement would not only relieve this situation but
would probably also sustain Mossadeq's hope that further inde-
pendent oil agreements would enable Iran to get along without
a settlement with Britain.
8. Egypt interested in purchasing Portuguese arms:
The Egyptian Government is interested
in purchasing arms from Portugal and
a representative of the Portuguese
Ministry of National Defense has arrived
in Cairo to negotiate the sale,
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Comment: General Nagib has asked for
military equipment from the United States; nevertheless he continues
to seek alternate sources. Egypt
has recently been negotiating arms purchases with Sweden, Switzer-
land, Spain and Italy.
Portugal is currently standardizing its
military equipment and is reportedly interested in selling surplus
small arms stocks.
Britain, traditional supplier of military
equipment to Egypt, has been controlling arms shipments and has
indicated that it hopes to use them to obtain advantageous settlement
of the Anglo-Egyptian disputes.
9. Top Sudanese leader predicts disturbances if Cairo talks fail:
The Mandi, top Sudanese leader, has
informed the American Liaison Officer
in Khartoum that if no agreement is
reached between Egypt and Britain,
disturbances will take place simul-
taneously in Egypt and the Sudan,
The Mandi said he had learned that
the Governor General was planning to call Sudanese party leaders
together to consider elections and to decide the country's future.
He warned, however, that this approach "would not work" be-
cause of the agreement already reached between Egyptian and
Sudanese leaders.
It is not necessary, the Mandi stated,
for any Sudanese to participate in the Anglo-Egyptian talks in
Cairo because "Egypt is representing the Sudan."
Comment: The Mandi's statement
strengthens Egypt's position in the current talks with Britain
since Mirghani, the other important leader in Khartoum, has
already indicated his support for the agreement which Cairo
worked out with the Sudanese leaders.
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Despite the reported plan of the Governor
General to decide the country's future in consultation with Sudanese
leaders, the British Government is continuing to negotiate on the
subject with Nagib in Cairo.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French Premier insists on Saar settlement as prerequisite for German
rearmament:
French Premier Mayer told Secretary Dulles 3.3(h)(2)
on 2 February that the future economic status
of the Saar must be settled before the Euro-
pean Defense Commimity treaty goes into
effect.
He said that his government would do
everything possible to obtain ratification of the EDC treaty but that
In the event of failure, France would use its veto power to block
the creation of a German national army as a full partner in NATO.
If the veto were "overridden," France would destroy the usefulness
of any German national army by rendering ineffective the lines of
communication to the Atlantic.
Comment: Mayer's remarks on the Saar
in his investiture speech had been interpreted to mean that he would
be satisfied with an agreement on the principle of eventually Euro-
peanizing the territory. France and Germany are still diametrically
opposed on the maintenance of French economic control of the Saar
until Europeanization can be completed.
11. France protests proposed increase in West German border police:
The French Government is protesting
to Chancellor Adenauer the Federal
Republic's plan to increase its border
police from 10,000 to 20,000 men.
3.3(h)(2)
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The proposal, France feels, raises doubts as to Bonn's attitude
on the EDC provision limiting national police forces to those
necessary for internal order, and strengthens the fear that Bonn
is trying to reconstruct a national German army.
Comment: Although the capabilities of
the border police have occasionally been strained by kidnappings
and shootings along the interzonal frontier, the pressure for doub-
ling this force has come mainly from Interior Minister Lehr, who
is perhaps motivated by his desire to be influential in the formation
of German EDC contingents.
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