CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/05/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02901123
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: May 30, 1953

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INFORMATION
30 May
1953
Copy No.
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SEGWRITY INFORMATION
SUMMARY
GENERAL
ZChou En-lai opposed to transfer of prisoners to United Nations
(page 3).
ue French Foreign Ministry disapproves Western initiative on East-
West problems (page 3).
�21.# Soviet diplomat comments on East-West issues (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Possible Chinese Communist invasion of Tachen Islands indicated
(page 5).
5. Highest numbered Chinese Communist air division now believed to
be 31st (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Bao Dai plans ultimatum to French on Vietnam army build-up
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3.3(h)(2)
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Czechoslovakia opens first aluminum plant (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Preliminary Yugoslav-Italian talks on Trieste reportedly stalled
(page 8).
10. Rearmament issue reportedly threatens split. in West German Social
Democratic Party (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Chou En-lai opposed to transfer of prisoners to United Nations:
3.3(h)(2)
After a two-hour conversation with Chou En-lai
on 26 May, the Indian ambassador in Peiping
informed his British colleague that the Chinese
premier seemed genuinely interested in a peace-
ful solution but was "firmly opposed" to entrusting to the United Nations
the fate of prisoners who remain unwilling to be repatriated. Chou was
"obdurate" on the latter point and rejected the ambassador's counter-
arguments.
Comment: When the new UN truce proposals
were presented on 25 May, the senior Communist negotiator stated that
the proposals for the ultimate disposition of prisoners unwilling to return--
either to release them in Korea or to transfer the issue to the UN General
Assembly--"could not be agreed to."
At the 1 June meeting in Panmunjom, the Com-
munists are expected to reject officially this critical point in the UN pro-
posals and to reaffirm their demand for indefinite consideration of the
prisoners issue by a political conference where the prisoners' release
could be blocked. In view of Nehru's recent public endorsement of the
UN's proposals, the Communists may no longer regard favorably a pos-
sible alternative proposal for disposition of the prisoners by majority
vote of the five-nation custodial commission.
2. French Foreign Ministry disapproves Western initiative on East-West
problems:
French Foreign Ministry experts on the Soviet
Union, including Ambassador Joxe, think that
the present Western "impatience" for talks with
the USSR is "most unfortunate." They feel
Moscow should be forced to take the lead in any overtures.
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The Foreign Ministry spokesman who relayed
these views to Ambassador Dillon believes that there will be leaks of
any disagreements at the forthcoming Bermuda talks. Although a final
agreement to make concessions to the Russians would be "ill advised,"
the absence of one would be condemned by Western public opinion as
"intransigence."
The French official agrees that it would be
desirable to avoid any linking of the three-power talks to four-power
talks, but believes that this connection would be impossible to avoid.
3. Soviet diplomat comments on East-West issues:
The first secretary of the Soviet embassy in
London told an American embassy officer
that the Austrian question must be settled in
connection with the German problem. He said
that Secretary Dulles had overemphasized the Austrian treaty as evi-
dence of the USSR's peaceful intentions.
He personally saw no reason why Germany could
not be unified on the basis of the Oder-Neisse frontier and with general
elections on a proportional basis for East and West Germany, without
outside influence.
3.3(h)(2)
The secretary also said he was convinced that
there would be an armistice in Korea. He pointed out that the hostilities
in Korea had been a severe drain on the USSR and China as well as the US.
Comment: The secretary's remarks suggest
that the USSR is trying to create the impression that it is still willing to
settle outstanding East-West issues despite recent difficulties over
Austria and Korea.
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FAR EAST
4. Possible Chinese Communist invasion of Tachen Islands indicated:
indications of 3.3(h)(2)
an imminent Chinese Communist operation
against the Tachen Islands. Transport planes
have appeared in the nearby Choushan Islands,
Communist naval units in the Choushans have
and are more aggressive, and Ningpo airfield on the
mainland opposite the Tachens is now operational.
In addition, an individual arrested in the
Tachens recently allegedly carried documents describing landing sites
in the islands.
Comment: The Tachens, the northernmost
of the Nationalist-held islands on the China coast, lie about 200 miles
south of Shanghai. About 6,000 Nationalist troops, 2.000 marines and
10,000 guerrillas are available for their defense.
A Chinese Communist invasion of the islands
was reported as imminent at this time a year ago and has been reported
four times since February. Chinese Communist forces along the Chekiang
coast now number at least 70,000 men and could capture the islands when-
ever they care to make the effort.
3.3(h)(2)
5. Highest numbered Chinese Communist air division now believed to be 31st:
3.3(h)(2)
the 34th
Air Division had been identified, probably in
South China.
At pres-
ent, the highest numbered air division of the 27 currently identified is
the 31st; the 1st, 27th, 29th, and 30th have not as yet been observed.
3.3(h)(2)
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CURITY INFORMA
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Bao Dai plans ultimatum to French on Vietnam army build-up:
7.
Vietnam's new defense minister has informed 3.3(h)(2)
the American consul in Hanoi that Bao Dai is
currently working on a plan for a Vietnamese
army of 500,000 within the next three years.
Bao Dai reportedly stated that the present Vietnamese military estab-
lishment is stagnating and that the time has come to make a "last offer"
to the French, indicating that unless they support his army plan, he will
turn to the United States,
Comment: The French-Vietnamese program
for the build-up of the Vietnam army is considerably behind schedule.
Bao Dal's principal purpose in making demands on the French is probably
to strengthen his political position in Vietnam.
Assuming adequate foreign aid, a Vietnam army
of 500,000 is conceivable, but unless the government gains greater popu-
larity the reliability of such an army would be questionable.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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EASTERN EUROPE
8. Czechoslovakia opens first aluminum plant:
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)
Comment: This plant, the first of its kind in
Czechoslovakia, had been scheduled to go into operation next October
with an initial annual production of 3,000 to 4,000 tons based on imports
of semi-processed Hungarian ore. By 1955 the plant is scheduled to
reach its maximum production of approximately 40,000 tons a year, or
about seven percent of the output forecast for the Orbit. A substantial
part of this production will probably be used in Czechoslovakia's expand-
ing aircraft and war industries.
The planned expansion of Satellite aluminum
output should eliminate by 1955 the bloc's dependence on imports.
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WESTERN EUROPE
9. Preliminary Yugoslav-Italian talks on Trieste reportedly stalled:
In reply to a Yugoslav approach to Italy 3.3(h)(2)
offering a settlement of the Trieste question
along the present zonal boundaries, the Italian
Foreign Office countered with a plan which
would cede Zone A and the coastal strip of Zone B to Italy. Following
this meeting on 22 May, the Yugoslav negotiator reported that nothing
had been accomplished and that previous progress was jeopardized.
Comment: Italian officials view the Yugoslav
approach as a maneuver to relieve American pressure on Tito for con-
cessions on Trieste before the Italian elections. In the light of Yugoslavia's
previous conditiohs and its obvious apprehension over assumed Western
plans for a solution favorable to Italy, the sincerity of the Yugoslav
approach is questionable.
10. Rearmament issue reportedly threatens split in West German Social
Democratic Party:
Social Democratic Party chairman Erich 3.3(h)(2)
011enhauer now faces opposition from other
party leaders over his antagonism to the Bonn
and Paris treaties. 3.3(h)(2)
party moderates believe that if its campaign against the
treaties is continued, the party will find it difficult to join a govern-
ment coalition following the September election.
011enhauer reportedly thinks that he will be
overthrown at the next party conference unless a four-power meeting
or a court decision against the treaties proves that his policies have
been politically wise.
treaties.
Comment: There is a growing belief 3.3(h)(2)
in Bonn that the Constitutional Court will reject the
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