CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/01/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050109
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: January 3, 1953

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3 January 1953
Copy No,
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. _
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Large manganese-copper deal between USSR and London firm
reported (page ,3),
2. Yugoslav position on joint military planning with Greece and
Turkey reported (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Japan planning reduced defense expenditures in new budget (page 4).
4. Chinese apparently expect early completion of highway to Lhasa
(page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Nepal reported considering diplomatic relations with Communist
China (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Kashani reportedly challenges Mossadeq's control of parliament
(na rer.
v. tsritisn uez proposals contingent on Egypts participation in iviz.vo
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Soviet officials predict early reopening of Berlin canal (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
11. Colombian guerrilla outbreak reportedly suppressed (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Large manganese-copper deal between USSR and London firm reported:
a British 3.3(h)(2)
firm has reached agreement with the Soviet
trade delegation in London to purchase 150,000
tons of Russian manganese ore at $47 per ton
against delivery via Antwerp to Gdynia of Chilean electrolytic copper of
the same value. Deliveries are to be made within the next six months.
Comment: This amount of manganese ore is
about three times the total quantity shipped from the USSR to all of West-
ern Europe in 1951, although it represents less than three percent of
estimated Soviet production. In November an East-West trader ap-
proached the US Embassy in Bern seeking a dollar buyer for at least
50,000 tons of manganese ore and an offer to an American firm of 30,000
tons has been reported from Bombay.
The apparent willingness to expand manganese
ore exports suggests that Moscow now attaches more significance to
obtaining embargoed copper than to depriving the West of manganese.
2. Yugoslav position on joint military planning with Greece and Turkey
reported:
Yugoslavia desires a formal agreement with
Greece and Turkey for joint action in the
event any one of the countries is attacked,
according to the Greek Defense Minister.
At the most recent military talks with Greece, Yugoslavia proposed
that such an agreement include specific arrangements such as pro-
vision for operations of Greek forces in Yugoslavia and vice versa.
The Greek Defense Minister states that Greece
would be disposed to sign a defense agreement with Yugoslavia if such
an agreement would not conflict with its NATO obligations.
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Comment: Yugoslav military talks with Tur-
key and with General Handy, representing the United States, France,
and Britain, have made little progress; none of the participants is yet
ready to make definite commitments. Yugoslav willingness to proceed
Immediately with Greece probably reflects the greater need of such
cooperation for strategic reasons, the hope that Turkey will follow
Greece's lead, and a need to strengthen Yugoslavia's hand against Italy.
Turkish officials have also indicated a desire to coordinate the matter
with NATO before making a specific agreement.
FAR EAST
3, Japan planning reduced defense expenditures in new budget:
The Japanese Cabinet has tentatively approved 3.3(h)(2)
a reduction in defense expenditures for the
fiscal year beginning 1 April 1953. The pro-
posed budget, which will be presented to the
Diet in late January, allocates only $403,000,000 to the defense pro-
gram in contrast with a total of $514,000,00a for the current fiscal year.
Comment: The proposed reduction reflects the
basic weakness of the Yoshida government, which feels that public opin-
ion will not support increased military expenditures. An expansion of
Japan's ground forces to 180,000 during 1953, as envisaged in tentative
American planning, cannot be accomplished under the proposed budget.
Japanese officials justify the contemplated de-
crease on the grounds that $155,000,000 of the 1952 appropriation was
a one-time expenditure for construction and original equipment.
4. Chinese apparently expect early completion of highway to Lhasa:
four tons of agricultural equip-
ment for Tibet had arrived.
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Comment: Only the eastern half of the 1,300-
mile Kangting-Lhasa road, begun in 1950, was open to traffic in Novem-
ber. the road may be finished sooner than
expected.
Completion of the first motor highway to Lhasa
will greatly increase Chinese influence and trade in Tibet, and facilitate
logistic support of Peiping's estimated 20,000 troops there.
SOUTH ASIA
5. Nepal reported considering diplomatic relations with Communist China:
The Nepalese Government is seriously con-
sidering the early establishment of diplomatic
relations with Communist China,
A late November Nepalese press report stated
that the establishment of relations with Peiping was under consideration.
Comment: Nepal reportedly rejected a Chinese
Communist approach on this subject last summer, apparently because of
opposition from India, which exerts strong influence in Kathmandu.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Kashani reportedly challenges Mossadeq's control of parliament:
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Comment: Kashani is the acknowledged leader
of the extreme rightists of the National Front and he may have gained new
adherents following recent parliamentary criticism of the government.
Nevertheless, Mossadeq is believed still able to control the National
Front.
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3.
9. British Suez proposals contingent on Egypt's participation in MEDO:
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part of the British proposal for settling Anglo-
Egyptian differences. Under the plan, now
being discussed in London with American
officials, MEDO would be established, including Egyptian officers,
as soon as Egypt agrees to participate.
Britain hopes thus to determine Egyptian will-
ingness to cooperate in the joint defense of the Middle East before with-
drawing all British troops from the Suez area.
Comment Ambassador Caffery, commenting
on the British proposal, states that Egypt will not accept any settle-
ment making British evacuation dependent on participation in MEDO.
To him, Cairo's 10 November note to the United States indicates that
Nagib would probably not agree to any public announcement of his
Intention to participate in joint Middle East planning.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Soviet officials predict early reopening of Berlin canal:
Soviet officials told British representatives
in Berlin on 30 December that the Rothensee
shiplift on the Mittelland Canal would probably
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be opened by the end of January. They said that repairs had been
given high priority, but that bad weather had hampered the work.
The Soviet officials also said that the Allied
request for additional trains to Berlin could be granted, but that
details had not yet been worked out with the East German Reichsbahn.
They proposed another meeting in about two weeks to discuss the
� matter�
Comment According to some reports, the
shiplift is already being used by East German barges.
. LATIN AMERICA
11. Colombian guerrilla outbreak reportedly suppressed: 3.3(h)(2)
an attack against the
Palanquero Air Base about 70 miles north-
west of Bogota had been repulsed early that morning and that the
armed forces were in control of the situation. Divisional police
commanders were ordered to take preventive measures against pos-
sible attacks elsewhere.
Comment The Revolutionary Junta of the
Colombian guerrillas was reportedly preparing an all-out attack on
government installations for any time after the night of 31 December
should the Junta be able to confirm rumors of the proposed initiation
of a full-scale government offensive against the guerrilla forces. The
attack on Palanquero may be the forerunner of widespread guerrilla
action.
Government forces, including the police, total
approximately 42,000. Guerrilla strength is conservatively estimated
at 5,000 to 25,000.
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