CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/09/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973609
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: September 6, 1952

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INFORMATION
6 September 1952
Copy No.
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN C S.
DECLASSIRED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEkT REVIEW DATE. A." p
Office of Current Intelligence AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE4444714 REVIEWER;
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECUP 1TFr.PMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. North Korean Government concerned over civilian morale (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Communist-led revolt in Indonesia reportedly scheduled for 7 October
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. France urges common Western policy on Egyptian title issue
(page 4).
4. French alarmed over implied American support of Tunisian nationalista
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Bulgarian Premier reportedly liquidated (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. France seeks three-power MEDO Standing Group (page 6).
7. Western powers vulnerable on Austrian occupation costs (page 6).
8. West German Socialist forecasts ratification of treaties (page 7).
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FAR EAST
I. North Korean Government concerned over civilian morale:
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\the concentrated
UN air attacks on North Korea brought a
North Korean request for a greater air defense
mmi men rom the Chinese, in order to prevent a complete collapse
of civilian morale. The Chinese refused, arguing that the UN's real
target was Manchuria. They agreed, however, to a joint approach to
the USSR for additional aircraft. 3.3(h)(2)
Comment/
intensified bombing on civilian morale. Enemy propa-
ganaa, by its vilification of the attacks, had previously indicated some
degree of effectiveness.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
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2. Communist-led revolt in Indonesia reportedly scheduled for 7 October:
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a Corn-
inumbt-ieu coalition of leftist, militant
Moslem, and Indonesian Army elements have
planned a "united revolutionary action" to
overthrow the Indonesian Government. The rebellion is scheduled to
begin 7 October in Sumatra and Java. �
Guerrilla warfare will be waged in Sumatra
to pin down Indonesian troops and to disrupt the economy and communi-
cations, while the main effort will be on Java. An attempt will be made
to seize key government officials in the initial stages of action.
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Comment: Indonesian guerrilla forces in
Java have shown increased strength and coordination during the past
six months, but do not appear capable of a sustained military campaign.
There is no evidence that a significant number of Indonesian Army
forces have defected or will defect to the Communists or militant Moslems.
The Indonesian Government is believed capable
of suppressing the predicted attack.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. France urges common Western policy on Egyptian title issue:
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The French Foreign Ministry believes that the
Western nations should adopt a common policy
in preparing new credentials for their diplo-
matic representatives in Cairo. It points out
that Egypt established a precedent last month
when it accepted the British Ambassador's credentials addressed to
"King Fuad IL"
The British credentials, the Foreign Office
notes, satisfactorily avoided the delicate Sudan issue by not mentioning
the title. France fears that acceptance of the title by the Netherlands
may be used by General Nagib's opponents to discredit the Egyptian
Government's compromise with Britain.
Comment: A common Western policy of
avoiding recognition of the Sudan title appears to be impossible now.
The Netherlands, Pakistan, Greece, and India have already recognized
the title, and Italy may soon follow suit.
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4. French alarmed over implied American support of Tunisian nationalists:
The Acting French Resident General in Tunis3.3(h)(2)
has expressed grave concern over an alleged
statement by UN delegate Gross that the United
States hopes the "consultations between France
and the true representatives of the Tunisian people will result in an agree-
ment prior to the UN General Assembly."
The Resident General stated that the Neo-
Destour Party will interpret the word "true" as full American backing
for their thesis that Baccouche is not a Tunisian representative.
Comment: France may now request clarification
of the alleged statement in the hope that an American reply might indicate
more positive support for the French position.
In a UN information program on 1 September
Ambassador Gross stated that the United States hoped Tunisian difficul-
ties might be solved by "fair and friendly consultations between the French
and the Tunisians -- by that I mean representative Tunisians."
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Bulgarian Premier reportedly liquidated: 3.3(h)(2)
Premier Vulko Chervenkov has allegedly been
liquidated and will probably be replaced by
Vice Premier Ivan Mikhailov or Vice Premier
Georgi Chankov,
Chervenkov has not been seen at any public
function since 2 July. his removal may be re- 3.3(h)(2)
lated to a Bulgarian inspection trip reportedly made by Beria and
Vyshinsky in June.
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Comment: There is no evidence to support
that Chervenkov has been purged. The Bulgarian Premier took active
part in the regional conference of the Bulgarian Communist Party held
at Stalin on 10 August, and he has been eulogized in numerous recent
public pronouncements, including the official slogans for the Liberation
Day celebration on 9 September.,
WESTERN EUROPE
6. France seeks three-power MEDO Standing Group:
France wants a Middle East Defense Organi-
zation Standing Group composed of the United
States, Britain, and France, as in NATO,
according to preliminary Foreign Ministry
views. The French hold that their agreement last year to support Tur-
key's NATO membership and to join in the first approach to Egypt on
the so-called Middle East Command was based on a definite three-power
understanding of this Standing Group concept.
The French oppose any approach to the Arab
states until the establishment of MEDO is announced. The Foreign
Ministry still desires an '-early tripartite meeting in London on MEDO.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: The preliminary British MEDO
draft makes no provision for a Standing Group at this stage. The French,
who have no forces to contribute at present, see the Standing Group
concept as their only means of retaining any top-level control.
7. Western powers vulnerable on Austrian occupation costs:
American officials in Vienna believe that the3.3(h)(2)
perennial question of occupation cost pay-
ments may be particularly difficult this year.
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Although not too burdensome on the Austrian economy, the reimburse-
ment of Allied expenses has become "an emotional question" which
may be further exacerbated in the coming election campaign.
These officials note that in 1950 and 1951
the Russians were prepared to accept a lower figure than either the
British or French. Should the USSR extend its new "liberal" Austrian
policy to the question of occupation costs, the Western powers would
be placed in an awkward position.
Comment: The right-wing opposition in
Austria has already indicated that Western occupation policies will be
explOited to the full in the next elections, and the Socialist Vice-Chancellor
has urged some alleviation of the occupation burden if no state treaty is
forthcoming.
The Russians can be expected to use every
opportunity to make political capital of British and French demands.
8. West German Socialist forecasts ratification of treaties:
Carlo Schmid, a leader of the opposition 3.3(h)(2)
Social Democratic Party and chairman of the
Foreign Affairs Committee nOw considering
the Bonn and Paris treaties, believes that
final Bundestag action cannot be completed before early November,
but that ratification is certain. Since he did not mention his party's
case against the constitutionality of the treaties during his talk with
American officials, he apparently assumes that Chancellor Adenauer
will win on this issue as well.
Neither the Bonn coalition parties nor the
Cabinet have yet seriously discussed the timetable for ratification.
Adenauer and his party continue to favor speedy action, but the minor
coalition parties, dissatisfied over the war criminal and Saar issues,
are showing less eagerness.
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