CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064606
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: October 26, 1952

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26 October 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DATE
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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REVIEWER:
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SECURI NFORMATION
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Barrage balloons apparently protect key bridge in Soviet Far
East (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Indonesian Army clique may act if prime minister resigns (page 3).
NEAR EAST AFRICA
3. Iraq unlikely to join MEDO without other Arab states (page 4).
4. Arab countries may exclude air and sea carriers operating via
Israel (page 5).
5. Papagos reports that Greek generals are plotting against him
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Belgian Government considers cuts in defense budget (page 6).
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SOVIET UNION
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1. Barrage balloons apparently protect key bridge in Soviet Far East:
barrage balloons
at Khabarovsk in the Soviet Far East,
probably to protect the Transsiberian Railroad
bridge over the Amur River.
Comment: Although barrage balloons are
effective only against low-flying aircraft, their use indicates the
unusual extent of preparedness measures taken to augment air defenses
In the Soviet Far East. The installation of up-to date radar equipment,
the conversion of most fighter units to jet aircraft, and the integration
of local air force and navy fighter intercept control during the past
year and a half have been noted previously.
The Khabarovsk railway bridge is a vital
point on the major communication link between the Soviet Far East
and the rest of the Soviet Union.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Indonesian Army clique may act if prime minister resigns:
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the current government crisis is far from
over. Prime Minister Wilopo is not con-
sidered strong enough to lead the cabinet 3.3(h)(2)
rticularly if any of his ministers withdraw.
Should this occur, the army's "young officer clique" will attempt to
fill the resulting"power vacuum:'
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Comment: Both President Sukarno and Vice
President Hatta believe that the cabinet, which has assumed the respon-
sibilities of the indefinitely recessed Parliament, can be retained as
constituted.
A confidant of Hatta, however, has informed
the American Ambassador of the Vice President willingness to head
an emergency cabinet should Wilopo resign or fail to display leadership.
Since Hatta is widely respected, his appointment would be expected
to forestall action by the military.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iraq unlikely to join MEDO without other Arab states:
American Ambassador Berry in Baghdad
states it would be difficult for Iraq to split
from the other Arab states in order to
participate in MEDO, as was recently sug-
gestedbyTkhPiTtne Minister Menderes. Berry also points out
that such a separation would be inadvisable from an internal security
standpoint, even though the Iraqi Regent may have shown a favorable
attitude when discussing MEDO with the Turkish prime minister in
London. He adds that the present caretaker cabinet is in no position
to make such a decision.
According to the Ambassador, Iraq could
be persuaded to use its influence to bring about a joint decision by
all the Arab countries if MEDO is made sufficiently attractive. The
Ambassador feels, however, that no positive Arab action can be
expected unless Egypt is also willing to use its influence in favor
of MEDO.
Comment: The American Ambassadors
in the Arab countries recently agreed that a new approach should
be made to win Arab acceptance of MEDO. These officials, and
other foreign observers generally, believe that Egypt holds the key
to Arab approval of the Western defense proposals.
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4. Arab countries may exclude air and sea carriers operating via
Israel:
5.
on or before 20 January 1953 the Arab
countries will announce their decision to
exclude from Arab airports all commercial carriers whose aircraft
operate through Israel, even if only for servicing. He also hinted
that all steamship companies whose ships call at Israeli ports might
also be excluded from Arab countries.
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The Defense Minister further warned 3.3(h)(2)
that the Arab countries meant business.
Comment: This is the first report that
the Arab countries have decidedTo enlarge their boycott of Israel.
Despite periodic rumors of possible Arab settlements with Israel,
no real progress has been reported. On the other hand there has
been no indication that the Arabs are about to unite in implementing
a drastic decision which would injure their own economies as well
as that of Israel.
Papagos reports that Greek generals are plotting against him:
Marshal Papagos told the American Embass:3.3(h)(2)
in Athens on 23 October that several Greek
generals, including General Potamianos, the
King's aide, may attempt to prevent him from
taking office if his Greek Rally wins the 16 November national elections.
Papagos finds it difficult td believe such
a move would be contemplated, but he has notified tne Minister of
Defense. He does not believe the Minister will take any effective
action.
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Comment: There is no evidence directly
confirming the existence of such ilot, and Papagos' assertions may
have been motivated by his desire to prevent further political meddling
in the army. Nevertheless, the Palace remains firmly opposed to
Papagos as prime minister, and army attempts to purge pro-Papagos
officers have been continual although sporadic. Papagos has made
no secret of his intention, once he becomes prime minister, of
removing several top army officers.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Belgian Government considers cuts in defense budget:
The Belgian Defense Minister fears that
the current press demands for budget
reductions may force the government to
make cuts in defense appropriations. The
mer can Jmbassy In russels also reports that other government
officials expect such cuts in view of the government's losses in the
recent communal elections.
Comment: The Belgian Prime Minister
has informed the American Ambassador that approximately 12. 5
percent of the planned military expenditures cannot be financed,
and that the government is determined not to take any inflationary
steps.
American Embassy officials believe
that the government will publicize the budget so as to indicate
that a US long-term loan will be necessary in order for the
full amount to be expended.
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