CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/09/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973617
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: September 16, 1952

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SECURI INFORMATION
16 September 1952
Copy. No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C,
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2,, trd y
AUTH: . HR 70-2
DATE: REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURE NFORMATION
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SUMMARY
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
1. Iran plans military reorganization (page T).
2. Libyan Premier criticizes Western policy on North Africa (page 3).
EASTERN EUROPE
3. Comment on Premier Hoxha's tour of northern Albania (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Yugoslav Government replies to tripartite note on Trieste (page 4).
5. Schuman expects no French action on EDC ratification this year
(page 5).
6. West German agitation for release of war criminals increasing
(page 6).
7.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
1. Iran plans military reorganization:
General Kiani, secretary of Prime Minister3.3(h)(2)
Mossadeq's military advisory board, states
that the board is considering a reorganization
of the army and the gendarmerie.
The board plans to increase the strength
of the gendarmerie to 40, 000 and make it responsible for internal
and border security. The army is to be reduced by several thousand
men and to be concentrated in northern Iran rather than dispersed
throughout the country.
General Kiani states that these proposals are
in line with the thinking of the American Army Mission now in Iran.
Comment: The American Army Mission
has urged that the army be made more compact, but not that it be
concentrated in northern Iran. The army cannot now control the Soviet-
Iranian frontier and the gendarmerie is not likely to be any more
effective. Concentration of the artily in the north would give the power-
ful Qashqai tribe in southwestern Iran an opportunity for greater
autonomy.
The National Front may be expected to
try progressively to strengthen its control of the security forces.
The present army strength is about 129, 000 as compared to 20, 000
for the gendarmerie.
2. Libyan Premier criticizes Western policy on North Africa:
Libyan Prime Minister Muntasser has
told the American Minister that France's
North African policy is a "path of folly,"
which might force the inhabitants of that
area to turn to Communism.
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The Prime Minister strongly criticized
the United States for its implied support of France in Tunisia and
its failure to oppose French colonialism. He warned that Libyan
confidence in the United States was being undermined because of the
American efforts to avoid UN debate on Tunisia.
Comment:
Tunisian nationalists are using Tripolitania as a
refuge and possible base for terrorist operations. France also
suspects the existence of an arms traffic between Libya and Tunisia.
EASTERN EUROPE
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3. Comment on Premier Hoxha's tour of northern Albania:
Premier Hoxha's extensive speaking campaign in northern Albania
during the past week tends to support reports that there is considerable
disaffection and unrest in the area. His appeals for vigilance
against agents of Marshal Tito indicate that he fears the effects of
Yugoslav attempts to exploit the situation.
Three Albanian regiments were reportedly
moved into the Yugoslav border area in early August to reinforce
the division already stationed there.
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Yugoslav Government replies to tripartite note on Trieste:
Ambassador Allen describes as "cOrap1ete133.3(h)(2)
negative" the Yugoslav reply to the American-
British-French note recommending settlement
of the Trieste question.
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Comment: Recent Yugoslav actions have
not been calculated to improve prospects for negotiations with Italy
on Trieste. New decrees were issued in late August which further
integrated Zone B with Yugoslavia. In recent speeches Marshal Tito
has stated that Yugoslavia cannot change its attitude toward the
Trieste issue and has warned of the possibility of attacks 13y,Italy.
5. . Schuman expects no French action on EDC ratification this year:
Foreign Minister Schuman told Chancellor
Adenauer that committee work in the French
National Assembly on the Bonn and Paris
treaties could not be expected before January,
ind that there would be further delay if a government crisis occurred.
Adenauer
consiaers sucn a crisis not uniikeiy ana preaicts tnat ItalY will not
ratify before France.
Comment: The French Foreign Ministry
estimates that Assembly support for EDC ratification is now at the
lowest point in several months, and that ratification may be achieved
only because of the French conviction that otherwise the United States
will push German rearmament without French concurrence. Assembly
discussion had heretofore been expected in November.
Adenauer is confident that the Federal'
Republic will ratify by mid-October at the latest. Dutch parliamentary
consideration is not expected until December, and Belgium, which
may start debate on the EDC in November, may decide that ratifica-
tion requires a constitutional amendment. Luxembourg and Italy will
probably await French action.
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6. West German agitation for release of war criminals increasing:
American officials in Germany predict that
the growing agitation in West Germany for
the release of war criminals will increase
in the coming months, and may cause Chan-
cellor Adenauer difficulty in securing ratification of the Bonn and
Paris treaties. His majority may be cut enough to "cast doubt on
the validity and finality" of the ratification vote and unless a solution
is found, the problem will affect the "wholeheartedness of the German
defense effort."
7.
Comment: The Bundestag is scheduled
on 17 September to debate a motion, originally presented in June,
designed to exert pressure on the government to work for a satisfactory
solution. Because of the increasing criticism from members of all
parties, coalition leaders fear its effect on the coming treaty debate.
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