CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973602
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 28, 1952

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SECUR INFORMATION
28 August 1952
Copy No. 57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
0000AENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN GLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
Office of Current Intelligencount HA_ .70-2
OAT M itta441REMEWERt
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1, Ambassador Kennan analyzes changes in party structure (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Railroad construction plan in Southwest China revealed (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. General Nagib may change army commanders in Sinai region
(page 4).
4. Iran asks Turkey to mediate oil dispute (page 5).
5. Iranian Army ordered to avoid politics and civilian contacts
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. France may seek American concessions for ratification of EDC
treaty (page 6).
7. French and German officials comment on four-power talks (page 6).
8. Denmark seeks French support on Bornholm issue (page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
I. Ambassador Kennan analyzes changes in party structure:
Ambassador Kennan points out that a Pravda 3.3(h)(2)
article of 26 August confirms that the estab-
lishment of a Presidium merely formalizes
an already existing situation. The article
sugges s since e war,control over the party apparatus has
rested with the Secretariat.
The Ambassador comments that under the
arrangement now to be formalized, lesser members of the Politburo,
and even Molotov himself, have apparently been excluded from control
over personnel, which would also mean control over the delicate
question of future succession. This latter function has apparently
been delegated to Malenkov and a few people under him, working within
the framework of the Secretariat and receiving general guidance from
Stalin.
Comment: � 3.3(h)(2)
Malenkov seems to be the Politburo member responsible 3.3(h)(2)
for party appointments.
FAR EAST
2. Railroad construction plan in Southwest China revealed:
The Chinese Communists plan to build
600 kilometers of railroads a year in China'
Southwest District, /
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Comment: The Chinese have made a pre-
liminary survey for 3,000 kilometers of new lines in Szechwan,
Yunnan and Kweichow. They are also known to have definite plans
for building 2,000 kilometers of new lines in the Northwest, but the
timetable for this work is unknown.
These networks will link six western
provinces and connect them with the main Chinese rail net. When
completed, they will provide export outlets for an area now relatively
isolated, but rich in agricultural, mineral and petroleum products.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. General Nagib may change army commanders in Sinai region:
General Nagib inspected the Egyptian gar-
rison in the Sinai district for the first time
on 22 August,7
/ The morale of these
units is reportedly low and Nagib may ap-
point new commanders.
many off4cers
in this area are considered hostile to Nagib. They apparently also
fear that their profitable contraband trade with Israel may be sup-
pressed.
Comment: The Sinai troops located on the
coastal area below Gaza include Egypt's only full division. These
units did not participate in the recent military coup. This force and
the Wald Party are the chief threats to the continued control of the
Nagib clique.
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4. Iran asks Turkey to mediate oil dispute:
Comment: Mossadeq previously presented
a similar request to the Italian Ambassador in Tehran. These ap-
proaches appear to .be part of an attempt to put pressure on Great Britain.
Ankara has already informed its NATO
representative that it favors American and British support of Mossadeq.
3.3(h)(2)
5. Iranian Army ordered to avoid politics and civilian contacts:
Comment: This order is a direct contrast
to those issued by Garzan during Qavam's brief rule, in which army
commanders were urged to foster propaganda against the National
Front because it was "allied with the Tudeh." This illustrates National
Front success in limiting the army's political activity.
Garzan and other anti-government officers
were retired on 25 August.
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WESTERN EUROPE
6. France may seek American concessions for ratification of EDC treaty:
France may still attempt to use ratification 3.3(h)(2)
of the EDC treaty as a lever to force addi-
tional American support for French policy.
This was suggested by a Foreign Ministry
spokesman's explanation of a reference to "related problems" in
Schuman's message to Secretary Acheson on the US Senate's approval
of the contractual agreement.
Schuman's statement that French ratification
of the Bonn and Paris treaties would involve more difficulties was
interpreted by the spokesman as referring to stronger American sup-
port in Indochina and North Africa and to additional assurance against
German secession from the EDC. Such assurances would involve -
replacement by American or British troops of any divisions withdrawn
by the Germans.
7. French and German officials comment on four-power talks:
Germany
The head of the Political Affairs Section of 3.3(h)(2)
the French Foreign Ministry favors agreeing
to another four-power meeting on Germany,
despite its obvious futility. His personal
opinion is that the latest Soviet note is a
"signing-off on what the Russians had started
in March." The USSR has abandoned hope of
influencing the West against integrating West
into Atlantic defense planning and is now concentrating on
German opinion.
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Meanwhile, in West Germany an aide to
Chancellor Adenauer states that it would be disastrous for the Western
Allies to agree to a conference on Soviet terms, and that their reply
should reverse the agenda order proposed by Moscow. Calling the
latest Soviet note an "assist for our side," the German official stated
that it would not delay ratification of the Bonn and Paris treaties by
the Bundestag.
Comment: The French Government will
probably insist on continuing the exchange of notes, and may even
press for immediate talks if public sentiment develops in that direction.
8. Denmark seeks French support on Bornholm issue:
The Danish Government has asked France's
opinion on the advisability of warning the
Soviet Union of the consequences of any
action against the island of Bornholm The
Danish Charge in Paris called attention to
gressiveness in the Baltic as well as Moscow's propa-
ganda attacks on Danish cooperation with NATO.
Comment: In response to mounting Soviet
pressure, Denmark has not only sought such assurances of Western
support, but has also formally asked that the NATO maneuvers in the
Baltic be restricted to avoid provoking the Soviet Union.
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