CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02693994
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 6, 1952

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SECU INFORMATION
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6 December 1952
Copy No. 57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DocumENT
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NEAT REVq.-.W DATE:
AN
DATE REVIEWER
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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_�i4 INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1,
2,
3.
Large quantity of Soviet manganese ore offered (page 3).
AncQi}Ala rev-mtriiefinn inf 1 nntr rqnve submarine at Lening as nage
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Thai premier concerned over Communist activities (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Afghanistan considers direct approach on Pushtoonistan (page 5).
6. Comment on political disorders in Indian-held Kashmir (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. General Mahmoud of Iraq reportedly intends to remain prime
minister (page 6).
8. Comment on assassination of Tunisian nationalist Farhat Hached
(page 7).
9. Greek Government shows new signs of independence (page 8),
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Yugoslays show sudden desire for military planning with Greece
(page 8).
11. Lagging coal production endangers Polish economy (page 9).
WESTERN EUROPE
12. Purge trial of East German Reds seen a possibility (page 9).
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RET
SOVIET UNION
1. Large quantity of Soviet manganese ore offered:
ferro-manganese.
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On 25 November the American Legation in 3.3(h)(2)
Bern was approached by an east-west trader
seeking a dollar buyer for at least 50,000 tons
of Soviet manganese ore and 6,000 tons of
He specified delivery via Antwerp.
Comment: This offer approximates the total
quantity shipped from the USSR to all of Western Europe last year,
representing, however, only one percent of estimated Soviet production.
The ore offered is inferior in quality to that Stockpiledby the United States
Government.
The apparent change in Soviet policy on
manganese ore exports may reflect the USSR's view that its limited
embargo has not impaired the West's industrial and military expansion.
It may also demonstrate the Orbit's need for dollars.
In spite of increases in output, chiefly in the
Gold Coast, India and the Union of South Africa, following the Kremlin's
curtailment of shipments to the United States in 1948, manganese ore
remains in limited supply in the West because of the expansion of
steel production,
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2. ,Possible construction of long range submarine at Leningrad:
sighting
a nearly completed large
ocean patrol submarine at Sudomekh yard
in T arthlgrado estimates
production at a rate of 20 to -30 per
year.
Comment: This information supports
earlier indications that the Sudomekh yard may be shifting submarine
construction activity from coastal to ocean patrol types.
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there have been unconfirmed sightings of a submarine
under construction larger than those previously observed at that yard.
Production of 20 to 30 submarines a year is
within Soviet capabilities, but there is no evidence that such a rate has
been achieved,
3,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Thai premier concerned over Communist activities:
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Premier Phibun told the American Ambassador
on 4 December that over 2,000 "Communist
soldiers" had infiltrated Thailand to serve
as shock troops or agents in an organized
attempt to overthrow the government. Phibun
said that the government plans very shortly
to round up known Chinese Communists and
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that he anticipated the arrest of as many as 1,000. The Ambassador
comments that never before has he heard Phibun discuss the Communist
threat with such deep concern.
Fthere had been a considerable influx into Southern Thailand of
Chinese "agriculturalists" from Bangkok who have no visible means
of support.
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Comment: Phibun's remarks seem to confirm
the genuineness of the current Thai anti-Communist drive. On 5 Decem-
ber Police Director General Phao announced that a campaign would
be launched against Chinese terrorists near the Malayan border, accord-
ing to a Hong Kong press dispatch�
SOUTH ASIA
5. Afghanistan considers direct approach on Pushtoonistan:
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Comment: This is the first indicatior that
the Afghan Government might seriously consider negotiating the
Pushtoonistan question in a directs, informal manner--an approach
long urged by Western powers. It is also the first time that Afghan-
istan has displayed any sensitivity to world opinion on the Pushtoonistan
issue. There is no evidence that the Afghan attitude has resulted
from Soviet pressure.
Indications are that Pakistan would be
willing to negotiate with such a mission.
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'fOPSERET
6. Comment on political disorders in Indian-held Kashmir:
The Indian Government may be using current
political disorders in Indian-held Kashmir as a pretext for reasserting
its influence over Sheikh Abdullah's government, which is becoming
increasingly independent, as well as to demonstrate the necessity for
keeping strong Indian forces in the State.
The pro-Indian, Hindu-dominated Praja
Parishad Party, which is responsible for the present disorders, is
composed mainly of landlords who oppose Sheikh Abdullah's land reform
policy of confiscation. It also favors complete integration of Kashmir
with India.
The Praja Parishad was quickly suppressed
by Abdullah's security forces early in 1952 in connection with unrest
in the Jammu area. This time India ordered 1E6 policemen into
Kashmir before there were any signs that the situation was out of
control.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. General Mahmoud of Iraq reportedly intends to remain prime minister:
Prime Minister Nur al Din Mahmoud of
Iraq
plans to remain in office and has no
intention of returning to military duty.
Comment: This is the first direct report
of the intentions of Mahmoud, who was previously quoted as wishing
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to return the government to civilian control. His extensive reform
program as announced last week, however, suggested that he might
be planning to remain as prime minister. The current unrest and
the evident ability of the Communists to exploit it may induce Mahmoud
to postpone elections.
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8. Comment on assassination of Tunisian nationalist Farhat Hached:
Tensions in Tunisia may be expected to
rise sharply as a result of the assassination on 4 December of nation-
alist Farhat Hached, secretary general of the General Federation
of Tunisian Labor. Violent demonstrations are likely, a solution of
the diplomatic impasse between the Bey of Tunis and the French
probably will be postponed indefinitely, and the UN debate on the
Tunisian question may now be bitter and prolonged.
In recent months Hached had become the
most influential nationalist on the Tunisian scene and the only important
one at liberty. He was considered by the French to be personally
responsible for the Bey's rejection on 9 September of French-proposed
reforms.
The assassination was probably perpetrated
by one of two terrorist organizations which have recently sprung up
in Tunisia; one is made up of French residents, the other of natives.
Both have centered their propaganda attacks on "Hached the American."
Some Tunisian leaders were also jealous of his power and influence.
It will be extremely difficult to convince the nationalists that the act
was not inspired by the French.
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9. Greek Government shows new signs of independence:
Greek Minister of Coordination Markezinis
told an American Embassy official that he
believes the veto privilege of the American
and British members of the Greek Currency
Committee should be abolished.
The Embassy adds that Prime Minister
Papagos and Markezinis both feel strongly that the prestige and
authority of the Greek Government require that it assume full respon-
sibility for all its decisions, and that foreigners should be limited
to an advisory capacity.
Comment: The Papagos government has
given several indications since it took office in mid-November of its
Intention to act independently in the military and economic fields.
The Embassy has reported that the new
government is willing to cooperate with the United States and to
follow its advice, but has warned that serious controversy may be
expected if the United States insists on retaining all the controls
believed necessary in the past. Further difficulty is foreshadowed
by Greek concern over reports of a drastic cut in American aid.
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Yugoslays show sudden desire for military planning with Greece:
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Comment: Until the American-British-
French approach to Tito on 21 October for initiation of joint military
planning talks, the Yugoslays had shown considerable caution in
making firm detailed military commitments with any Western govern-
ment. Now, however, the Yugoslays seem to be eager to start def-
inite planning with the US as well as with Greece.
11. Lagging coal production endangers Polish economy:
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A recent marked deterioration in the quantity 3.3(h)(2)
and quality of Polish coal shipments to
Norway, Sweden, and Denmark suggests
that the Polish coal industry is faced with
severe production difficulties.
The American Embassy in Warsaw sees
recent government efforts to conserve fuel and obtain extra man-
power for the mines as illustrating the seriousness of the situation,
According to the Embassy, low labor morale and inefficiency in the
mines as a result of food shortages, low wages, and incessant govern-
ment pressure for increased output may be hampering the production
program.
Comment: Poland's most valuable commodity
for trading with the West is coal for which it obtains strategic goods.
Any continued serious lag in the planned expansion of Polish coal
production would not only retard the country's long range industrial-
ization program, but would also have adverse effects on the Orbit's
economy.
WESTERN EUROPE
12. Purge trial of East German Reds seen a possibility:
preparations may be under way in
East Germany to try a number of once
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prominent Communists who have allegedly had connections with
Western espionage groups.
Most likely candidates for the purge are
Paul Merker, one-time member of the Socialist Unity Party
politburo, and Willi Kreikemeyer, former official of the East
German railway system, both of whom lost their posts two years
ago amid charges of contacts with the Field brothers. Others
believed to be suspect are Gerhard Eisler and such well-known
literary figures as Anna Seghers and Arnold Zweig.
Comment: East German propaganda has
given heavy play to the gaii-ST-Cy trial, and in a recent speech Deputy
Prime Minister Rau referred to the Prague proceedings as an
exposure of the "imperialist efforts" to block "socialist recon-
struction" which are also operating in Germany.
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