CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/07/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02685624
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: July 19, 1952

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SECURErY1NFORMATION
19 Suly 1952
Copy NO. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
ET
SECURITY INFORMATION
REVIEWER:
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on Stalin's attempt to lend prestige to forthcoming peace
congresses (page 3).
2. Austro-Yugoslav conversations reportedly included defense
matters (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Analysis reveals Soviet pilots engaged in 75 percent of Korean air
combat (page 4).
4. Chinese Communists strengthen air defense (page 4).
5. Viet Minh official believes French might discuss withdrawal of
troops (page 5).
6. British officials disturbed by lack of French aggressiveness in
Indochina (page 6).
7. New Chinese Communist incursion into Indochina reported (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Commonwealth countries' attitudes on Middle East defense reported
(page 7).
9. Iranian-Polish trade agreement founders on question of quotas
(page 8).
10. Egyptian Prime Minister insists Sudan title issue cannot be dropped
(page 9).
EASTERN EUROPE
11. Czechoslovakia expects shortage of ethyl fluid this year (page 9).
12. Anthony Eden reportedly to visit Belgrade (page 10).
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GENERAL
I. Comment on Stalin's attempt to lend prestige to forthcoming peace
congresses:
Stalin's interview with Pietro Nenni, vice-
chairman of the World Peace Council, underlines the importance
the USSR attaches to such forthcoming Communist activities as the
Asian Peace Congress scheduled for September in Peiping and the
World Peace Congress for December in Vienna. The interview
coincides with new emphasis placed by various Communist parties
in both Europe and Asia on united front and "peace" tactics.
The interview will also serve to end specu-
lation that Nenni intends to break with the Italian Communists.
Nenni's left-wing socialist party has been exploited by the Commu-
nists to promote a "unity of all anti-Fascist forces," particularly
after neo-Fascist gains in the local May elections.
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2. Austro-Yugoslav conversations reportedly included defense matters;
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tmong the
questions discussed during the recent Gruber-
Tito conversations was the "form which re-
ciprocal intelligence or even consultations
might take in case of the threat of aggression" against either Austria
or Yugoslavia. 3.3(h)(2)
Comment:
nor information submitted
has hinted that the Gruber-Tito discussions went further than a general
review of Austro-Yugoslav problems and Austria's economic interest
In Trieste.
Neither the official communique
As early as last September, however, uncon-
firmed information suggested that defense discussions between Austria
and Yugoslavia were in prospect. Since Austria cannot yet offer com-
mitments in such matters, any discussions were probably exploratory
and long-range.
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FAR EAST
S. Analysis reveals Soviet pilots engaged in 75 percent of Korean air
combat:
3.3(h)(2)
at least 75 percent
of the MIG-15's engaged in combat over North Korea were Soviet-
piloted. Chinese pilots were involved in only 10 percent and the
remaining 15 percent could not be identified.
operational
flights by Chinese pilots declined to such an extent that they were
airborne only to create a show of force without engaging UN aircraft.
Comment:
the majority of MIG-15's encountered over Korea are
still Soviet-piloted. However, in the past month and a half, some
increase in the aggressiveness of Chinese MIG-15 pilots has been
noted, and jet fighters flown by North Koreans have on occasion at-
tacked US planes.
4. Chinese Communists strengthen air defense:
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air warning centers
on the China coast and in Manchuria are co-
ordinating their activities for the first time
y reporting to a central point. It is believed that the center may be
in the Dairen-Port Arthur area.
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Comment: The Chinese Communists have
steadily strengthened their air defense system, particularly radar
coverage, along the coast during the past two years. There are air
warning centers at Canton, Shanghai, Tsingtao, and in southern
Manchuria.
The use of the Soviet-controlled Darien-Port
Arthur area as the major center to which the regional air warning
centers report, if confirmed, would be the first indication of a con-
nection between the Chinese air warning system south of Manchuria
and that in the Soviet Far East.
Most of the air warning systems in the East-
ern European Satellites were recently reorganized to provide tighter
links with Moscow; a similar development in the Far East would not
be unusual because of growing Russian concern over air defense
throughout the Orbit
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5. Viet Minh official believes French might discuss withdrawal of troops:
high officials in France,
including President Auriol, were interested
in withdrawing from Indochina under some "face-saving formula."
the
basic Viet Minh conditions for negotiation are the withdrawal of the
French Army and the independence and unity of Vietnam, and that
"the one who makes the first move must naturally be France because
she began the hostilities."
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Comment: The official French position is
that France is not now negotiating and has no present intention to do
so, but that if the Viet Minh should make any overtures, the offers
would not be rejected; they would be referred to the Bao Dai govern-
ment.
While President Auriol and the other French
leaders named in this report would be quite capable of entering into
such negotiations, no confirmation of this or other reports of Franco-
Viet Minh talks is available.
6. British officials disturbed by lack of French aggressiveness in Indochina
Ambassador Heath in Saigon was told by the3.3(h)(2)
British Minister that Letourneau, during his
recent visit to Singapore, "disquieted" British
officials with his statements on French mili-
tary plans in Indochina. Letourneau had emphasized holding operations
and had spoken of a sizable reduction of French forces by the end of
1954, to be made possible by the development of the Vietnamese Nation-
al Army to a strength of eight divisions.
The British Minister stated that Letourneau
had left the impression in Singapore that he lacked the "victory psy-
chology" of the late Marshal de Lattre. The British official added
his personal view that the French Commander in Chief was of the same
mind as Letourneau and would not oppose French Defense Ministry re-
quests for a reduction of expeditionary forces. He concluded that
British officials in Singapore fear that the military position of Indochina
in 1954 will be significantly weaker than at present.
Comment It has been evident since De Lattre's
death that the French have no specific plan for defeating the Viet Minh
other than the seemingly impossible objective of gradually wearing it
down to an insignificant guerrilla force.
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The development of a national army in Indo-
china is hampered by both budgetary and political considerations.
It will be a matter of years before a Vietnamese army will be capable
of supplanting present French forces and insuring adequate defense Of
Vietnam.
7. New Chinese Communist incursion into Indochina reported:
engaged against
Tonkin, east of
latest incursion
French.
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in Indochina has told the US Army Attache
that an estimated twelve battalions of
Chinese Communist regular troops number-
ing between 5,000 and 6,000 men are now
1,000 French-supported tribesmen in northwestern
Laokay. The Army Attache comments that this
has not been mentioned in regular briefings by the
Comment: This is the third such incursion
in the vicinity of Laokay this year. Three battalions entered in mid-
May and withdrew several weeks later. In the latter part of June,
ten battalions allegedly were repulsed after suffering heavy casualties.
3
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Commonwealth countries' attitudes on Middle East .defense reported:
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the proposed Middle East Commana ot south
Africa, New Zealand and Australia as inter-
ested Commonwealth countries.
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South Africa, he was informed, will participate
In. the command staff and send air and ground forces in case of war
insofar as this does not infringe on the right of Parliament to declare
war. The New Zealand High Commissioner expressed only his govern-
ment's general support. The Australian High Commissioner said
that his country hesitates to send forces to the Middle East because
it considers the greater danger comes from the Pacific area; if this
danger does not develop, Australia will consider the Near East prob-
lem separately. '
Comment: These three governments last
fall accepted invitations to be founding members of the proposed Middle
East Command along with the United States, Britain, France, and
Turkey.
9. Iranian Polish trade agreement founders on question of quotas
The Iranian Government informed the Polish
Legation in Tehran on 24 lune that it would
not sign a trade agreement which failed to
establish fixed quotas for the goods to be ex-
changed, except in the case of oil. The
Iranians insist that the quantity of oil to be
purchased by Poland be arranged jointly.
Subsequently the Polish Foreign Trade
Minister refused to sign the proposed trade
agreement unless quotas could be fixed at a
later date.
The insistence upon quotas, according to the
Polish Legation, is based upon Iran's experience with Hungary with
which a trade agreement was signed without quotas being specified.
As of the end of rune, almost five months after the signing of the
agreement; the Hungarians had yet to make any quota proposals, with
the result that Iran felt obliged to suspend commercial exchanges with
Hungary.
Comment The attitude of the Hungarian and
Polish Governments suggests that their interest in trade agreements
with Iran is more political than economic.
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10. Egyptian Prime Minister insists Sudan title issue cannot be dropped:
Egyptian Prime Minister Sirry Pasha has 3.3(h)(2)
stated to Ambassador Caffery that in spite
of his friendliness toward Britain neither he
nor any other Egyptian Government can allow
the Sudan title issue "to be put in mothballs." Sirry believes that if
Egyptian leaders agreed to setting it aside, they would be faced with
insurrections which would threaten foreign residents, especially the
British. Sirry considers that under these circumstances King Farouk
would lose his throne.
EASTERN EUROPE
11. Czechoslovakia expects shortage of ethyl fluid this year:
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in spite of its increased need for ethyl
fluid R-9 for use in a new formula for
blending gasoline, Czechoslovakia could not count on being supplied
during 1952 with "even the amount originally asked for." The personal
intervention of Czech Minister of Foreign Trade Gregor had been to
no avail in trying to obtain larger quantities.
Comment: Ethyl fluid R-9, a blending in-
gredient used to increase the octane rating of gasoline, is based on
tetraethyl lead, which has in the past been supplied to Czechoslovakia
entirely by the USSR. The failure of this source of supply to meet
Czech needs may explain Czechoslovakia's attempt in June to purchase
100 tons of tetraethyl lead, apparently of Italian origin, through a Swiss
company.
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12. Anthony Eden reportedly to visit Belgrade,:
Anthony Eden has accepted
an official invitation to visit Belgrade, but
no definite date has been set.
Comment: In the light of the suspicion in
Belgrade that Britain is willing to barter Yugoslavia's Adriatic inter-
ests for Italian favor, an official visit by the British Foreign Secretary
would be a significant contribution to improved Anglo-Yugoslav relations.
As a result of the intensified "cold war" between Yugoslavia and Italy
over Trieste, however, it would provoke an unfavorable reaction in
Italy unless some attention were paid to Rome.
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