CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/04/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692625
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 26, 1952

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SECUmTf INFORMATION
26 April 1952
Copy No.5 2
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE. IN CLASS.
1 ; DECLASSIFIED
N 1.).".:T E �
CLASS. CHANCED TO: "I'EXT REVIEW D S tort
AUTH: HA
ZQ-
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DAT
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
, TOP SECRET
SECURI NFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. North Koreans order increased hate propaganda for military units
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Fuel shipments for Soviet Far East sharply increased (page 4).
FAR EAST
3. Soviet air unit at new base in central Manchuria page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Nehru condemns United Nations attidude toward Tunisian case
(page 5).
5. India will need extensive external assistance in 1952-53 (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Israel seeks British loan to meet oil payments (page 6).
7. Egypt may take Suez dispute to UN (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. France cannot again expect UN support for its Tunisian policy
(page 7).
9. Adenauer blames Schuman for Saar accord failure (page 8).
LA TIN AMERICA
1(). Comment on possible disturbances in Ecuador this week-end (page 8).
11. Chilean Foreign Minister fears Bolivian crisis affects South American
stability (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. North Koreans order increased hate propaganda for military units:
Comment: Although the enemy has con-
sistently maintained that the UN grossly mistreated its prisoners
of war, the current reaction to the new list handed to the Commu-
nist negotiators at Panmunjom, containing the names of only 70,000
enemy prisoners who would not resist repatriation, will probably
reach new heights of invective.
The new attempt to intensify animosity may
have a connection with coming military operations of which there
have been some indications but no confirmation.
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SOVIET UNION
2. Fuel shipments for Soviet Far East sharply increased:
the 1952
plan has been increased 60 percent over 1951.
Comment: This is evidence of the increasing
importance of the Lena River as a 'transportation artery for the Yakutsk
area and of the city as a distribution center,. It also underscores the
importance of the mining and timber enterprises of Dalstroy, the MVD
construction enterprise in the Soviet Far East.
The increased plan for river traffic follows
the completion in November 1950 of the strategic Baikal-Amur-Magistral
rail line connecting the Trans-Siberian Railway with the Lena.
FAR EAST
3. Soviet air unit at new base in central Manchuria:
la Soviet air detachment at Tungfeng,
120 miles northeast of Mukden. On the same
day, six Soviet MIG-15's landed at Tungfeng.
"Three transports, probably of the Soviet 9th
AirMiity, made snuttie flights from Mukden and Anshan to Tungfeng
between 16 and 23 April.
Comment: These developments suggest that
a Soviet air unit, equipped with MIG-15's is now based at Tungfeng. The
only Soviet MIG-15's previously known to be based outside of the Dairen
and .Antung area of Manchuria were in a small unit at Anshan, which may
include the aircraft involved in the move to Tungfeng. This group has
been associated with night interception over Korea.
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Tungfeng was reportedly reconditioned in 1951.
The basing of a Soviet air unit there may signify Russian interest in the
protection of potential targets in central Manchuria, such as the important
hydro-eclectric installation near Kirin.
� SOUTH ASIA
4. Nehru condemns United Nations attitude toward Tunisian case:
Prime Minister Nehru)
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condemning
the UN position on the Tunisian case.
Nehru appeals to member nations to oppose the subordination of dis-
cussions to the convenience of the great powers. He reportedly declares
that the United Nations will meet the same fate as the League of Nations
unless its member states "unite under the banner of justice."
Comment: Nehru apparently
formalizes the uniformly adverse South Asian public opinion on the United
Nations' failure to consider the Tunisian case.
This is the second recent instance in which
high Indian officials have suggested that the future of the United Nations
is uncertain and that its existence may be brief. (
5. India will need extensive external assistance in 1952-53:
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Ambassador Bowles reports that India's need 3.3(h)(2)
for external assistance during the comingfiscal
year will be between 260 and 285 million dollars,
and that all but about 25 million must come from
the United States.
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He states that the present Indian Government
is unlikely to survive if it fails to meet the goals of its current five-year
plan, adding that no one in New Delhi believes these goals can be met
without foreign aid.
Comment: The above figures emphasize again
the magnitude of the task facing the Indian Government in achieving eco-
nomic stability. They also suggest that last year's 190 million dollar
loan to India for the purchase of wheat was merely the first of a series
of similar requests to be expected in the future.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Israel seeks British loan to meet oil payments:
"a six
million pound loan to enable Israel to meet its
sterling obligations to the Shell Oil Company
during the next few months. The request is given urgency by a Shell
Company decision that it cannot grant further credit for the distribution
of oil products in Israel beyond 30 April.
The American Ambassador in London states
that Britain will probably refuse the requested loan since its financial
position is critical and such a loan would further antagonize the Arabs.
The British also believe that Israel has sufficient dollars to meet its
financial obligations to the Shell Company.
Comment: Britain turned down a similar
request for a loan in February. Israel's serious financial situation is
underlined by its concurrent request to the United States to make avail-
able in advance several million dollars of MSA funds to meet its immedi-
ate dollar crisis.
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7. Egypt may take Suez dispute to UN:
Prime Minister
Hilali Pasha may take the Anglo-Egyptian dis-
pute to the United Nations if he decides that
"negotiations with the British are fruitless."
Comment: In 1947, Egypt tried without
success to obtain a Security Council decision against Britain. Any new
attempt by the Egyptian Government to obtain a UN solution of the dispute
would probably be made in the General Assembly.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. France cannot again expect UN support for its Tunisian policy:
any appearance of reneging on the promises
of reform in Tunisia, any resort to force, or
even over-harsh repression of demonstrations
would cause the Tunisian question to be raised again in the Security Council
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the French delegation was morally
isolated during the recent Security Council action, and even Britain's
support was tinged with embarrassment and mental reservations. The
feelings of all UN groups ranged from open to moderate disapproval,
"never any sympathy or approval."
Comment: The Quai d' Orsar s recommenda-
tions for reform have been drastically revised, and no concessions to
Tunisian desires for autonomy are now envisaged.
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9. Adenauer blames.Schuman for Saar accord failure:
Charicelloi 'Adenauer. has asserted privately 3.3(h)(2)
tharrrenchlpreign Minister Schuman agreed
in(their_March corrversations that the Saar
leNslaiure to be elected this fall should decide
whether the economic union with France should be Maintained or allowed
to "vanish in some sort;cir Europeanization." 3.3(h)(2)
$����
Comment:
Adenauer and Schuman, whose position in
the French Cabinet is insecure, both seem to have conceded more than
their legislatures would permit. Adenauer agreed to the Saar's political
separation from Germany, and Schuman to a review by the Saar legislature
of the economic union.
The French are willing to discuss no more than
the political future of the territory, and Schuman recently promised the
Council of the Republic that France would continue to insist on maintenance
of the 1950 economic conventions with the Saar.
Adenauer told the Bundestag on 23 April that
the minimum French demands left little hope for French-Germannegoti-
ations at this time.
LA TIN AMERICA
10. Comment on possible disturbances in Ecuador this week-end:
Reports from Quito indicate that this week-end
may be a crisis point in the stormy Ecuadoran election campaign. Rumors
that several army leaders, including the Minister of Defense may attempt
a revolution today are now added to the virtually certain prospect of major
street clashes when the controversial presidential candidate Velasco
Marra arrives in Quito.
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The withdrawal on 20 April of the left-wing
coalition candidate and the resignation of the entire cabinet on 23 April
have increased the likelihood of serious disturbances.
President Gab o Plaza is continuing his efforts
to maintain order and insure an orderly election. His efforts may fail,
however, unless he can persuade the army high command and the adamantly
anti- Velasco Socialists to observe constitutional procedures.
11. Chilean Foreign Minister fears Bolivian crisis affects South American
stability:
\the crisis might
_I worsen and that he has unconfirmed information
that Paraguay is about to align itself with "the La Paz-Buenos Aires axis,"
which "would dangerously compromise the existence of the last two democ-
racies in this part of the world, Chile and Uruguay."
Comment: Chilean and Peruvian officials have
expressed fear thak any new disorders in Bolivia might eventually spread
to their countries. The Brazilian Government believes that the new
Bolivian regime is not sufficiently stable to prevent another coup.
An Argentine newspaper reported on 24 April
that the Paraguayan Government had uncovered a revolutionary plot and
had deported at least 40 persons accused of being opposition leaders.
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