CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/05/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02684302
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 28, 1952

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SECUBTY INFORMATION
28 May 1952
Copy No. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CI- � S.
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NEXT FT:VIEW DATE:
MAK HR 70-2
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Office of Current IntelligenceATL:
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECUR1 INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Embassy Moscow expects Soviet harassment in Berlin to stop short
of provocation (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Chinese forces in Korea to increase offensive capabilities (page 3).
3. Far East Command asserts Communists possess overwhelming
air superiority (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. France conditions further air base grants on full US support in
North Africa (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Comment on East German retaliation for signing of contractual
agreement (page 5).
6. Latest Soviet note evokes critical response in West Germany (page 5).
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GENERAL
1. Embassy Moscow expects Soviet harassment in Berlin to stop short of
provocation:
The US Embassy in Moscow estimates that
Soviet harassing tactics may be expected to
stop at a point where the USSR believes that
going further could provoke actual hostilities
involving Soviet and Western forces.
Embassy officials point out, however, that
the Soviet Union doubtless considers that much could be done to render
the Western situation in Berlin unsatisfactory by a succession of creep-
ing restrictions, none of which might be expected to appear in itself
important enough for strong Western counter-measures.
The Embassy concludes that the USSR is
probably preparing to exploit these possibilities "with great energy and
Impudence,"
FAR EAST
2. Chinese forces in Korea to increase offensive capabilities:
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Comment:
several Chinese units in the forward area have al-
ready accumulated heavy stocks of petroleum and ammunition. A general
supply build-up in the forward area, if achieved, would increase the capa-
bility for an offensive of major proportions.
3. Far East Command asserts Communists possess overwhelming air
superiority:
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3.3(h)(2)
The Far East Command on 27 May estimated 3.3(h)(2)
that the enemy has a total of 1,115 aircraft
massed in Manchuria and that this overwhelm-
ng superiority gives him a major offensive
capabtilty. The home ases of UN F-86's, as well as the headquarters
of both our ground and air forces in Korea, are well within the combat
radius of the 350 jet and 35 piston fighters based at Antung, Tatungkou,
Takushan and Sinuiju. Only a few miles farther inland on the Anshan-
Mukden airfields, 30 light bombers, 240 jeeand 85 piston fighters are
In position to provide support as well as additional shock power for a
striking force.
Although there are no indications of an im-
pending air offensive, FECOM notes that the Communists have sufficient
aircraft, personnel, air facilities and logistic support to launch an of-
fensive without warning in which UN planes, crowded on Kimpo and Suwon
airfields,would quite possibly sustain more than 50 percent destruction
from the initial attack. Such losses would necessitate forfeiture of offen-
sive aerial superiority in favor of defense tactics.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. France conditions further air base grants on full US support in North Mrica:
According to a high Foreign Office official, 3.3(h)(2)
France will not consider granting the United
States base rights in Algeria and Tunisia if
assurances are not received of complete
American confidence in its North African policy.
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France expects unconditional American support
for the reforms which it is ready to institute in Tunisia and Morocco.
Comment: Faced with international criticism
of its action in North Africa, France has also resorted to other pressure
tactics, such as suggesting the possibility of withdrawal from the United
Nations if that organization decides to discuss the Tunisian question.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Comment on East German retaliation for signing of contractual agreement:
The reactions of the East German Government
to the signing of the Allied-West German contractual agreement are of the
kind and magnitude anticipated, and must at the moment be regarded as
only potentially explosive. The months-long propaganda build-up against
the approval of the contractual agreement portended some vigorous reaction
by the East German Government; it has, however, made it clear that the
new border decrees are not irrevocable.
This suggests that the primary objective of the
East German and Soviet Governments is still to block or delay the con-
tractual agreement, the European Defense Community, and any form of
European unity.
6. Latest Soviet note evokes critical response in West Germany:
West German politicians are greeting the
24 May Soviet note with skepticism, calling
it a "clumsy and ill-advised" attempt to con-
ceal inadequate Soviet policies. One leading
member of the Federal coalition states that besides being unacceptable to
the coalition parties, the note deprives the opposition Social Democrats
of an important part of their arguments against Chancellor Adenauer's
foreign policies.
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American officials in Bonn observe that for
the first time on such an important development, the Social Democrats
are maintaining an embarrassed silence.
Comment; These German comments suggest
that Moscow has blundered in its campaign to win support in West Ger many
against ratification of the contractual agreement. Whether or not ratifi-
cation by Germany is delayed by time-consuming Allied-Russian talks will
probably depend upon the support which can be built up in West Germany
for such talks.
The failure of the note to offer any constructive
suggestions for German unification, its propagandistic tone and its favor-
able references to the Potsdam agreement, will tend to dampen German
enthusiasm. for Allied-Russian discussions.
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