CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/04/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064582
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 13, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
13 April 1952
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Copy No,
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSFIEP
CLASS. CHAN3ED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HE
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Sino-Soviet agreement on military equipment disclosed (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Early Communist offensive in Korea possible (page 3).
3. Viet Minh stresses guerrilla operations in Tonkin (page 4).
4. Rival Communist factions in Burma agree to collaborate (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Indian Government agrees to continue negotiations on Kashmir page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Mossadeq accuses British of election interference (page 6).
7. Egypt facing serious financial difficulties (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslavia threatens annexation of Trieste Zone B (page 7).
9. Comment on 1952 Czechoslovak-Soviet trade agreement (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Sim-Soviet agreement on military equipment disclosed:
the Soviet Union
agreed to supply weapons valued at 1. 4billion
rubles (350 million dollars at the of-
ficial rate of exchange) to Communist China
between July 1951 and May of this year.
The weapons include 500 artillery pieces, 290
medium tanks and armored vehicles, 780 fighter planes, 54 bombers,
and anti-aircraft equipment.
China agreed to pay 1.15 billion rubles in raw
materials, gold and foreign exchange during 1952. The remaining 250
million rubles are to be a Soviet credit to China covering the value of the
planes supplied. The planes are to be returned to the USSR after the
Korean conflict, with China paying for destroyed aircraft.
Comment: The report is quite plausible and
fairly consistent with general information on the increased amount of
Soviet military equipment available to China over the past nine months.
The alleged reimbursement terms -- 1.15
billion rubles or almost 300 million dollars during 1952 -- would put a
heavy but not impossible burden on China. Its gold and foreign exchange
resources are depleted, but revenues from current exports can be al-
located for the purchase of military equipment Total Chinese Communist
revenues from exports in 1951 have been estimated at some 700 million
dollars, the bulk coming from deliveries to the USSR and Orbit countries.
FAR EAST
2. Early Communist offensive in Korea possible:
Developments along the front in Korea may
indicate Chinese Communist preparations for
an offensive to take place some time after this
week.
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at least two armies may be moving up to the line, that some
tillery elements have been displaced forward, and that com-
mand organization of forward artillery units has been changed to permit
more effective tactical control.
These developments could also mean either a
routine rotation of certain front line units or anticipation of a UN spring
offensive.
Comment: Evidence is still too tenuous to
establish firm conclusions on enemy intentions. Earlier reports of an
impending attack indicated that a limited offensive might be planned for
the eastern sector; recent enemy reconnaissance and target selection in
the west, however, suggest that the offensive, if it materializes, will
be on a broader front.
3. Viet Minh stresses guerrilla operations in Tonkin:
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The Viet Minh high command is striving to 3.3(h)(2)
keep its infiltrated regiments in the Tonkin
delta until the rainy season, when it is expected
that the French will be forced to relax their
pressure, according to a reliable source.
Viet Minh units north of the delta have the mils-,
sion of diverting French troops from current clearing operations and
may undertake a limited offensive to reduce the size of the French-held
area.
Comment: The flooding of the delta during
the summer rains, while curtailing the operations of both the French and
Viet Minh, is more harmful to the French in that it handicaps their air
and armor capabilities more drastically than it does the Viet Minh's
guerrilla warfare.
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Recent reports state that the Viet Minh forces
north of the delta, comprising more than two battle-worn divisions are
regrouping.
4. Rival Communist factions in Burma agree to collaborate:
the chiefs of the two insurgent Communist
parties in Burma have now composed their
long-standing differences. An agreement
reached in December calls for cessation of armed conflict, collaboration
in fighting the government and efforts to merge into a single Communist
party.
Comment: Personal rivalries rather than
ideological incompatibility have in the past precluded collaboration or
union of the two Communist groups.
Reports have been received that Communist
China has specified a settlement of the factional dispute as a prerequisite
for substantial material aid.
SOUTH ASIA
5. Indian Government agrees to continue negotiations on Kashmir:
The Government of India has informed UN
representative Graham that it is willing to
continue negotiations on the Kashmir issue. It
states that is has no objection to participation
in e negotiations by Admiral Nimitz, plebiscite administrator designate,
provided his impartiality in arranging for a subsequent plebiscite is not
prejudiced.
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Comment: India's agreement to Graham's
suggestion practically assures that negotiations will be continued. It
does not necessarily increase the likelihood that they will be successful.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Mossadeq accuses British of election interference:
Ambassador that despite British efforts to slow
the elections and thus delay formal convocation
of the Majlis, he hoped that a formal meeting
could be held in about two weeks. He asserted that eighty percent of the
deputies were the "choice of the people" and that in spite of British inter-
ference only a few "British stooges" have been elected.
Mossadeq stated that he did not know what at-
titude the new body would take toward his government, but that the Majlis
would immediately be faced with making decisions of a very grave nature.
Comment: National Front rigging of the election
has slowed the balloting and prevented assembly of the Majlis.
Mossadeq's anti-British diatribes suggest that
he will continue to depend primarily upon this line to gain support for
his policies. The new strongly pro-National Front Majlis may be ex-
pected to widen the gap between Iran and the West.
7. Egypt facing serious financial difficulties:
In spite of Britain's recent release of ten mil-
lion pounds sterling to Egypt, Prime Minister
Hilali Pasha faces a deteriorating financial
situation. Egypt's rapid consumption of its
S er in reserves a e rate of eight million pounds per month since
1 Ianuary places British currency "virtually in the category of hard
currency" as far as Egypt is concerned.
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There is evidence already that the government's
finances are facing an increasing strain because of the diminished inter-
national demand for Egyptian cotton, the burden of governmental subsi-
dization of living costs, and the loss of income from taxes resulting
from the general trade recession.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslavia threatens annexation of Trieste Zone B:
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;he Yugoslav Government plans
further integration or even annexation of Zone B
of Trieste, if it becomes convinced that the
current London talks on Italian participation in
the administration of Zone A violate the relevant provisions of the Italian
Peace Treaty.
Comment: Yugoslav Assistant Foreign Minister
Mates informed the American Charge on 1 April that his government, as
a consequence of the London talks, might be forced to take still further
steps formalizing the present division of the territory. Mates admitted
that such an action would prejudice a satisfactory settlement of the
problem.
9. Comment on 1952 Czechoslovak-Soviet trade agreement:
The 1952 trade agreement with the Soviet
Union announced by Czech Minister of Foreign Trade Gregor on 8 April,
will increase the strain on Czech industrial facilities and decrease the
likelihood that Czechoslovakia can trade with the West, one of the baits
for Western business men at the Moscow Economic Conference.
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Gregor states that total Czech trade with the
USSR will be 25 percent higher this year than in 1951L,
ie overall value
of such trade in 1952 will probably be 540 to 580 million dollars, or more
than double that of 1948. Should this rate of development continue the
total trade between the two countries will be considerably larger than
the levels set in the four-year agreement of November 1950.
Indications are that the commodity pattern
will remain the same, with the Soviet Union exporting raw materials
and semi-finished products and Czechoslovakia providing finished goods.
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