CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/03/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046564
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 19, 1952

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19 March 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETEsi
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
USSR
I. Embassy Moscow comments on Soviet proposal for German treaty
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Situation of Chinese Nationalists in Burma reviewed (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. British military mission to Israel planned (page 3).
4. Comment on arrest of two Egyptian Wafd leaders (page 4).
5. Greek Government's attempt to restore proportional electoral
system blocked (page 4).
6. Reopening of the Bulgarian-Turkish border suggested (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. West German Protestant chief to remove neutralist leaders age 6).
8. De Gaulle reportedly willing to cooperate with other French
parties (page 6).
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USSR
Embassy Moscow comments on Soviet proposal for German treaty:
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The US Embassy in Moscow believes that
the Soviet proposal for a German peace treaty
is designed simply to delay West German re-
armament and integration with the West.
Seeing Soviet control over East Germany as essential to Russian ob-
jectives in Europe, the Embassy does not concur with the line of reason-
ing that the Soviet proposal might mean a willingness to relinquish this
control.
FAR EAST
2. Situation of Chinese Nationalists in Burma reviewed:
3.3(h)(2)
There are 9,000 to 10,000 Chinese Nationalist
troops in northeastern Burma,
/all but 2,000 are under Li M"-
ug morale is currently "not too low," it is difficult to 3.3(h)(2)
maintain. The Thai have not supplied new arms or ammunition, rein-
forcements from Formosa have been negligible, and there are no plans
to cross the border into Yunnan.
�
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. British military mission to Israel planned:
The Foreign Ministers of Great Britain and
Israel, during a conference on 11 March,
agreed to initiate diplomatic discussions on
a proposed British military mission to Israel.
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Israeli Foreign Minister Sharrett asked
Foreign Secretary Eden for obsolete military equipment, specifically
light artillery and trainer aircraft, either as a gift or on a long-term
loan basis. Sharrett also proposed closer economic relations.
Comment: Israel has been fearful lest
possible Arab participation in the proposed Middle East Command
might act to its disadvantage. It has, therefore, been showing increased
Interest in effecting closer ties with the West. Any British mission to
Israel will, on the other hand, arouse Arab suspicions of Western
motives.
4. Comment on arrest of two Egyptian Wafd leaders:
The arrest of former Egyptian Minister of
Interior Serageddin and the former Wald Minister of Social Affairs
indicates that Prime Minister Hilali has now seriously embarked on
his clean-up campaign. According to reliable information from Cairo,
the arrests were made after a special cabinet meeting, and it is planned
to exile both men to their home villages.
The action against Serageddin, the influential
Secretary General of the Wafd, makes it almost certain that Hilali will
now be strongly opposed overtly and covertly by the well-organized
majority party. Hilali's ability to handle the Wald depends not only
on the temporary maintenance of martial law, but also ultimately on
achieving a settlement with Britain which is acceptable to the people.
5. Greek Government's attempt to restore proportional electoral system
blocked:
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
Acting Prime Minister Venizelos' recent
attempt to force a bill through Parliament
which would restore the proportional electoral
system has been temporarily defeated, ac-
erican Ambassador.
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Despite Venizelos' assertion to the contrary,
the Ambassador is convinced that Venizelos, the Palace, and Constantine
Rendis, a leader in Plastiras' EPEK Party, were intent on having the
law passed quickly; and a fait accompli was avoided only because Prime
Minister Plastiras heard of the move and the American Embassy published
its strong objections.
Comment: The American Embassy in Athens
has long felt that the proportional electoral system favored by Venizelos
and many Greek politicians would bring back the welter of small parties
which has effectively hindered recovery in Greece. Accordingly, the
Ambassador has been urging the employment of the simple majority
system, which would favor General Papagos in any future election.
6. Reopening of the Bulgarian-Turkish border suggested:
\ the Turkish
\ Government has recently submitted new proposals
to the Bulgarian Government for the reopening of the Bulgarian-Turkish
border.
Comment: No further information has been
received concerning the negotiations
The Turkish-Bulgarian border was ordered
closed by Turkish authorities on 8 November as a result of difficulties
arising from Bulgaria's refusal to readmit "gypsies" who had crossed
into Turkey on the strength of forged visas. Although a reopening of the
border is well within the realm of possibility, it seems doubtful that
Bulgaria, with its labor shortage, will be willing to allow the emigration
of able-bodied Turks to continue.
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WESTERN .EUROPE.-
7. West German Protestant chief to remove neutralist leaders:
Martin Niemoeller and Gustav Heinemann,
both leading neutralists, are about to be
repudiated by other high officials in the West
German Evangelical Church, according to a
reliable church source. The source states confidentially that Niemoeller
will shortly be ousted from the church council9 and that Heinemann's
resignation as Evangelical Synod President is anticipated.
This action stems from the desire of Protestant
circles to dissociate the church from the remilitarization issue which has
been jeopardizing church unity, and to clarify the church's relationship to
politics.
3.3(h)(2)
Bishop Dibelius, head of the Evangelical Church,
does not believe that Niemoeller will support the establishment of a sepa-
rate state church in East Germany.
Comment: This new development had been
partly presaged by recent Protestant attacks on Heinemann in Parliament.
It will have the effect of weakening the appeal of neutralism in West
Germany.
8. De Gaulle reportedly willing to cooperate with other French parties:
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
General De Gaulle's true position is not so
uncompromising as indicated in his statements
to the press on 10 March.
De Gaulle will allow 3.3(h)(2)
members of his party to join a coalition government under a non-Gaullist
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leader like Rene Mayer or Paul Reynaud, provided constitutional changes
within three months are promised. The only changes he will insist upon
are the restoration of legislative power to the upper house of Parliament,
authority for the Cabinet to dissolve the Assembly, and the right of the
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President and Cabinet to initiate legislation.
Comment: In view of De Gaulle's recent
leniency toward RPF deputies who broke party discipline over the investi-
ture of Premier Pinay, practical politicians among his lieutenants can
be expected to push for additional compromise with political realities.
While a rightist coalition offers the best chance
for political and economic stability in France, this solution is precluded
for the time being by the fundamental opposition of many centrist deputies.
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