CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/07/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02740746
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 28, 1951

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28 July 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
[.1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS 8
NEXT REVIEW DATE: Cloof
AUTH: H 70-
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
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GENERAL
Yugoslav official expects Communist concessions in Korean cease-
fire negotiations (page 3).
2. Crashed MIG-15 recovered off Korean coast (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Indonesia wants to abrogate Netherlands-Indonesian Union
(page 4).
NEAR EAST
4. Prince Tallal rumored to be en route to Jordan (page 5).
5. Egyptians continue to discuss relaxing of Suez Canal restrictions
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. Question of Germany's political status may delay defense contribut on
(page 6).
8. French consider cut-back in defense program (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Yugoslav fficial expects Communist concessions in Korean cease-
fire negotiations:
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Yugoslav UN delegate Bebler remains
optimistic that current negotiations
in Korea will result eventually in a
cease-fire. He believes that the
Communists� desire for a cease-fire will induce them to give in as
regards the 38th Parallel demarcation line and the withdrawal of foreign
troops, but he is not optimistic at..ut achieving UN observation in
North Korea.
Bebler estimates that the Communists
are insisting on the withdrawal of all foreign troops largely for its
propaganda appeal in the Far East, while the USSR in fact will want to
keep the US Army pinned down in Korea and to this end will make certain
that negotiations for a general settlement are prolonged.
With regard to Soviet-Chinese
Communist relations� Bebler believ $ that additional tensions will
arise over whose influence should prevail in North Korea,
Comment g Communist agenda con-
cessions regarding the question of troop withdrawal indicate a continued
desire to negotiate a cease-fire. However, Communist demands for the
withdrawal of foreign troops cannot be regarded solely as propaganda.
It has been a persistent Soviet aim in all areas to secure Western troop
withdrawals so as to remove a stabilizing factor and facilitai.7 the
advance of Communism.
2. Crashed MIG-15 recovered off Korean coast.'
Salvage om,_,rations conducted by UN
naval forces have resulted in the
recovery of all the principal parts
of a MIG45 airplane that crashed
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offshore west of Pyongyang.
Comment: This will afford the US Air Force
its first opportunity to conduct a technical study of the major components,
accessories and equipment of the MIG-15, although several ,parts of an
engine and tail have been examined previously. While the airplane
will undoubtedly be in poor condition as a result of the crash and ex-
posure to salt water,
it is anticipated that many details heretofore
unknown can now be determined,
FAR EAST
Indonesia wants to abrogate Netherlands-Indonesian Union:
Indonesia has requested the Netherlands
to open discussions looking to a revision
of the Netherlands-Indonesian agreements
signed in 1949. The official designated
to negotiate with the Dutch told the US Ambassador in Djakarta that
he will try to persuade the Dutch to accept a bilateral treaty in place
of the present Netherlands-Indonesian Union and to obtain the elimination
of certain Dutch priv4egesl.
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The Indorfesfan official also anticipates
approaching the etherlands authorities on the question of Netherlands
New Guinea., He feels that inevitably this area must pass into Indonesian
hands and that the sooner this fact is recognized by the Dutch, the
sooner amicable relations can be achieve&
Comment: There has been increasing
agitation in Indonesia over the past six months to abrogate the Union
and substitute a bilateral treaty negotiated by "two sovereign nations. "
The Indonesians are determined to break the Union unilaterally, if the
Dutch fail to agree to such an arrangement.
Indonesian demands for sovereignty over
Netherlands New Guinea have not ceased since negotiations over the
istwe broke down in Decembers, 1950. Dutch-Indonesian relations
will remain strained until a settlement of this problem is reached.
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NEAR EAST
4. Prince Tallal rumored to be en route to Jordan:
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Prince TalIal has disappeared from a
sanito.rium in Switzerland and may be
attempting to return to Jordan, according
to a report that has reached the US Mi4isthr
in Amman. It is generally feared that his arrival in Jordan at this(
point would precipitate a serious internal crisis, as his name is
being utilized as a rallying point for forces hostile to the British
and the late King.
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Egyptians continue to discuss relaxing of Suez Canal restrictions:
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The Egyptian delegate to the UN has
mentioned in private conversations
the desire of his country to drop
the Suez Canal restrictions if it obtained
adequate strategic, political and economic
"compensation, The Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs has again
told the US Ambassador in It Ciro that Egypt could relax the restrictions
considerably but could not abolish them.
Comment: One means of "compensation"
that the Egyptians have suggested is the evacuation by Israel of the
southern part of Palestine adjacent to the Gulf of Aqaba, where Israel
has been planning to build a port A guarantee that Israel would not
use for aggressive purposes any of the oil that might transit the
Suez Canal to the refinery at Haifa has also been mentioned. Neither
of these proposals would be satisfactory to Israel. The Egyptians
are searching for some face-saving formula, but to date they have
only hinted at their willingness to remove the restrictions.
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EASTERN EUROPE
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WESTERN EUROPE
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QueStion of Germani's political status may delay defense contribution;
The French Government had not expected
to consider the problems involved in the
creation of a new political status for
Germany until after a decision was reached
on a German military contributi n, according to the Political Advisor
to the French High Commissioner in Bonn. The French expect that
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the German contribution to Western 'defense will be determined by
early fall, thus permitting a decision ,on contractual relations
with the Germans by the end of the year.
High Commissioner McCloy has pointed
out, however, that it is essential to reach definitive political con-
clusions on Germany at the prospective meeting of US, UK and
French Foreign Ministers in September and at the forthcoming NATO
Council meeting.
Comment: The Germans are strongly
opposed to concluding military agreements until they know fairly
definitely what changes in their political status are proposed Agree-
ment could be reached on the military question prior to the con-
elusion of contractual agreements given a firm Allied declaration of
intentions in regard to Germany's political status. The French
Government seems increasingly convinced of German good faith with
respect to the European Army, and can be expepted to favor rapid
agreement on political rights without, however, consenting to a
restoration of complete sovereignty until the conclusion of a peace
treaty.
French consider cut-back in defense program:
French officiags are increasingly skeptical
of the fruitfulness of the current NATO
hearings on sharing the defense burden
and consequently believe French defense
plans must be either cut back or programmed over a longer period,
Any slow-down would affect production plans rather than French
commitments regarding Indochina, bases, or manpower. These
officials claim that none of the other NATO countries is undertaking
anr�hdditional defense effort involving any real risk to its economy,
and that therefore France is assuming a disproportionately large
burden.
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The French still strongly prefer a
multilateral NATO approach to rearmament planning, including
detailed figures on US assistance; they have consented to continue
bilateral talks with the US only because no arrangements for multi-
lateral discussions have been made.
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Comment: Growing inflationary pressures
In France, which the prospective weak coalition government is not
likely to control, threaten the fairly ambitious French defense
program. The last government warned the US that France would
be unable to fulfill its commitments in Indochina and Western Europe
without fuller cooperation from all the NATO countries. Both the
US Embassy and the ECA Mission in Paris recently deplored the
"serious misunderstandings" between the US and French adminis-
trations, which had already resulted in a "sharp deterioration"
of the mutual confidence necessary for obtaining the desired level
and effectiveness of French defense strength.
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