CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/07/17

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
02001996
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RIPPUB
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U
Document Page Count: 
14
Document Creation Date: 
April 15, 2019
Document Release Date: 
April 22, 2019
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Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
July 17, 1951
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15603284].pdf484.05 KB
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Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 lur 17 Suly 1951 Copy No, C2- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 7 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S NEXT REVIEW DATE: AUTH: R PATE 12;71116nEwEn: Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 201 /192 CO2001996 SUMMARY GENERAL 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) FAR EAST De Lattre believes Viet Minh has been seriously weakened (Paae 4),. 3.3(h)(2) SOUTH ASIA ,t Si 4. New tensions developing between India and Pakistan (page 5). 'I 17( ApArI 3.3(h)(2) NEAR NEAR EAST/AFRICA 60 Swiss urge Iranians to come to termwwith British (page 7. Egyptian Foreign Minister threatens to denounce Anglo-Egyptian Treaty (page 7). EASTERN EUROPE P(000( 1')el 8. Rumanian border evacuation reveals internal security apprehenSion (page 7). WESTERN EUROPE 9. West Germans seek equal status through European Army talks (page 8). 3.3(h)(2) Use of Trieste as center. for Yugoslav military aid program would harm US-Italian relations (page 9). Wit 57 4, 111G-0 -yrALi 12. Portuguese Supreme Court approves candidacy of oppoSition-leader (page 10). Foceruaili_ **** 11. Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.3(h � Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 TO.F " GENERAL 3.5(c) FAR EAST 3.3(h - 3 - Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 )(2) (2) 3.5(c) h)(2) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 _Vier lit" 3.5(c) 3.3( a 3. De Lattre believes Viet Mirth has been seriously weakened 3.3(h)(2) General de Lattre, stating that Viet Minh losses in the Tonkin fighting of late May have proved to be much higher than originally believed estimates one year to recuperate. 3.3(h)(2) reports state that three of the Viet Minh's five elite divisions have been ordered to reorganize at one-eighth less than normal strength. He believes that the Viet Minh cannot organize an attack of any consequence within the next sig months, and is faced with the alternatives of a "cease- fire," a request for large-scale troop support from the Chinese Cornmu- fists, or exclusively guerrilla warfare. Comment The rainy season (from Tune to August) would be marked by a decrease in Viet Minh activity, with a resumption of heavy attacks� in September, The above estimate is far more optimistic than any which has yet been received. The reference to a cease-fire as an alternative open to the Viet Minh suggests that current rumors of an impending French-Viet Minh truce may have some foundation. Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 rtfleij KEPI' SOUTH ASIA 4. New tensions developing between India and Pakistan: 3.3(h)(2) Since its 2 Suly complaint to the United Nations regarding Pakistani breaches of the cease-fire agreement in Kashmir, India has been attempting to convince UN Representative Frank Graham of Pakistan's aggressIve intentions in that area and has taken several steps to place Pakistan militarily and propagandistically on the defensive. A few bellicose statements made by Pakistanis concerning the establish- ment of a Constituent Assembly in Indian- h ld Kashmir have been used by the Indians as an excuse to move practically the whole of their armed forces up to the Pakistani border. Pakistan has countered with a series of defensive troop movements. It has cancelled all military leaves and has placed all civil defense forces under military control. US and British representatives in South Asia are disturbed over the possibility of war between the two countries. Comment: India is obviously conducting a war of nerves against Pakistan, possibly hoping that the latter will commit an aggressive act while Graham is in the stibcontinent. The Indian Government has no intention of openirsitself to charges of aggression, however. Both the Pakistani Government and Army know that aggressive actions on their part would lead to war and probably to the eventual dissolution of Pakistan. Both will seek to prevent such actions though each will attempt to display a bold front toward the enemy. Between them, the government and the army have the capability to keep the Pakistani people and the tribesmen in hand, and it is believed that they will take appropriate measures, to do so. 5 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.3(h)( Approved for Releasekgrp2 CO2001996 NEAR.EAS/AFRICA 3.5(c) TOP S T Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 11**OP HET 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) . Egyptian Foreign Minister threatens to denounce Anglo-Egyptian Treaty: The Egyptian Foreign Minister has informed US Ambassador Caffrey that, unless something unexpected happens in Anglo-Egyptian negoti- ations on the defense of the Suez Canal Zone before the mid-August adjournment of the Egyptian Parliament, he will announce the end of the Anglo-Egyptian talks and denounce the 1936 treaty with the UK. Comment: The British Ambassador, to whom the Foreign Minister made the same threat, considers that there is some possibility that King Farouk, who recognizes the importance of obtaining British cooperation in the defense of the Suez Canal area, will_ disavow such a. move. It is, however, not unlikely that anger over -the'forthcoming Security Council attempts to have the Egyptian Suez Canal restrictions lifted, plus a resurgence of nationalism generated by events in Iran, will encourage Egypt to denounce the treaty. EASTERN EUROPE 3.3(h)(2) 8. Rumanian border evacuation reveals internal security apprehension: The US Legation in Bucharest reports that the mass evacuation,from the Rumanian-Yugoslav border which tgogan about 15 June apparently ceased, at least temporarily, during the econd week in July. Western observers in Bucharest now believe that he number evacuated did not exceed 20,000 to 30, 000. The Yugoslav hargrestimates that 7, 000 of the Yugoslav minority were included in he total. � Comment: Cessation of the border area vacuation strengthens the conclusion that this move does not indicate 3.3(h)(2) reparation for immediate hostilities. The apparently selective evacu- tion of Yugoslays, other minority groups and hostile peasants strongly uggests internal security considerations. Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) Apir�:odif.;)r Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 ET 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) leVESTERN EUROPE 9. West Germans seek equ9,1 status through European Army talks: 3.3(h)(2) While "appreciable progress" continues at the Paris European Army talks and while the delegations are confident that an agreed re ettrt will be ready next week, the German delegates are using the occasion tush vigorously the objective of German equality. They insist that changes must be made in Germany's political status before the Federal Republic can sign the projected European defense treaty. Furthermore, they are protesting the French proposal that German-rfxruitirgfor the European Army should proceed initially under Allied superiision, on the grounds that this arrangement would constitute discrimination. Comment: Evidence indicates that the Ger- mans will not sign any agreement relating to their armed forces until substantial progress has been made toward political equality for West Germany. 3.3 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 (h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04702 CO2001996 3. 11. TrTse of Trieste as center for Yugoslav military aid program would harm . � VS-Italian relations: 3.3(h)(2) The US Embassy in Rome believes that the use of Zone A as an assembly and processing center for the Yugoslav military aid program would be resented deeply by the Italian public and government, who would interpret it as the establishment of a Yugoslav military base in Trieste. The Embassy agrees there should be no objections to using Trieste's industrial facilities for producing non- military supplies for YugOslaviad It points out, however, that inviting substantial numbers of Yugoslav military personnel into Zone A would affect adversely relations between the US and Italian Governments. Comment: There has been mounting uneasi- ness in Italy that the West's proposed military aid program for 'Yugoslavia might enable the latter to replace Italy as the keystone in NATO Mediter- ranean defense, and Ihat the US and UK are favoring Tito's claims to Trieste in preference to those of Italy. 9 - Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) 3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 12. Portuguese Supreme Court approves candidacy of opposition leader3.3(h)(2) Upon the recommendation of the Council of State, the Portuguese Supreme Court has ruled favorably on the "political eligibility" of oppo- sition leader Vice-Admiral Quintao Meireles, a candidate in the 22 July presidential elections., Professor Rui Luis Comes, a notorious fellow- traveler, has been rejected. Comment The disqualification of Gomes was expected. The 22 Ittly elections will test the popular strength of the Salazar regime, for it will face an election for ,the first time without the tremendous vote-getting appeal of the late Marshal Carmona, Although Quintao Meireles has hardly a chance of defeating the government can- didate, General Craveiro Lopes, he could be the source of considerable embarrassment by causing a noticeable drop in the total vote cast for the Salazar administration. A 71-year old admiral and reportedly a Catholic ' and a moderate Liberal, Quintao Meireles favors even closer ties between Portugal and the US. - 10 - TOISECIfET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 ANA 3 2 lk mere rift 38 ware received 25 mere received. between 1,01 wad 3.529 52 mere arrayed after 1530 J4* 1V1 DOCUMENTNe. NO 1ANGE r4 CLASS ECLASS:1-!i. fS. CF NEXT FVC.,!E.V.: -.L- AUT11.041W.-44 DATElf_ICIT:z.VV:ziAIER S 1 2 3 ter 1530/if 1452/17 15107 la 11658/17 5 MOM 6 1/451347 7 2455/47 8 14,*7 9 after 3-M17 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 7 3 7 1 I 1 1530/17 2 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 3.5(c) 9661.00Z00 Z0/170/6 1.0Z :oseoIoI JOI PeAaiddV a a a a E, tzioult a CaioaCt a Ea/act 4.040 Eaftett a It a a a taiosiCt a la/oc51, xy4s*It C' It a a oafocct ze4p3 c 046T5T a IST/AtT a a 6r/oat a a 6tiot6t P04140:012 th7Parog !-� ta/bott ta/ooCt ta/000: /MAW ta/WIT taice6t Woo6t taioaCt taioogt a It Arke Ca EtifeeCt 9 Ea/CECt 6 Ca/065t Jove t CaAT6T C CapaCt a Wag =fug It kuir, fiz lat0051 404.79 IT Ta/OC6T italra OT taioat 6 Wagt Jew � 9 TaictiEt 1. taior5i =we 2 TaPst R tajoC5T =fug t WoCgt %taus; g taioE6t 444x0 a - Wolitt � T ATV ea cai6t4t OT 04005T anYe -6 ce/oC6-c itouv 9 0a/oC5Tantre L 046= e 9 ozioC6T ansto C ce/oEgt &Duo t ozioC5raoug C Wom gout: a miauSt T 6T/OCCT AVIV 9 61/talt 5 Wor51 =449 6r/OE6T JetPs ? 6t/OCT oxrue a ,.." 6TfoCgt =qv I r4strir Oa f 12014110aus if orpnink ATM" la Potie!Igna - '9661.00Z00 Z0/170/6 1.0Z :oseoIoI JOI.panciJduv Orton Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 602001996 � .LLEtT91L niblished ...�*.114c10JE SUbmitted \I 1514/25 12 after 1525 1516/25., 133505 1340/25 1512/25 27 July 1 after 1530/26 2 cater 1530l26 2 2445/26 * -- 1350/26 3 6 7 a 9 10 12 26 July 28 *Daly 1 5 6 7 8 2 3 4 5 6 31 July 1445/26 1510/26 after 3.530/26 , 1500/26 1 126 /26 ihoo126 1400/26 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 .119stell_ Babeatted 1525/26 3 1445/26 3 after 153026 2 1520/27 13011/e7 1 SI after 1530/27 after 1530/27 after 1530/27 2 1345/27 2 atter 1530/27 2 1500/27 3. 1445/27 3 1445/27 3 1407/28 3 1407/28 3 2445/28 2 1115/28 2 atter 2530/28 2 atter 2530/28 after 1530428 2 otter 2530/40 2 1400/28 2 1415/28 1 14o7/28 3 after 1530/30 3 after 1530/30 3 after 1530/30 3 after 153000 2 atter 1530/30 2 otter 1530/30 3 1115/30 2 1504/30 3 1504/3 3 15opho 3 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996 2- p 3 - It Ze 1131 - 0 81 - 0/11/ * Rad aver total previous day 20 3, Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2001996