CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/07/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02001996
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 17, 1951

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lur
17 Suly 1951
Copy No, C2-
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN -
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
7 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: R
PATE 12;71116nEwEn:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
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FAR EAST
De Lattre believes Viet Minh has been seriously weakened (Paae 4),.
3.3(h)(2)
SOUTH ASIA
,t Si
4. New tensions developing between India and Pakistan (page 5). 'I 17( ApArI
3.3(h)(2)
NEAR NEAR EAST/AFRICA
60 Swiss urge Iranians to come to termwwith British (page
7. Egyptian Foreign Minister threatens to denounce Anglo-Egyptian Treaty
(page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
P(000( 1')el
8. Rumanian border evacuation reveals internal security apprehenSion
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. West Germans seek equal status through European Army talks (page 8).
3.3(h)(2)
Use of Trieste as center. for Yugoslav military aid program would harm
US-Italian relations (page 9). Wit 57 4, 111G-0 -yrALi
12. Portuguese Supreme Court approves candidacy of oppoSition-leader (page 10).
Foceruaili_
****
11.
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GENERAL
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3. De Lattre believes Viet Mirth has been seriously weakened
3.3(h)(2)
General de Lattre, stating that Viet Minh
losses in the Tonkin fighting of late May have
proved to be much higher than originally
believed estimates
one year to recuperate. 3.3(h)(2)
reports state that three of the Viet Minh's five elite divisions have been
ordered to reorganize at one-eighth less than normal strength. He
believes that the Viet Minh cannot organize an attack of any consequence
within the next sig months, and is faced with the alternatives of a "cease-
fire," a request for large-scale troop support from the Chinese Cornmu-
fists, or exclusively guerrilla warfare.
Comment The
rainy season (from Tune to August) would be marked
by a decrease in Viet Minh activity, with a resumption of heavy attacks�
in September, The above estimate is far more optimistic than any which
has yet been received. The reference to a cease-fire as an alternative
open to the Viet Minh suggests that current rumors of an impending
French-Viet Minh truce may have some foundation.
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rtfleij KEPI'
SOUTH ASIA
4. New tensions developing between India and Pakistan:
3.3(h)(2)
Since its 2 Suly complaint to the United
Nations regarding Pakistani breaches of
the cease-fire agreement in Kashmir,
India has been attempting to convince UN
Representative Frank Graham of Pakistan's
aggressIve intentions in that area and has
taken several steps to place Pakistan
militarily and propagandistically on the
defensive. A few bellicose statements
made by Pakistanis concerning the establish-
ment of a Constituent Assembly in Indian-
h ld Kashmir have been used by the Indians
as an excuse to move practically the whole
of their armed forces up to the Pakistani
border. Pakistan has countered with a
series of defensive troop movements. It
has cancelled all military leaves and has placed all civil defense forces
under military control. US and British representatives in South Asia
are disturbed over the possibility of war between the two countries.
Comment: India is obviously conducting a
war of nerves against Pakistan, possibly hoping that the latter will
commit an aggressive act while Graham is in the stibcontinent. The
Indian Government has no intention of openirsitself to charges of
aggression, however. Both the Pakistani Government and Army know
that aggressive actions on their part would lead to war and probably to
the eventual dissolution of Pakistan. Both will seek to prevent such
actions though each will attempt to display a bold front toward the
enemy. Between them, the government and the army have the capability
to keep the Pakistani people and the tribesmen in hand, and it is believed
that they will take appropriate measures, to do so.
5
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NEAR.EAS/AFRICA
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. Egyptian Foreign Minister threatens to denounce Anglo-Egyptian Treaty:
The Egyptian Foreign Minister has informed
US Ambassador Caffrey that, unless something
unexpected happens in Anglo-Egyptian negoti-
ations on the defense of the Suez Canal Zone
before the mid-August adjournment of the Egyptian Parliament, he will
announce the end of the Anglo-Egyptian talks and denounce the 1936 treaty
with the UK.
Comment: The British Ambassador, to whom
the Foreign Minister made the same threat, considers that there is some
possibility that King Farouk, who recognizes the importance of obtaining
British cooperation in the defense of the Suez Canal area, will_ disavow
such a. move. It is, however, not unlikely that anger over -the'forthcoming
Security Council attempts to have the Egyptian Suez Canal restrictions
lifted, plus a resurgence of nationalism generated by events in Iran, will
encourage Egypt to denounce the treaty.
EASTERN EUROPE 3.3(h)(2)
8. Rumanian border evacuation reveals internal security apprehension:
The US Legation in Bucharest reports that the
mass evacuation,from the Rumanian-Yugoslav
border which tgogan about 15 June apparently
ceased, at least temporarily, during the
econd week in July. Western observers in Bucharest now believe that
he number evacuated did not exceed 20,000 to 30, 000. The Yugoslav
hargrestimates that 7, 000 of the Yugoslav minority were included in
he total.
�
Comment: Cessation of the border area
vacuation strengthens the conclusion that this move does not indicate
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reparation for immediate hostilities. The apparently selective evacu-
tion of Yugoslays, other minority groups and hostile peasants strongly
uggests internal security considerations.
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leVESTERN EUROPE
9. West Germans seek equ9,1 status through European Army talks:
3.3(h)(2)
While "appreciable progress" continues at
the Paris European Army talks and while
the delegations are confident that an agreed
re ettrt will be ready next week, the German
delegates are using the occasion tush vigorously the objective of
German equality. They insist that changes must be made in Germany's
political status before the Federal Republic can sign the projected
European defense treaty. Furthermore, they are protesting the French
proposal that German-rfxruitirgfor the European Army should proceed
initially under Allied superiision, on the grounds that this arrangement
would constitute discrimination.
Comment: Evidence indicates that the Ger-
mans will not sign any agreement relating to their armed forces until
substantial progress has been made toward political equality for West
Germany.
3.3
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3.
11. TrTse of Trieste as center for Yugoslav military aid program would harm . �
VS-Italian relations:
3.3(h)(2)
The US Embassy in Rome believes that the
use of Zone A as an assembly and processing
center for the Yugoslav military aid program
would be resented deeply by the Italian public
and government, who would interpret it as the establishment of a Yugoslav
military base in Trieste.
The Embassy agrees there should be no
objections to using Trieste's industrial facilities for producing non-
military supplies for YugOslaviad It points out, however, that inviting
substantial numbers of Yugoslav military personnel into Zone A would
affect adversely relations between the US and Italian Governments.
Comment: There has been mounting uneasi-
ness in Italy that the West's proposed military aid program for 'Yugoslavia
might enable the latter to replace Italy as the keystone in NATO Mediter-
ranean defense, and Ihat the US and UK are favoring Tito's claims to
Trieste in preference to those of Italy.
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12. Portuguese Supreme Court approves candidacy of opposition leader3.3(h)(2)
Upon the recommendation of the Council of
State, the Portuguese Supreme Court has ruled
favorably on the "political eligibility" of oppo-
sition leader Vice-Admiral Quintao Meireles,
a candidate in the 22 July presidential elections.,
Professor Rui Luis Comes, a notorious fellow-
traveler, has been rejected.
Comment The disqualification of Gomes was
expected. The 22 Ittly elections will test the popular strength of the
Salazar regime, for it will face an election for ,the first time without the
tremendous vote-getting appeal of the late Marshal Carmona, Although
Quintao Meireles has hardly a chance of defeating the government can-
didate, General Craveiro Lopes, he could be the source of considerable
embarrassment by causing a noticeable drop in the total vote cast for the
Salazar administration. A 71-year old admiral and reportedly a Catholic '
and a moderate Liberal, Quintao Meireles favors even closer ties between
Portugal and the US.
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