CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/09/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03176563
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: September 26, 1951

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26 September 1951
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
47
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Embassy Moscow comments on Soviet policy in Southeast Asia (page 3).
2. Thailand interested in defense pact with US (page 3).
NEAR EAST
3. Comment on Iranian order to eject British oil technicians (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. High Commissioner McCloy comments on signing of interzonal trade
pact (Daze 4).
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FAR EAST 3.3(h)(2)
Embassy Moscow comments on Soviet policy in Southeast Asia:
In considering Soviet policy toward Southeast
Asia and seeming Chinese Communist pre-
dominance in the area, the US Embassy in Moscow
expresses doubt that the USSR has agreed to any
orma emarca ion o spheres of influence. In the embassy's opinion, it
would be inconsistent with the nature of Stalinism to give free play to Chinese
imperialism and independence and thus permit Communist China to become
co-equal with the USSR in the world-wide Communist hierarchy.
However, the embassy believes that in practice
the primary responsibility for operations and support of Southeast Asian
Communist movements could have devolved upon the Chinese Commtmists.
The Chinese enjoy geographical and tactical advantage and can utilize overseas
Chinese colonies. Recalling the 1949 Asian World Federation of Trade Unions
conference in Peiping, the embassy points out that the "liberation" program
for Southeast Asia was mapped out with reference to the Chinese Canununist
pattern of an armed struggle with peasant support.
Comment: The USSR always prefers to avoid
direct involvement in the "internal affairs" of other countries and, when pos-
sible, to work through indigenous Communist movements. Continuing Soviet
Interest in Southeast Asia is indicated by propaganda attention and by reports
concerning Chinese Communist 4ssistance to guerrilla forces in Indochina and
Burma which frequently make reference to Soviet advisers.
Thailand interested in defense pact with US:
The US Embassy in Bangkok has been informed
that Thailand's National Defense Council is con-
sidering a request to the US for a bilateral de-
fense pact similar to those concluded with the
Philippines, Australia and New Zealand.
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The embassy observes that should the Thai
Government actually make such an approach, the US would be faced with the
problem of avoiding an unsound military commitment without discouraging
Thai confidence in the US. An American refusal possibly would undermine
the Phibun regime, since its strength rests largely on the widespread con-
viction that it has the complete backing of the US.
NEAR EAST
3. Comment on Iranian ordsit213ritish oil technicians:
By ordering the departure before 4 October of
the 300-odd British oil technicians at the Abadan refinery, the government of
Prime Minister Mossadgq indicates its desire finally to end the period of
uncertainty regarding their future status. The order contradicts earlier
reports that the technicians would be allowed to remain in Iran if they signed
individual contracts with the National Iranian Oil Company.
This move indicates that Mossadeq is still suf-
ficiently strong to oppose the British, the Shah and the parliamentary oppo-
sition, which has recently shown signs of weakness and fear of assassination.
Indications now are that the British will leave
peaceably and that their government will make no attempt to keep them in
Iran. There is some possibility of trouble in the Abadan area if the British
use warships in the evacuation of their nationals.
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4. High Commissioner McClo comments on signing of interzonal trade pact:
High Commissioner McCloy believes that the
Western position would be strong in the event
that it becomes necessary for the Allies to sus-
pend the recently signed interzonai trade pact.
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He states that the USSR and the East Germans were made sufficiently aware
that their present harassing measures in Berlin must cease as a condition for
continued East-West German trade, despite the fact that nothing was agreed
to in writing. McCloy adds that if the Soviet and East German authorities
wish to reimpose restrictions, they will do so regardless of any promises or
commitments, but at least they have been warned that such action may
result in an Allied order to suspend interzonal trade.
Comment: So far, the East Germans have com-
plied with the West's conditions only to the extent that they have reduced the
tax on Berlin autobahn traffic. Interference with parcel post shipments con-
tinues, and there are indications of further delay in the promised reopening
of the vital Rothensee canal lock.
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