CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/11/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02739311
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 16, 1951

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SECURITY INFORMATION
16 November 1951
Copy, No.
47
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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AUTH: Hi7,41-fAir
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. French reluctant to jeopardize European defense by Indochina effort
(page 3).
USSR
2. Comment on conclusion of Soviet-Satellite army maneuvers in Eastern
Europe (page 4).
3.
4.
5.
6.
7. Iraq offers plan to break Anglo-Egyptian impasse (page 7).
FAR EAST
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3.3(h)(2)
Soviet position in Manchuria (page 4).
destruction of Viet Minh by 1953 (page 5). 3.3(h)(2)
Indonesia suggests early solution of New Guinea dispute (page 5).
NEAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE
3.3(h)(2)
8. Resurgent Nazi activity arouses concern (page 7).
9. Italian Budget Minister now favors greater defense expenditure(page 8).
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GENERAL
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French reluctant to jeopardize European defense by Indochina effort: 3.3(h)(2)
The US Ambassador in Pari reports that French
failure to find the means for an "appropriate"
contribution to Western defense is jeopardizing
the "entire European bui14-up" and is leading in-
creasing numbers of deputies to consider abandon-
ment of the Indochina undertaking. Finance
Minister Mayer has told the US Ambassador that
he intends to submit a program entailing cuts in
French reconstruction and investment, NATO contributions and Indochina
operations. Premier Pleven has informed the Ambassador that an Assembly
debate "on the whole political and economic position of France" is imminent
and that the government will ask for a vote of confidence on its policies next
week.
Most French officials recognize that France's
commitments in Indochina preclude a satisfactory solutidn to the problems
involved in establishing the European Defense Community. They believe,
therefore, that France should draw up European Defense Forces arrangements
on the assumption that the Indochina burden will somehow be reduced before
the EDF treaty is ratified.
Comment: Budgetary limitations have already
resulted in a decrease in French contributions to the European Defense Forces.
This in turn has brought about an EDF Conference decision that the number of
military units to be contributed by Germany be reduced from eighteen to twelve.
While earlier reports revealed that France was
facing a drastic cut in either its European or Indochinese military commit-
ments, these are the first 'indications that the French are almost ready to
apply drastic economies in Indochina, even to the point of-threatening a with-
drawal of French forces from thQ area.
TO
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USSR
2. Comment on conclusion of Soviet-Satellite army maneuvers in Eastern
Europe:
3.
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The cycle of field training for Soviet and Satellite
ground forces in Eastern Europe appears to have been completed for 1951,
and troops are returning to winter garrisons. The Soviet Orbit potential for
a surprise attack in Etrope, which is at its height during the annual fall
maneuvers, may be expected to return to normal.
Indications are that the general level of training
achieved in the Satellite armies is not significantly higher than last year.
The lack of significant advances in training indicates that the capabilities of
the Satellite armies remain relatively limited.
The maneuvers also showed that the Satellite
armies have not developed uniformly -- reflecting either the special roles
contemplated for the different countries in Soviet military plans or possibly
varying degrees of responsiveness to Soviet pressures. Although Satellite
ground forces have been increased considerably in recent years, the quality
of the troops, largely conscripted, remains low.
FAR EAST
Soviet position in Manchuria:
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
power in Manchuria is in Chinese Communist
hands, but that important posts are held by
ned Chinese whose devotion to Soviet interests is "complete. "
no Soviet combat units have been observed recently in Harbin
or in Muk en, nor is there evidence of the presence of "international volun-
teers"; and that the Communist authorities, who reportedly intend to "rid
Manchuria of all foreigners" in the next few months, are now encouraging
rather than hindering their departure.
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Comment: Although other Western observers have
also reported that Chinese authority in Manchuria appears undisputed, the
Soviet position in the area, which is dominated by Chinese Stalinists under
the supervision of Soviet advisers, is strong. agree on th3.3(h)(2)
lack of evidence of the presence of "international volunteers" or of Soviet
combat units outside the Port Arthur naval base area. It has long been
assumed that the Chinese Communists intend to expel all remaining Westerners
from Manbhuria. 3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
destruction of Viet Minh by 1953: 3.3(h)(2)
current
French military operations in North Vietnam had
proved very successful and would be ollowed
Promptly by other local offensives. \
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: Viet Minh morale is declining, 3.3(h)(2)
but the rebellion will not be stamped out until a
popular and stable non-Communist government is established. The embryonic
political development of the Vietnamese Government provides no indication
that this will have been accomplished by 1953.
5. Indonesia suggests early solution of New Guinea dispute:
3.3(h)(2)
The Indonesian Government handed the Nether.
lands High Commissioner a memorandum on
12 November suggesting that "in the interests of
good relations" the Dutch-Indonesian dispute
over the sovereignty of West New Guinea be solved within the next several
months. The Indonesian action was motivated by a proposed revision of the
Dutch constitution whereby New Guinea woutd be formally described as part
of the Netherlands Kingdom. _
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Comment: The problem of West New Guinea
sovereignty was not resolved in 1949 when Indonesia gained its independence.
Since that time, the area has been under interim Dutch administration and
has been the subject of intense nationalist feeling.
The Indonesian Government regards the proposed
revision of the Dutch constitution as a high-handed effort by the Netherlands
to impose its sovereignty upon the disputed territory. Indonesian hostility
to the proposed action is such that the government is seriously considering
unilateral abrogation of the Netherlands-Indonesian Union,
NEAR EAST
3.3(h)(2)
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the Sudan. In addition it indicates that any new Egyptian Government, the
creation of which has been widely rumored, would be unlikely to break the
present deadlock by reconsidering the four-power offer without reaching a
prior settlement of the purely Anglo-Egyptian side of the problem.
7. Iraq offers plan to break Anglo-Egyptian impasse:
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3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
Iraq's Prime Minister, Nuri Said, has suggested
a plan to break the current Anglo-Egyptian
impasse. at the
UN General Assembly meetings in Paris, Nun's
plan apparently provides that each Middle Eastern country should have its own
"regular troops" and should also seek "auxiliary troops" from other nations
to supplement its own forces.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Resurgent Nazi activity arouses concern:
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
American officials in West Germany, commenting
on two recent meetings of former SS members,
feel that their speeches partially reflect the
attitude current among extreme nationalist ele-
ments, including some of the generals active in the new veterans' organizations.
There is a tendency in these circles to regard the Western desire for German
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rearmament and a European defense force as belated American recognition
of the Soviet danger and as proof of the fugtness of Hitler's crusade against
the USSR.
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At one of the meetings, attended by 1300 former
SS members in Hamburg, a former Gauleiter addressed the group and an ex-
SS general announced that an international convention of SS men would be
held early in 1952. In Berlin, a former SS leader called for establishment
of "relations with our comrades in the East Zone's People's Police."
Comment: These are the first reported meetings
of SS members as such, although in the past they have participated in
meetings of militaristic and Olitical organizations. This new activity has
aroused much adverse comment in the West German press. The government,
already engaged in a program to fight political extremes, is seeking to ban
the Socialist Reich Party, the leading neo-Nazi organization.
9. Italian Budget Minister now favors greater defense expenditure 3.3(h)(2)
A US official in Rome states that Budget Minister
Pella has indicated a changed attitude toward
greater Italian expenditures for defense. He re-
ports that if Pella can be encouraged in this new
a i u.e, t e merican task of getting an adequate Italian defense program
will be greatly facilitated.
Pella has indicated that for political reasons
Parliament will be presented with a civilian investment program of approxi-
mately the same size as the expanded defense program. However, the
increase in cash expenditures under the civilian investment program will be
spread over several years, while increases in cash expenditures for the
defense program will be telescoped.
Comment: Pella has obstructed an adequate
defense effort. His change Oraufaa on defense spending may in part be
occasioned by the large Italian surpluses in EPU, the reduced level of acti-
vity in the metal-mechanical sectors of Italian industry, and the strong pres-
sure within Italy from industrialists for an adequate defense effort.
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