CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/09/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02745282
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: September 21, 1951

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21 September 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGE-0 TO: IS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUT H 042 4
OA 11"r FIEVIEWER;
4i
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
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1. British oppose Iapanese negotiating treaty with Nationalist China (page 3).
2. Most Manchurian railways reported closed to comniercial traffic (page 3).
NEAR EAST
3. Iranian Shah gloomy over situation (page 4).
4. British-Iranian situation produces new incidents (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Allies defer decision on semi-heavy arms for West German police forces
(page 5).
6. French Socialists refuse to renew electoral alliances with coalition parties
(nage 6).
LATIN AMERICA
3.3(h)(2)
9. US and Chilean officials discuss disposition of Chile's 20 percent copper
quota (page 8).
10. Uruguayan cabinet favors an offer of two destroyer escorts and a regi-
mental combat team for UN service (page 8).
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Der oriuriL i.
GENERAL
British oppose Japanese negotiating treaty with Nationalist China:
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The British Mission Chief in Tokyo has asked the
US Political Adviser for information on Japanese
intentions regarding a bilateral treaty of peace
with the Chinese Nationalist Government. The
official sttitedthat the Brits Foreign Office construes its pre-San Francisco
understanding with Ambassador Dulles to mean that Japan would not make a
choice regarding China until the multilateral treaty comes into effect, and that if
any negotiations were held prior to the return of full sovereignty to japan, it
would be considered a breach of the spirit if not the letter of this understanding.
Comment: The US construes the Dulles-Morrison
understanding regarding Chinese non-participation in the San Francisco con-
ference as preventing the US from encouraging the Japanese to negotiate an
unrestricted agreement with the Chinese Nationalists while the occupation con-
tinues. In response to inquiries from the Nationalist Government, the US
pointed out that should the Nationalists wish to proceed with negotiations prior
to the end of the occupation, the US can give encouragement only if the projected
treaty's provisions apply solely to the people and territory now controlled by
the Nationalist Government.
2. Most Manchurian railways reported closed to commercial traffic:
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The pressure of military traffic in Manchuria
has caused Peiping authorities to suspend for an
indefinite period all passenger and commercial
freight service on most of the Manchurian rail-
way net as well as on Manchuria's only rail link with China proper, the
Peiping-Mukden line 3.3(h)(2)
Comment: The Peiping Railway Bureau last
week reportedly requisitioned for military use all freight cars in the Peiping-
Tientsin area. These reports have not been confirmed, but are significant if
true since the last similar diversion of rail traffic to military use was in the
period from September to November 1950, when the Chinese intervened in
Korea.
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Or.al.11.E1 J.
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Interruptions to rail traffic caused by floods in
the Mukden area during late August and September may be a contributing factor
to the necessity for suspending traffic in North China and Manchuria.
NEAR EAST
3. Iranian Shah gloomy over situation:
In an interview with the British Ambassador,
the Shah was very pessimistic over the future of
Iran under Prime Minister Mossadeq, and said
that the removal of the prime minister would be
cu e a stated that Mossadeq desires to resume negotiations
and inquired what steps the British considered necessary.
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The British Ambassador replied that his govern-
ment would require "written assurances that the Iranian Government was
ready to negotiate seriously in a spirit of goodwill..?? Oral assurances by the
Shah were not considered sufficient.
Comment: The Shah has played no part in the
oil negotiations to date. He has lost considerable prestige and does not exert
any discernible influence on Mossadeq.
While Mossadeq is aware of the increasing
economic and political pressures which are building up against him, and even
though he desires to reopen negotiations, there is no indication that he is
ready to make any significant change in his position.
4. British-Iranian situation produces new incidents:
Five British-owned tugs have been removed
from Iranian territorial waters under escort of
a British destroyer, according to the US
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Embassy in Tehran. Two floating repair docks probably will be similarly
removed. British technicians continue to leave Abadan, and the British
apparently recognize that they will be unwelcome in Iran regardless of the
government in power. 3.3(h)(2)
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Comment: The removal of the tugs has already
brought Iranian charges of theft of National Iranian Oil Company property and
will further convince them of British "duplicity. The actions of both sides
indicate an increasingly uncompromising position.
WESTERN EUROPE
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5. Allies defer decision on semi-heavy arms for West German police forces:
The three-power Special Security Committee
has authorized the West German Federal
Republic to arm both border and mobile police
with normal police weapons. The Germans have
reques e mi-heavy arms, but the Committee deferred its decision on this
point, The British are willing to authorize normal infantry weapons for the
border police, and the French representative indicated partial agreement.
The determining factor will be a definition of
the role the border police is to perform. The British expect it to take the
first shock of any aggression from the east, but both the French and US
representatives were obliged to request governmental instructions on the
question.
Comment: Semi-heavy arms had been agreed
to for the mobile police force authorized a year ago. Since the Germans had
difficulty organizing this group, which is not expected to exceed 5,000 men
by the end of 1951, they have developed the border police, now consisting of
about 10,000 men. The French had blocked the Germans' request for semi-
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heavy equipment in April, 1951, and also secured British agreement to oppose
manufacture of these arms in Germany. The French will probably agree,
however, to arming the border police with medium mortars and antitank
weapons, and can be expected to permit a reserve of such arms for the mobile
police.
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6. French Socialists refuse to renew electoral alliances with coalition parties:
The French Socialist Party's National Council
has issued a belligerent resolution seemingly
ruling out alliances with any other party in the
October cantonal elections. Furthermore, the
keynote address at the council meeting proclaimed the Socialists' refusal to
participate in the government unless the new church-school laws are repealed.
A Socialist spokesman has revealed, however, that the fight against the center
parties would be subordinated to the battle against the Communists and the
Gaullists, and the Socialists will not actively promote the downfall of the
present cabinet.
Comment: The forcefulness of the Socialists'
campaign against aid for church schools is enhanced by the proximity of the
cantonal elections. In the face of sharp Communist competition for the labor
vote and Radical Socialist competition in some areas for the anti-clerical vote,
the Socialists are making a determined fight to retain their strong position in
the departmental councils, where they now have 25 percent of the seats to be
filled in October. The current Socialist policy of opposing the government on
certain vital issues is a continuous threat to its existence, but can be expected
to stop short of precipitating De Gaulle's return to power.
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SEC11271:
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defense of the Western Hemisphere and for Unified Command service pursuant
to the UN "Uniting for Peace" resolution. Further, the cabinet approved the
"organizing, equipping, and training of a regimental combat team of ground
troops for UN service." A letter to this effect is being forwarded to the UN
' Secretary-General.
Comment: The Urguayan Constitution requires
that Congress approve the departure of national forces from the Republic.
Columbia is thus far the only Latin American country to have supplied troops
to the UN.
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LATIN AMERICA
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9. US and Chilean officials discuss disposition of Chile's 20 percent copper quota:
The Minister of Economy advised a US Embassy
official that Chile would have difficulty in disposing
of its 20 percent share of Chilean copper output
at a price exceeding 27. 5 cents per pound without
ma mg sa es questionable brokers. Shortly after this conversation, orders
were issued to stop a thousand ton shipment to Holland.
President Gonzalez Videla stated to the US Am-
bassador on 18 September that he was emphatically against leaks of copper ore,
but he reiterated the Chilean stand "regarding desperate need for dollars and
cashing maximum from the 20 percent quota." The President suggested that
US and Chilean missions in Europe should work closely to check on all doubtful
Consignees. The US Embassy comments that "this is encouraging since the
Ministry of Economy has been pressuring Anaconda to speed shipments to
questionable consignees."
Comment: The price of 27. 5 cents per pound
was established in the recent US-Chilean copper agreement which allotted
80 percent of the output to be sold through the US firms. Other information
indicates that Chilean Government measures to prevent transshipment of copper
to the Soviet bloc are not entirely satisfactory. 3.3(h)(2)
The Minister's statement and Chile's expressed
preoccupation over its dollar position may be in part calculated to justify
eventually an increase in the price of conner.
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10. Uruguayan cabinet favors an offer of two destroyer escorts and a regimental
combat team for UN service:
The cabinet on 19 September unanimously approved
the offering of two destroyer escort $ � about to
be purchased from the US -- for the common
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